Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, rising young stars like Tim Stutzle, Tage Thompson, Matt Boldy, and Jesper Bratt are making their mark, plus goaltenders that are challenging for more playing time as the season heads into the second half.
#1 Second year Ottawa Senators center Tim Stutzle had some early struggles in terms of production, coming up with just eight points (1 G, 7 A) in the first 21 games, but even during that slump, he would show flashes of potential. Well, the production is starting to come now for Stutzle, who has moved to centre, and he has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 38 shots on goal in his past 15 games. With Drake Batherson and Josh Norris injured, the Sens will need Stutzle’s production even more.
#2 It is starting to look like the St. Louis Blues have something of a goaltending controversy on their hands, as Ville Husso has been playing so well that he is starting to take time away from Jordan Binnington. After Thursday’s win against Calgary, Husso has started four of the past five games for the Blues and his save percentage is up to .944 in 14 games this season. That is unsustainably high but when a goaltender is playing that well, he deserves the opportunity to play to find out just how sustainable his performance might be.
#3 While pleasant surprises can get lost on a losing team, there is fantasy value to be uncovered in some of those situations. Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson was a big part of the trade that sent Ryan O’Reilly to the Blues, but it has taken some time for the 6-foot-7 forward to make his mark in the NHL. In his past nine games, Thompson has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 29 shots on goal, giving him 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 39 games this season and he now looks like a core piece in the Sabres’ rebuild.
#4 The Pittsburgh Penguins signed 37-year-old Jeff Carter to a two-year contract extension, and he earned it. In his past 17 games, Carter has delivered 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 48 shots on goal. When Carter was winding up his time in Los Angeles, he scored on just 8.0% of his shots in his last two-plus seasons with the Kings, a span of 176 games. In 51 games since joining the Penguins, Carter has scored on 13.9% of his shots. When the percentages change to that degree, the whole perception of a player can shift, too.
#5 Although he can get overshadowed by the stars in Tampa Bay, Lightning center Anthony Cirelli is enjoying a strong bounce-back season after he faded badly in the second half of last season. Cirelli has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal in the past seven games, giving him 27 points (12 G, 15 A) in 39 games while logging career-high ice time of 19:36 per game.
#6 We covered Minnesota Wild rookie winger Matt Boldy when he was first called up from the AHL, but not enough fantasy managers have been paying attention because he is still widely available. The 20-year-old has produced six points (3 G, 3 A) with 18 shots on goal in seven games and has played more than 17 minutes in five of those games. The opportunity is there in Minnesota for Boldy to keep putting up points especially since he’s getting time on the Wild’s first power play unit.
#7 It has not been an easy season for Chicago Blackhawks center Dylan Strome, who has had spotty playing time, been a healthy scratch, and seems destined for a trade out of the Windy City, but Strome has been scoring more lately and that can’t hurt his marketability. After a hat trick at Detroit on Wednesday, Strome has nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 15 shots on goal in his past eight games.
#8 For deep league value, consider Nashville Predators winger Luke Kunin, who supplements his offense – 5 G, 1 A in the past 10 GP – with a decent shot rate (24 shots on goal in the past 10 games) and an elite hit rate (32 hits in those 10 games). It’s enough to give him fantasy appeal when his pure offensive production might not be enough to get there.
#9 Skating on Tim Stutzle’s wing has worked well for speedy Ottawa Senators winger Alex Formenton, who has gone from fourth liner to productive scorer in the blink of an eye. Formenton has 14 points (5 G, 9 A) and 35 shots on goal in the past 14 games, playing more than 15 minutes per game in the process.
#10 It is not yet to the point of a goaltending controversy in Colorado, but Avalanche netminder Pavel Francouz is playing well enough that he might force his way into a bigger role if Darcy Kuemper does not improve (or if the Avs trade for another goaltender). Francouz missed all of last season and the start of this season but in seven games played he does have a .932 save percentage, and he is coming off back-to-back shutouts. The Avalanche are enough of a powerhouse that whoever is getting the chance to play in net for them is going to provide fantasy value.
