Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Florida Panthers are a rising tide that lifts all ships, including Mason Marchment. Alex Tuch, Jared McCann, Valeri Nichushkin, Michael Bunting, and more players with increasing fantasy value.
#1 Florida Panthers left winger Mason Marchment exploded into the fantasy consciousness this week with a six-point game at Columbus, lifting him to 23 points (8 G, 15 A) in 22 games this season. For added value, Marchment also has 51 hits in those 22 games, and has a good thing going with rookie center Anton Lundell and right winger Sam Reinhart. While there is reason to be optimistic about Marchment as a legitimate contributor in fantasy, note that his on-ice shooting percentage of 14.7% is very high and not likely to sustain at that level. Given his physical contributions, though, Marchment still has fantasy appeal even if he isn’t likely to continue scoring at a point-per-game pace.
#2 Aside from Marchment, forwards that are likely to see some regression in their numbers based on inflated 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages: Ryan Hartman (14.4%), Kirill Kaprizov (13.7%), Mark Stone (13.6%), Mats Zuccarello (13.4%), Rem Pitlick (13.3%), Max Pacioretty (13.2%), Anton Lundell (13.1%), Nazem Kadri (13.0%), and Tom Wilson (12.9%). Keep your eyes on the top lines in Minnesota and Vegas because, as skilled as they are, it can be difficult to maintain such lofty percentages.
#3 On the other hand, some skilled forwards that could be looking at better results because, so far, they have had a low on-ice shooting percentage: Brock Boeser (4.4%), Kevin Hayes (4.8%), Filip Zadina (4.8%), James van Riemsdyk (5.1%), Kyle Palmieri (5.2%), Sean Monahan (5.3%), Nils Hoglander (5.4%), Mike Hoffman (5.4%), William Karlsson (5.5%), and Elias Pettersson (5.5%). Players with a low on-ice shooting percentage tend to make good trade targets because the perception of their value is diminished.
#4 Since the NHL schedule pause in December, the Florida Panthers have been a high-octane attack, averaging 4.88 goals/60 in all situations in 18 games played during that span. The team with the second-highest goal-scoring rate in that time is the Toronto Maple Leafs (4.35 G/60), more than a half-goal per 60 minutes behind the Panthers. The Minnesota Wild (4.27), Carolina Hurricanes (3.87), and Pittsburgh Penguins (3.81) round out the top five teams.
#5 A big piece of the trade that sent Jack Eichel to the Vegas Golden Knights, Alex Tuch has really responded to his increased role with the Buffalo Sabres. A native of Syracuse, New York, Tuch has produced 13 points (5 G, 8 A) along with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:46 time on ice in 13 games for the Sabres. He has combined with Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner to give the Sabres a legitimately dangerous top line.
#6 One of the best selections by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, Jared McCann has tied a career high with 19 goals in just 41 games. He is scoring on 18.1% of his shots, which is a tad high, but McCann could also play more than the 16:04 average time on ice per game he has been getting with Seattle.
#7 After signing a big free agent deal in Calgary in the summer, Blake Coleman struggled to produce offensively, but he was starting to round into form heading into the All-Star break, putting up nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 30 shots on goal in his last 10 games. From the time he arrived in the league, Coleman has increased his fantasy value with his hit totals and 89 hits in 41 games this season gives him some of that added appeal now that his scoring numbers have picked up.
#8 In the past couple of seasons, Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has established that he is an elite checking winger, with outstanding impact during 5-on-5 play, but he has not been a big scorer. That has changed somewhat this season. He has missed time, playing in just 28 games, but Nichushkin has 23 points (12 G, 11 A) and 75 shots on goal while playing a career high 18:14 per game. That shot rate is climbing, too – 52 in his past 16 games works out to 3.25 per game.
#9 The Toronto Maple Leafs have tried other combinations of forwards, but it turns out that their best option to skate on the left side with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line is Michael Bunting, the 26-year-old who is still a rookie. In his past 23 games, Bunting has chipped in 21 points (9 G, 12 A) and 20 of those points have at even strength. His ability to do things that his linemates can’t makes him a strong fit in that spot.
#10 When Toronto Maple Leafs winger Ilya Mikheyev asked for a trade in the offseason, the Maple Leafs declined to take him up on that request and had high hopes for him for the 2021-2022 season, but that was stalled when he suffered a broken thumb in the preseason. Mikheyev played one game in mid-December before the schedule pause but in the dozen games since, he has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 37 shots on goal. For a player who was a notoriously poor finisher in his previous two seasons, Mikheyev is starting to find the net and raising the price of his value on the upcoming free agent market.
