Going into the 2021-22 WHL season, all eyes were on the Winnipeg ICE. After four seasons of winning just 66 of 284 games in Kootenay, the team has rebuilt themselves into a menace of a hockey team, averaging over five goals per game and anchoring themselves as easy favourites to win the Ed Chynoweth Cup in a few months. While there are older WHL veterans in Connor McClennon, Mikey Milne, Jakin Smallwood and Carson Lambos leading the way, an exceptional group of high draft picks are making their mark. Matthew Savoie and Conor Geekie have been under the microscope for years, and we finally are seeing both of these players together and both have been significant cogs in the machine that is the Winnipeg ICE. With regards to the 2022 NHL Draft, both of these players have had valuations that really run the gamut. As of my most recent survey of rankings, Matthew Savoie has been evaluated as anywhere from the second spot on some lists to as far back as ninth on others. For Geekie, things are even more drastic, ranging from second, to the 20s. With a good sample tracked of both of these players, the McKeen's video team thought it was wise to take a look into the differences between these two players, where the valuation diverges between the two, and if there’s more to the picture painted by these players’ raw point totals.
A high-level comparison of Geekie and Savoie in terms of production.
We’ll start by digging into the production and dig deeper afterwards. From a glance, the advantage goes to Savoie here. At time of writing, Savoie sits at a 104-point pace for a full WHL season while Geekie trails at a pace of 76, however when removing points scored on the power play, Geekie gains a small advantage with 28 points to Savoie’s 26. These two players don’t often share the ice together in my viewings, and according to Pick224, Savoie does land both primary and secondary points on a higher percentage of even strength goals, with primary points on 51% of Winnipeg’s goals scored while he’s on the ice to Savoie’s 44.2%, but the point is that when the game is at even strength, both of these players’ impact on the game are remarkably similar. My Cat% metrics summarize a players’ even strength goals for and against rates relative to when they’re off the ice, and the story is even more curious. Savoie’s offensive catalyst percentage sits at a solid 29%, especially for a team as strong as Winnipeg, but Geekie’s balloons to 61.2%, likely driven by high end linemates that lead that team in Milne and Smallwood. On the defensive side, Savoie gains a significant advantage with a 27% reduction in even strength goals compared to Geekie’s 23% boost to the same. These two players are significantly more comparable on the raw production side, but these are also players I’ve tracked three games of to this point, so is there more to the story in my early findings?
Here is where things get very, very interesting, with Geekie surpassing Savoie in many of the microevents tracked at 5v5.
I know I just threw an absolute pile of numbers at you in one image, but we’ll get there together working our way down from the top. I split my tracked data into three categories encompassing possession and passing data, shooting data, and transition data. When it comes to possession, almost across the board, Geekie holds a few advantages with more dangerous shots in the offensive zone (DSAT/60), fewer dangerous shots against in the defensive zone (DSATA/60), and more significant offensive threat (individual dangerous pass attempts + dangerous shot attempts). Savoie does assist significantly more shot attempts than Geekie (ShA), but moving down to the shooting section, Geekie is getting far, far more chances on his own from dangerous spaces on the ice. Just 25% of Savoie’s shots at 5v5 have come from dangerous areas. In fact, Savoie’s raw volume of shots is significantly lower than many high-end forwards in this draft. His 6.5 total shots per 60 trails Geekie’s rate of dangerous shots. It would also be important to note that so far, Savoie and Geekie are creating a comparable percentage of the shot attempts taken by the ICE while they are in play (SATCr, meaning shot assists plus shot attempts weighted for danger level). In my view, it seems that in the offensive zone, Savoie is sticking to the perimeter looking for slot passes or pressure defusing passes to blueliners to create these shot attempts with a clear lack of ability or willingness to get into the middle of the ice to finish off his own stick, and Geekie is in that space creating for himself and linemates more frequently at this level.
The transitions section is where things get really interesting. We’ll get into the video side to see why these results are the way they are, but anecdotally, I expected Savoie to be a significantly quicker, more involved puck transporter, using that speed to chase defensively and apply pressure when necessary on defensive rushes. In reality, Geekie is a significantly more involved player in the offensive direction, at 33% offensive transition involvement to Matthew Savoie’s 22% (OZTINV%). Yes, it’s only three games and things may line up more evenly down the road, but in my view, this passes the smell test for reasons we’ll get into later. While they’re comparably successful at transporting the puck up the ice around 64% efficiency (OCZT%), Geekie carries another advantage defensively in comparable workloads, allowing control on 37.5% of defensive transitions to Savoie’s even 50/50 split (DCZT%). 50% isn’t terrible, but it’s certainly on the higher end, especially for a forward with solid defensive transition involvement like Savoie has been. It’s very difficult to ignore that in terms of zone transitions (ZT) going both directions, Geekie is sitting at a volume that sits 39.6% higher than Savoie. On one hand, Geekie is, in my view, playing with better linemates, but Savoie is ideally an NHL game changing talent that should be able to drive a line with anyone he plays with. At 5v5, a few things are abundantly clear. Geekie’s getting significantly more and better chances for himself, his possession data is significantly better, and he’s involved in transporting the puck up the ice significantly more often, but Savoie has a bit of an advantage as a perimeter playmaker once the puck is in the offensive zone and his rate of pass completion is quite a bit higher.
