Team of the Week: Vegas Golden Knights
There were a lot of worthy teams to choose from this week, but we’re going to focus on the resurging Vegas Golden Knights, who have salvaged a terrible start in winning eight of their last 10 games. The message through the first two months was how they had to weather the storm while their top forwards returned from injury. Everyone not named Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith has been on the shelf and they have another one waiting with the recent trade for superstar center Jack Eichel), so they have to do what they can to stay above water while the cavalry gets healthy.
It looked like a tough sell at the beginning of the month. They couldn’t score, injuries resorted their team to more of a pop-gun offense and their team defense looked in shambles. Since November, they’ve righted the ship and this past week was a sign that they might be turning the corner, winning all three of their games. The most impressive of which being their 3-2 victory over a good Minnesota team where they got a couple of goals from deep in their organizational depth chart in the form of Paul Cotter and Jonas Røndbjerg.
What I love about these clips is that it’s two low-profile rookies scoring goals that you would see in almost any Vegas game the past few years. Search Alex Tuch highlights, and they would look just like this. The forward finds an opening, waits for a pass and then lets his skill do the work in a one-on-one matchup. Vegas has gotten a lot of these looks this year, but they’ve had a devil of a time converting on them. Just ask Keegan Kolesar, who is still waiting for his first goal of the year despite generating 27 scoring chances in 15 games. Vegas has been begging for anyone in their bottom-six to see the scoresheet and they’re finally started to get that this past week with these two call-ups making the most of their chances. Cotter was sent back to the AHL after this game to make room for the returning Mark Stone, but he and Røndbjerg made very good first impressions that could go a long way if Vegas’ other depth forwards continue to struggle.
While the goals were nice, this does illustrate one of the problems Vegas has had this year, which is the lack of sustained possessions and playing more of a pop-gun offense compared to year’s past. With the exception of Smith and Marchessault, Vegas forwards have had to do most of their damage off the rush and it’s put more stress on their defense. Not just in terms of trading chances, but with how aggressive they play in the offensive zone. The Knight’s defense was one of the best in the league at generating chances and acting as the fourth forward. They had more shots generated off cross-seam passes and off plays from behind the goal line than any other team last year. The strategy hasn’t changed this year, but the dissipating forward talent has taken its toll on their defense a bit. Jared Spurgeon’s goal from Thursday’s game is a good example of that.
Notice how Nic Hague (14 on Vegas) pinches along the left wall after the dump-in. It’s a routine play for Vegas, but the Wild make a quick exit. There’s a forward back to cover, but his man doesn’t score the goal. Instead, it’s a cutting Jared Spurgeon, who wins the race against Hague (who had his momentum carrying him the other way when he missed the puck on his pinch) to score the goal. If you look at a lot of the goals Vegas has given up this year, a lot of it is from the defense being over aggressive while the puck is in front of them and it’s how they have to play while their top forwards are on the mend. Sometimes it works, as we’ve seen with Shea Theodore having four points in his last three games but even then, most of his goals have come off faceoff plays and d-to-d passes rather than off the rush, which is what Vegas has struggled at. Theodore and Pietrangelo have been under scrutiny for their defensive play this year and while that is starting to correct itself, it’s hard to ignore the trickledown effect from the forward injuries.
Vegas’ three most relied on defenders are in the “overworked” quadrant of this chart, which means they’re getting targeted by opposing forwards a lot and they’re giving up a high number of chances when other teams enter the zone against them. If you look at their game-by-game stats from an Expected Goals perspective, you’ll see that it’s a lot of very good games mixed with some awful games. So, there is a major feast-or-famine element to their defense now and the team’s results have followed suit. Is this a result of their defense playing more aggressive in the offensive zone and getting burned when their risks don’t pay off? Vegas runs their offense through their defense corps more than most teams and if the forwards aren’t as in-sync as they were last year, guys like Pietrangelo and Theodore are going to get stretched more. The puck either has to stay higher in the zone or the defense has to do more to retrieve pucks if the forwards can’t create any sustained pressure. Vegas’ top-four is good enough to handle this (although getting Martinez back for more than one game would be nice), but there is a higher risk of turnovers leading to rush chances the other way with one defenseman being left on an island. Is this something that can be corrected once the team gets healthy? Possibly, but you’re going to see some extreme results on both sides of the coin from the Knights’ top players until then.
The good news for the Knights is that the reinforcements are on their way. Mark Stone returned this Saturday, Alec Martinez returned before taking a skate to the face early in the Minnesota game and they have a major addition coming in a few months with Jack Eichel. That and they’ve managed to weather the storm with this recent 10-game stretch and will have to tread water until everyone is healthy. Vegas is still a good team who likely be in a playoff spot come May, but some of these cracks in the armor show that they aren’t the runaway favorites in the division anymore.
Top Microstat Performances:
- Connor McDavid vs. Bruins
McDavid is in a class of his own when it comes to how ridiculous he is in transition, so I’m going to make an effort not to feature him every week. It’s tough to do that when he has a game like he did against Boston last Thursday. McDavid carried the puck in on all nine of his zone entries, three of which led to scoring chances (which is really tough to do in one game). He also contributed to nine shots at even strength, producing three scoring chances and setting up two.