#11 The Vegas Golden Knights just signed defenseman Brayden McNabb to a three-year contract extension and while McNabb is not a typical fantasy darling because he does not register a lot of points – he has finished with more than 16 points once in his career – McNabb does have some deep league appeal because he is a consistent source of hits and blocked shots. McNabb has averaged a combined 4.72 hits plus blocked shots per game this season, which ranks 10th among defensemen that have appeared in at least 20 games.
#12 The nine defensemen ahead of McNabb in combined hits plus blocked shots per game: Radko Gudas (5.89), Alexander Romanov (5.32), Luke Schenn (5.30), Rasmus Ristolainen (5.17), Jacob Trouba (5.11), Connor Murphy (4.93), Darnell Nurse (4.91), Mario Ferraro (4.90), and Erik Cernak (4.76).
#13 After scoring 65 points in 2017-2018, Arizona Coyotes winger Clayton Keller has stumbled along for the past three seasons, well behind that rate of production. It seems that he might have turned the corner this season, even as the Coyotes languish near the bottom of the league. In his past 29 games, Keller has 32 points (14 G, 18 A) and 90 shots on goal.
#14 Veteran Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner scored 30 goals during the 2015-2016 season but has not scored more than 18 goals in any other season. This season, Jenner is up to 18 goals after producing 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 35 shots on goal in the last 11 games before the All-Star break. He is not recording hits at the same level as he did earlier in his career, when he had four 200-hit seasons, but Jenner’s improved goal-scoring and shot rate still makes him a valuable contributor.
#15 The Los Angeles Kings have tried to focus on improving their team speed and it is starting to pay off. Winger Viktor Arvidsson, who they acquired from Nashville in the offseason, has really picked up his play in 2022. In his past 15 games, Arvidsson has delivered 15 points (7 G, 8 A) along with 59 shots on goal. Alex Iafallo is another speedy winger who has had an impact on the Kings’ improving playoff fortunes. Averaging a career-high 2.87 shots on goal per game, Iafallo has 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 45 games, which puts him well within striking distance of his career high of 17 goals, set in 2019-2020.
#16 As the New York Islanders are the only team in the league that has yet to play 40 games, they do offer more potential value for the rest of the NHL season. One player to consider for the Isles is center Brock Nelson, who has been heating up with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal in the past nine games. The five-time 20-goal scorer has 14 goals in 30 games this season.
#17 A left winger that looked like good value on the free agent market last summer (as compared to big-ticket signing Zach Hyman, for example), Brandon Saad has been quietly effective with the St. Louis Blues. Saad has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past eight games and is up to 25 points (15 G, 10 A) in 40 games.
#18 There have been lots of rumors about the Arizona Coyotes dealing defenseman Jakob Chychrun, who has not been terribly productive this season, managing 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in 34 games. This after finishing with a career high 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games last season. Presumably, the opportunity to play for a more competitive team would work in Chychrun’s favor but it is noteworthy that Shayne Gostisbehere has been putting up numbers for the Coyotes this season, accumulating 28 points (8 G, 20 A) in 45 games, which is tied for 16th among defensemen.
#19 Another defenseman who has term left on his contract but could be available on the trade market is Montreal Canadiens veteran Jeff Petry, who may have had the best season of his career in 2020-2021, producing 42 points (12 G, 30 A) in 55 games. This season has been an entirely different story for Petry, as he shockingly has just six points (1 G, 5 A) in 37 games. As a player that tends to contribute to peripheral fantasy hockey categories like hits and blocked shots, too, Petry had plenty of fantasy value when he was scoring but right now, not so much.
#20 The hunt for goaltending at this stage of the season does not offer a lot of options. I wrote last week about Ville Husso, Pavel Francouz, and Matt Murray, and their varying degrees of fantasy value, but also consider Los Angeles Kings goaltender Cal Petersen, who has not seized the starting job in the way that might have been expected, in part because Jonathan Quick played so well early in the season. However, Quick has slumped lately, posting a .873 save percentage in 10 games since the schedule pause, and Petersen is 6-1 with a .914 save percentage in his past seven appearances.
#21 While Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Petr Mrazek is not exactly pushing for the starting job, he will have an opportunity to play more as starter Jack Campbell has lost some measure of his early season excellence. Mrazek does have a .921 save percentage in four games since returning from the schedule pause while Campbell has a .891 save percentage in nine games since returning from the December schedule pause.