When it comes to prospect analysis, the important area to keep in mind is how these results are generated and where the player could improve or reinforce strengths in the coming years. There are things players can get away with in junior that they likely won’t in the NHL, and there are things players may struggle with in junior that needs time, experience and refinement to hone positive traits that get them to the player they can be. With Savoie and Geekie, this is where the video, and in turn, the uncertainty steps in. We’ll start with the obvious question: “Will, if you’ve done all this work and Savoie’s production is somewhat overstated, why have him ~15 spots ahead of Geekie?” which is perfectly reasonable!
When I look at Matthew Savoie, I see a talented, high pace offensive forward who just isn’t quite quick or skilled enough to bring that raw talent to 5v5 play right now. He’s agile to get around defenders in pursuit of the puck but seems to lack true separation speed. If he gains some space, he’ll attempt to use skill at high pace to pull pucks into new lanes, but the skill level isn’t quite quick or deceptive enough to do so often, and he lacks a step of quickness to step into that space and make a play. He seems to much rather pull a puck into open space and use his reach to make a play without getting much in the way of power behind his passes in these situations. On that note, while I would say strength is an issue, Savoie doesn’t back down under pressure and at least attempts to fight through it. This isn’t a lazy player whatsoever, but in my view, Savoie is a player who could still be working his way down the developmental pathway that leads to an electrifying speed-first scorer but hasn’t quite hit the finish line.
He possesses strong offensive zone vision, able to make one-touch passes from the perimeter into the middle of the ice but can fall victim to a bit of tunnel vision with extended puck possession that keeps him on the perimeter with his head down trying to force himself through pressure. Savoie’s “quick but not quick enough” predicament can haunt him defensively at times, leading to that 50/50 DCZT% split being caught flatfooted or soft on loose pucks as opponents pick him off and race past him. Savoie does possess strong speed generation on his turns and tries to gain body positioning and on lateral movements across the ice to make plays, he’s had some success there, which may feed into why I think he could be a good centre down the line with how he’s able to create speed better in more open ice, supporting defenses on breakouts and using crossovers and turns to generate quickness that could push opponents to their heels. As it stands right now, at 5v5, Savoie is a player that I believe is too easily countered and mitigated from being a truly dominant force in junior hockey. Paste mobile, responsible defensive players to him and you can expose his trouble to gain space under pressure. If you keep close along the boards, you’ll expose his trouble to get to the middle of the ice. In situations where Savoie has the advantage on the power play, it logically follows that he’s much freer to flex his raw talent with the extra space and more conservative defenses. It’s much easier to find and create open space when you have an extra man on the ice, and in those situations, Savoie is undeniably electric. Unfortunately, NHL coaches don’t often have time for offensive players that need the power play to spread their wings.
- A selection of the agility, resilience and perimeter passing skill Savoie brings, with an example of how it has limited his 5v5 impact defensively.
Switching over to Geekie, things are funnily similar, but he has an advantage in a few key areas that can really help him in the junior levels. Where Savoie has a bit of a lack of immediate quickness to get into open space and push play, Geekie has the same issue, but he’s just… bigger. But where Savoie lacks that level of skill necessary to make a dangerous play in tight quarters, Geekie uses his body, feet, and hands in tandem to adapt to pressure, find new lanes, and make plays more often. Geekie possesses more size and power on his frame, giving him the ability to shrug off pressure to push deep into the offensive zone on rushes more than Savoie’s more cerebral perimeter game, but the problem comes when the opponents are all able to match his speed and are more capable of shutting him down defensively to prevent his tight quarters playmaking. Geekie’s skill with his hands is a bit clunky and simple, but it’s effective when paired with his size and strength at this stage in his career. It’s still undeniable that Geekie is more easily projected as an NHL player of some kind. He’s able to think under pressure, adapt, find lanes, keep pucks in the middle of the ice and play the game effectively even if his pace isn’t quite at the same level as Savoie tries to play with.
- A selection of Geekie sequences illustrating his stronger north/south power game, strength, tight quarters playmaking, but limitations in projecting his skill and speed to offensive NHL success.
So where are we? At present time, Geekie is more physically developed, calmer under pressure and uses his hands, feet and body in conjunction to find options and make plays, but his speed is limited, his skill in open ice is clunky, and my concern is that his offensive game could be limited to a supplementary role once the NHL hits. Savoie is a higher pace, skilled forward who brings flashes of great talent, but a lack of consistent dominance at 5v5 coming from a lack of high-end speed and skill is hard to deny. He’s too easily countered by opponents, but he doesn’t buckle under pressure and improvements in the gym combined with improvements to his ability to quickly generate speed, change directions would be a great benefit, with skill improvements in full flight to really push defenses back and challenge them in more dangerous areas of the ice. With Geekie, the upside may be more limited in my books, but he’ll be an NHL player with the right tools that NHL coaches should value. With Savoie, there’s tremendous potential, but I value 5v5 play immensely, and without improvements to what has already made him a strong offensive talent in junior hockey, his ability to consistently make an impact offensively in the NHL may be limited. While Geekie is growing on me as a player, the concerns about where he could be in five years remain, and while I was on the Savoie train since the beginning of the year, I’ve been waiting and waiting for Savoie to truly become the offensive dynamo I saw with Dubuque last season… at least at 5v5.