#11 If I told you that there are two New Jersey Devis forwards averaging a point per game this season, Jack Hughes would probably be an easy enough pick for one of the players, but how long would it be before you guess Jesper Bratt? The 23-year-old has put up 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in the past 10 games and has a career-high 39 points in 39 games.
#12 Los Angeles Kings winger Adrian Kempe has hit a career high with 18 goals in 41 games. He is scoring on a career high 14.8% of his shots but that is not an outrageous percentage and, importantly, Kempe is generating shots on goal. After putting up 2.27 shots on goal per game last season, Kempe is up to 2.98 shots on goal per game this season. He is skating on the Kings’ top line and getting first-unit power play time, so Kempe is in a good spot to maintain that level of production.
#13 Demoted to the American Hockey League earlier in the season, Ottawa Senators goaltender Matt Murray is showing some positive signs recently. Tread carefully, because Murray’s recent track record is not great, but he does have a .937 save percentage in his past five starts and fantasy managers that need goaltending at this stage of the season might need to consider him.
#14 After posting a career-low save percentage of .889 last season, Dallas Stars goaltender Braden Holtby is delivering a strong season in Dallas. Holtby has a .917 save percentage in 21 games this season, which would be his highest save percentage in a season since 2016-2017. As long as the Stars are in playoff contention, Holtby probably stays in a tandem with Jake Oettinger, but if the Stars lose ground, Holtby might draw some interest in the trade market.
#15 It has obviously been a terrible season for the Montreal Canadiens, but the Habs’ struggles do present an opportunity to grab undervalued assets. Veteran winger Tyler Toffoli started slowly this season and has landed on the waiver wire in many fantasy leagues as a result but is working his way out of it. In the past 13 games, Toffoli has contributed 13 points (4 G, 9 A) and 34 shots on goal.
#16 Although his point production ebbs and flows, Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard continues to offer fantasy value because of his ability to get the puck to the net. In the past nine games, Bouchard has just three points (2 G, 1 A) but he also has 24 shots on goal in that time and has played more than 23 minutes in six of those nine games.
#17 Second-year Chicago Blackhawks winger Brandon Hagel is playing his way into fantasy relevance. He has moved up the Chicago depth chart to play with Patrick Kane and Dylan Strome, and Hagel has scored six points (3 G, 3 A) in the past seven games, playing more than 18 minutes in each of those seven games.
#18 According to Natural Stat Trick, the forwards with the highest rate of individual expected goals in all situations this season (ixG/60, minimum 200 minutes) are: Matthew Tkachuk (1.59), Sebastian Aho (1.59), John Tavares (1.54), Andrei Svechnikov (1.50), Sam Bennett (1.45), Timo Meier (1.44), Connor McDavid (1.42), Max Pacioretty (1.42), Auston Matthews (1.42), and Chris Kreider (1.41).
#19 Defensemen with the highest rate of individual expected goals in all situations (ixG/60, minimum 200 minutes): Dougie Hamilton (0.61), Roman Josi (0.46), Aaron Ekblad (0.42), Cale Makar (0.42), Victor Hedman (0.42), Zach Werenski (0.42), Adam Boqvist (0.41), Shea Theodore (0.41), Darnell Nurse (0.41), and Damon Severson (0.41).
#20 As was rumored, the Edmonton Oilers signed left winger Evander Kane to a one-year contract. The Oilers are desperate to make the playoffs and could present a fantastic opportunity for Kane. Throughout his career, Kane has been an elite shot generator and has scored more than 25 goals in a season five times. If he ends up with an opportunity to play alongside Connor McDavid, that could lift Kane to new heights offensively. Kane has not played in the NHL this season but did have eight points (2 G, 6 A) in five AHL games.
Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.