I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Troy Terry continues his scoring streak, Nick Suzuki is surging after a slow start, and Chandler Stephenson should not be overlooked in Vegas.
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#1 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry is riding a 12-game point streak, having recorded a point in every Ducks game since the opener when he played just 8:35 at Winnipeg. The value play may be shifting on Terry. He came into the season with modest expectations, but this point streak has elevated his stature and now that he is widely known, there might be value in trying to trade him for a more established player.
Terry has 16 points (9 G, 7 A) and 29 shots on goal during the 12-game streak. He has also scored on 31.0% of his shots so even if there is real improvement in Terry’s game, there is almost assuredly going to be regression coming for his shooting percentage.
#2 As the Montreal Canadiens stumbled out of the gate this season, so too did their No. 1 centre, Nick Suzuki, who had one assist through six games. Since then, Suzuki has produced 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 27 shots on goal in eight games. He is creating chances and making the high-end skill plays that are expected of him as the Habs’ offensive leader.
#3 While his name briefly popped into Jack Eichel trade rumors, Matthew Tkachuk has not let that phase him at all and he has been a force for the Flames. He has nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 27 shots on goal in the past seven games
#4 Last season’s Norris Trophy winner, Rangers defenceman Adam Fox, really vaulted into consideration when his offensive game picked up last season. He scored 40 points (4 G, 36 A) in his last 39 games last season, despite not recording a point in the final six games. Fox has opened this season with 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 13 games, which leads all defencemen and ties Fox with Artemi Panarin for the team lead.
#5 Naturally, a lot was made of the Vegas Golden Knights acquiring Jack Eichel, with expectations that Eichel would super-charge Vegas’ top line. When everyone has been healthy in Vegas, that has been the domain of Chandler Stephenson, who has continued to produce, even with injuries taking Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone out of the lineup. In the past eight games, Stephenson has contributed nine points (3 G, 6 A) but only 13 shots on goal.
#6 While the Vancouver Canucks try to get more out of star centre Elias Pettersson, they have been able to lean on J.T. Miller, who has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 13 games. He is averaging 22:25 time on ice per game, which ranks third among all forwards, behind only Leon Draisaitl (22:51) and Connor McDavid (22:30).
#7 One of the challenges in fantasy hockey is that sometimes there are players that produce for fantasy purposes and maybe their all-around game does not match that production. Consider defencemen like Seth Jones and Tyson Barrie. Jones, in his first season with the Chicago Blackhawks after an offseason trade from Columbus, has 12 points (1 G, 11 A) and 45 shots on goal in 14 games. He is also getting soundly outshot and the Blackhawks have been outscored 16-8 during 5-on-5 play with Jones on the ice.
#8 Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie is in a similar position. Barrie led all defencemen in scoring last season and has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 11 games this season. He has been fortunate enough to not get outscored because Barrie is getting outshot substantially. His -10.0 CFRel% is sixth worst among defencemen to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes. Patrik Nemeth, Brian Dumoulin, Ty Smith, Marco Scandella, and Kevin Shattenkirk are the five defencemen getting outshot worse than Barrie relative to their teammates. But proximity to McDavid and Draisaitl ensures that Barrie will put up points and that means he will have fantasy value.
#9 For a player who has never surpassed the 31 points that he scored in each of his first two seasons, Minnesota Wild forward Ryan Hartman offers some sneaky fantasy value. It may be short term, but this isn’t just about Hartman scoring five points (4 G, 1 A) in the past five games. The more intriguing part is that Hartman has 38 shots on goal in 11 games this season, a rate of 3.45 per game, which is a massive spike from the 1.45 shots on goal per game he had last season. When it comes to seeking out sustainable production, hunting down players that are consistently getting shots is a good approach.
#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jaden Schwartz started slowly, with one assist in six games, but has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in seven games since. In those seven games, Schwartz has 22 shots on goal and is averaging 19:34 time on ice per game, both of which are good indications that he has been getting good opportunities to produce.
#11 Fresh off his highlight reel overtime goal at Montreal, Los Angeles Kings left winger Adrian Kempe has goals in four straight games and has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 21 shots on goal in the past seven games. With Viktor Arvidsson out, there is an opportunity for Kempe to play with Anze Kopitar and that is a good place to be.
