Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, some notable performance early in the season, including from veterans Anze Kopitar, Steven Stamkos, and Erik Karlsson. There are notes on Jesse Puljujarvi, Jordan Kyrou, Joel Farabee, Eeli Tolvanen, and more.
#1 The early scoring leader in the NHL is Anze Kopitar, and while he is not going to score at the same pace (eight points in three games) over the long haul, there are reasons to be optimistic about his production. For one, he has 13 shots on goal in three games (4.33 per game) and four of his five goals have been scored at even strength. In the past five seasons, Kopitar has averaged only 2.08 shots on goal per game so if he is going to increase his shot output (and it’s far too early to know if this increase is for real) then Kopitar could be much more dangerous offensively.
#2 No one is going to feel bad for the Tampa Bay Lightning, the team that has won back-to-back Stanley Cups, but with Nikita Kucherov likely out for a significant amount of time, they will once again have to generate offense while missing one of the premier scoring threats in the game. Fortunately, the Lightning do have Steven Stamkos, who has seven points (3 G, 4 A) in four games and has 16 shots on goal in those four games. It is well established that Stamkos is one of the premier shooters in the game but if he would keep the volume up and stay healthy, he could still be one of the top goal-scorers again. Stamkos is just two seasons removed from a 45-goal campaign in 2018-2019.
#3 The past couple of seasons in San Jose have been less than ideal for defenseman Erik Karlsson but his first couple of games this year have brought some interesting results. For one thing, he has four points (1 G, 3 A) but Karlsson also averaged 19:54 of ice time in those two games. He played 20:07 per game as a rookie, in 2008-2009, the only season in his career in which Karlsson has played less than 23 minutes per game.
#4 Early returns for the Detroit Red Wings have been more encouraging than might have been anticipated and part of the reason is that Tyler Bertuzzi has scored five goals in three games. It might be worth fantasy managers considering the idea of selling high on Bertuzzi because he has scored those five goals on eight shots, a sizzling 62.5% shooting percentage. There is also the matter of him missing the games in Canada because he is not vaccinated, a situation that will start this weekend when the Red Wings are in Montreal.
#5 With Washington star centre Nicklas Backstrom sidelined to start the season, the Capitals needed Evgeny Kuznetsov to step up as the number one centre and he has responded in a big way. Playing more than 20 minutes per game, Kuznetsov has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 11 shots on goal in three games. As long as Backstrom remains out of the lineup, Kuznetsov ought to be in the spotlight for the Capitals.
#6 There is always optimism for someone who is expected to skate alongside Connor McDavid and Jesse Puljujarvi is no different. He had a career-high 25 points (15 G, 10 A) in 55 games last season so while there is optimism it tends to come with some limits. Puljujarvi might be ready to push beyond those limits, though. His ice time is up to 17:40 per game and he has contributed six points (2 G, 4 A) and 10 shots on goal in three games.
#7 St. Louis Blues right winger Jordan Kyrou got off to a quick start last season, scoring 12 points (5 G, 7 A) in the first 10 games, and he has burst out of the gate this season, too, producing seven points (2 G, 5 A) and eight shots on goal in three games. The Blues have a lot of scoring depth, but Kyrou is pushing to secure a bigger role.
#8 Anaheim Ducks right winger Jakob Silfverberg had been a reliable second-line scorer for quite a while before he managed just 16 points in 47 games last season. He had ranged between 39 and 49 points in each of the previous six seasons. Silfverberg is off to a productive start this season, putting up six points (1 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in the first four games, playing with Isac Lundestrom and Mason McTavish initially, Sam Steel has since stepped in for the injured McTavish.
#9 Philadelphia Flyers winger Joel Farabee is another player who had a fantastic start last season, producing four points (1 G, 3 A) on opening night and 19 points (10 G, 9 A) in his first 19 games. He is sizzling hot to start this season, too, with six points (3 G, 3 A) and eight shots on goal in the first three games.
#10 When the Florida Panthers announced before the start of the season that Sergei Bobrovsky would be their No. 1 netminder, skepticism reigned and justifiably so. Bobrovsky signed a seven-year, $70 million contract in the summer of 2019 and followed that with a .902 save percentage in 81 games for the Panthers over the next two seasons. But in the seven seasons before signing that big ticket, when he was in Columbus, Bobrovsky had a .921 save percentage and won two Vezina Trophies, so he has some pedigree. He has also stopped 72 of 77 shots (.935 SV%) in two starts, but Bobrovsky may be looking over his shoulder at rookie Spencer Knight all season, or at least until Knight overtakes him for the starting job.