Rewatching the footage was interesting because it was more like a chess match than McDavid just dominating from the onset. He could gain the line against Boston’s defense but couldn’t get past the first layer for most of the first period. Then in the second he started to find openings, flying the zone for a breakaway on one opportunity and retrieving the puck in the corner to setup Zach Hyman for a goal late in the second period. He also led a couple of give-and-gos. He finished the game with only one point, but it could have easily been another three point night for him with some better luck/finishing.
- Roman Josi vs. Blues
Nashville is low-key one of the hottest teams in the league, currently riding a three game win streak while boasting some very strong underlying numbers at five-on-five. It’s been a by-committee effort from them. Matt Duchene found his scoring touch again, Mikael Granlund is producing, Luke Kunin is off to a great start, but it all comes back to their captain Roman Josi. The star defenseman has been the gold standard for puck-rushing defensemen in recent seasons and we saw a little of that in their overtime win over St. Louis in Thursday night.
Josi had eight zone entries, seven of which were with control of the puck. It’s a high number for a defenseman, but a typical game for Josi. However, the way he did this was a little different than in years past. Instead of going end-to-end, he wasn’t the first guy back to retrieve the puck on a lot of these plays, deferring to his partner Dante Fabbro. Why this is important is that it gives him more options when carrying the puck through neutral ice. He’s already by the first forechecker, so there’s going to be more open ice and more support options with him. It gives Nashville a different layer to their offense and makes their rush chances a little more dangerous instead of having Josi creating something out of nothing. Josi might get all the stats, but all of Nashville’s roster deserves some recognition for how they’ve played the past 10 games.
It’s amazing what starting the season with a couple of goals can do for your confidence. Anaheim’s Tory Terry has been on fire to start the year with 20 points in 15 games and Sunday night’s game against Vancouver was just another night at the office for him. Always very skilled and active with his stick, the roadblock for Terry was turning highlight reel plays into consistent results. So far, he’s been able to do that and then some.
He had the puck on a string all night, producing three scoring chances and setting up 15 shots on goal (including power plays). Everything just looked so easy for him, as he was doing a little of everything. Quarterbacking Anaheim’s power play from the right wall, helping them lead breakouts (6 exits with possession), leading rushes (6 zone entries) and being a good support player in the offensive zone when he wasn’t the one spearheading the rush. Looking like a nice depth piece who could maybe hit 40 points in a good season, Terry has played like Anaheim’s version of Mark Stone to start the year. Might be an extreme comparison, but he really has been that good and it will be interesting to see where he levels out at once the points stop coming so easily. He probably won’t shoot at 30% forever, but he’s still an incredibly fun player to watch. Those who can’t stay up for Anaheim games are in for a treat as the Ducks make their way through the East Coast this coming week.
What’s Wrong With…?
Seattle Kraken
Unlike Vegas, the Kraken’s start has resembled more of what people expect from an expansion team, winning only four of their first 15 games and sitting at the bottom of the Pacific Division. They’re a weird team to breakdown because on one hand, it’s an expansion team that didn’t have much offensive firepower heading into the year. On the other hand, they invested heavily in team defense and goaltending both in the expansion draft and free agency. They currently have the worst team save percentage in the league (both at 5v5 and in all situations) with their starter Philipp Grubauer posting an ugly .880 mark over 12 games.
I tend to defer to goalie experts since it’s not my area of expertise, but it’s hard to believe that Grubauer would become a replacement level goalie one year removed from being a Vezina finalist. Even when you factor in how his current situation is a total 180 from where he was in Colorado, where he maybe saw 10 scoring chances a night at most, it was tough to see him playing this poorly. Some of the goals in the Anaheim game were tough to watch, particularly the two point shot goals he let in.
These are the types of goals that will probably be stopped more frequently as the year goes on. The Kraken’s five-on-five offense has started to come around, sitting in the middle of the pack in terms of goal-scoring (a hot streak from Jordan Eberle is mostly to thank for that), so the goaltending will likely trend towards the league average. Grubauer should settle in and learn his defense’s tendencies more, which should lead to fewer leaky goals.
Their power play, on the other hand, will be a tougher riddle to solve. Only the depleted Pittsburgh Penguins have scored fewer power play goals per 60 minutes this year and even that is slightly boosted from the late tally they scored against Minnesota. The lack of a go-to guy hurts the most here, as they’ve resorted to Mark Giordano point shots as their default play with Morgan Geekie firing one-timers from the right circle at the secondary option. Their best option, Jordan Eberle, has only one power play goal all season because he’s stuck waiting for a pass in the slot or a rebound in front of the net. Getting Jared McCann’s shot back in the lineup helps, but the Kraken have had a tough time getting the puck on the stick of their best player’s when playing with the man advantage.
They’ve gone to some interesting tactics to fix this, one of which included putting the towering defenseman Jamie Oleksiak in the netfront role, but nothing has really worked. They can only score if they get a passing lane open below the faceoff circles, which are pretty easy to eliminate if you’re a penalty killer. They have some players who are patient and creative enough to get the pass through the box from the halfwall (hi Marcus Johansson) to complement some of their more tenacious netfront players like Yanni Gourde, so it will be interesting to see if they can get something to work here as the season progresses.