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#12 Injuries contributed to Colorado Avalanche defenceman Bowen Byram playing just 19 games last season, so he remains rookie eligible and the fourth pick in the 2019 Draft may very well find himself in the Calder Trophy discussion. Devon Toews is still recovering from shoulder surgery and has not played yet for the Avalanche this season. That has given Byram ample opportunity to show his stuff and he has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) while playing more than 21 minutes per game. That is an impressive start for a 20-year-old defenceman.
#13 The San Jose Sharks are giving third year blueliner Mario Ferraro a big role this season and he is running with it. Playing more than 25 minutes per game, Ferraro does have four points (1 G, 3 A) in the past four games, but his fantasy hook really comes from 25 hits and 35 blocked shots in 11 games. Those peripheral numbers matter, too.
#14 The Columbus Blue Jackets drafted Sonny Milano 16th overall in the 2014 Draft and did not get much out of him. Milano showed some potential but ultimately had 42 points (20 G, 22 A) in 116 games for Columbus before he was traded to Anaheim. He had five points (2 G, 3 A) in 15 games for the Ducks coming into this season but is getting more of an opportunity now and making the most of it. Milano has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in nine games this season, averaging a career high 15:47 time on ice per game. This is still small sample success for Milano but it’s worth keeping him on your radar in case this is his breakout season.
#15 Bruins right winger David Pastrnak has managed a mediocre eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 10 games but while that qualifies as disappointing for a star scorer like Pastrnak, he has 45 shots in that time, and 4.5 shots on goal per game is a career high. That does not guarantee that prime Pastrnak is just around the corner but if you’re going to buy low, doing it on a player who is firing a ton of pucks is usually a good play. Even better when it is a player who has proven that he is one of the premier goal-scorers in the league.
#16 Anthony Duclair started the season with goals in each of the first three games, even though he was barely playing – getting an average of 10:45 time on ice per game. He has climbed the Panthers depth chart, getting back on the top line with Carter Verhaeghe and Aleksander Barkov. In his past eight games, Duclair has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal while playing nearly 16 minutes per game.
#17 Red Wings rookie defenceman Moritz Seider has been every bit as good as advertised, and then some. He did have 28 points in 41 games for Rogle in the Swedish Hockey League last season, so his production is not entirely unexpected, but Seider has recorded 11 points (2 G, 9 A) in his first 14 games for the Red Wings while playing more than 22 minutes per game. Along with teammate Lucas Raymond, the Red Wings have strong Calder Trophy contenders.
#18 Goaltending is unpredictable and frustrating and can ruin your fantasy season. It can also make your fantasy season but who knows which goaltender will provide those positive results? Just take a look at last year’s top five vote-getters for the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. The winner was Marc-Andre Fleury, who is having a disaster of a season in Chicago. Runner-up was Andrei Vasilevskiy and, okay, he is still really good playing behind a strong team and his recent play has been top notch. Third in voting was Philipp Grubauer, who could have reasonably expected this season to be more challenging, going from Colorado to Seattle, but there has been a steep drop there. Fourth was Connor Hellebuyck, who has not played to his typically high standards. Fifth was Semyon Varlamov, who was recovering from offseason surgery and might have lost his job to Ilya Sorokin. It is early and lots can change, not least of all goaltending performance, but there are fantasy managers who thought they were making a safe play in goal and have been left with disappointing results.
#19 According to Natural Stat Trick, there are seven teams that are generating more than 2.50 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. Some of these teams might be expected, like Toronto and Carolina at 1-2, but there are some surprises. Minnesota, Calgary, Florida, Pittsburgh, and Detroit round out the top seven and it might offer some encouragement to select players from those teams.
#20 At the other end of the spectrum, there are five teams with fewer than 2.00 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. That group includes Chicago, San Jose, New York Rangers, Arizona, and Vancouver. That seems troubling for teams like the Rangers and Canucks, that would have expected to be more dangerous offensively, maybe not as troubling for Chicago and Arizona, teams that appear to be in real trouble. San Jose? They probably need to generate more offence if they are going to be legitimately competitive. In any case, it’s worth having a read on team-level results when looking for fantasy value, because you might want to think twice about some players on these teams until these rates start to improve.
Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.