#11 Last season was a relative disappointment for San Jose Sharks winger Timo Meier, who scored on just 7.7% of his shots on his way to 31 points (12 G, 19 A) in 54 games. The Sharks have only played two games this season but in those two games, Meier has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal. Even among the small samples that we are dealing with this early in the season, the two-game samples are especially small, but it is encouraging if Meier is going to be generating shots at a high level, even if it is not going to be at the rate of 7.50 per game.
#12 One of the players that I liked for the Seattle Kraken coming into this season was Jared McCann, who rode some high percentages on his way to 32 points (14 G, 18 A) in 43 games for the Pittsburgh Penguins. While there is likely going to be some regression in his percentages, McCann is also looking at more ice time with the Kraken and he has produced five points (3 G, 2 A) in five games to start the season. He started the season centering Seattle’s first line but has moved to left wing on the second line since Yanni Gourde made his season debut in Tuesday’s loss at New Jersey.
#13 Injuries have hit the Vegas Golden Knights hard, especially on the top line, as wingers Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone are both injured. Enter Evgenii Dadonov, who had a rough time in Ottawa last season, but he is a three-time 25-goal scorer and he led Vegas forwards in even strength ice time (16:30) during Wednesday’s loss to St. Louis.
#14 While the Toronto Maple Leafs have not been scoring a lot as a team, right winger William Nylander has picked up where he left off in the playoffs last season. Through four games this season, Nylander has four points (2 G, 2 A) along with 18 shots on goal and he has been the Maple Leafs’ most consistently dangerous offensive player. Now that Auston Matthews has returned to the Toronto lineup, Nylander gets an upgrade at centre, with John Tavares moving back to his more familiar slot.
#15 Nashville Predators winger Eeli Tolvanen made his mark as a rookie last season, scoring 22 points (11 G, 11 A) in 40 games but there was reason to be suspicious about his production because he had managed a modest 65 shots on goal, not enough volume to expect him to be a consistent scoring threat. While Tolvanen has just one goal in three games to start this season, he has put 16 shots on goal in those three games. If he can improve his shot rate, even if it’s not going to continue at more than five per game, it would be easier to buy Tolvanen having sustainable production.
#16 Tyler Toffoli was the Montreal Canadiens most dangerous forward – possibly their best player – last season and he has been held without a point as Montreal has lost its first four games this season. Not all hope is lost, however, as Toffoli has generated 12 shots on goal and that is consistent with his shot rate (2.95 per game) across the past four seasons. Throughout his career, Toffoli has seen fluctuating shooting percentages, ranging from a career-low 5.8% in 2018-2019 to 17.7%, a career high that he set last season. The most reasonable outcome is for his shooting percentage to fall somewhere in the middle of that range.
#17 The Edmonton Oilers have put goaltender Mike Smith in the injured list, which suddenly makes Mikko Koskinen very important in the Oilers’ plans. Koskinen struggled last season, finishing with an .899 save percentage in 26 games, so the Oilers desperately needed Smith to play well. And he did. But now, Koskinen has an opportunity and if he could even play like he did in his first two seasons for the Oilers, when he had a .911 save percentage in 93 games, he could offer some value while Smith is on the shelf.
#18 Hopes are high for Anaheim Ducks centre Trevor Zegras, a leading candidate for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie after scoring 13 points in 24 games for the Ducks last season. Zegras has just one assist and 10 shots on goal in four games this season but that might make him a decent buy-low candidate. The Ducks focus this season has to be on the development of young players and finding out if Zegras can become a No. 1 centre should be part of that process.
#19 As with any of these statistics, a super small sample size warning is assumed, but among forwards that have played at least 15 5-on-5 minutes, Calgary Flames centre Sean Monahan has the highest expected goals for per 60 minutes (5.88), which indicates that the Flames have at least been getting quality chances when Monahan has been on the ice. So, naturally, he was demoted to fourth line at Flames practice. Always remember, coaching decisions can alter a player’s outlook in an instant.
#20 I do not know just how much credence to put into the 3-0 start of the Buffalo Sabres – I suspect not much – but if the Sabres are going to be more competitive than expected, maybe there will be some potential fantasy value on that roster. Veteran wingers Kyle Okposo (2 G, 1 A) and Jeff Skinner (1 G, 2 A) are among the players contributing early and they might be worth considering, at least in deeper leagues.