Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, a new shooter for the Toronto Maple Leafs, changes on the benches in Edmonton and Montreal, Patrik Laine finding his form, Damon Severson, Connor McDavid and more.
#1 Toronto Maple Leafs right winger Mitch Marner had his eight-game goal-scoring streak snapped in Calgary Thursday night, but it was not for a lack of trying as Marner recorded a season-high 10 shots on goal in Toronto’s 5-2 loss. Marner’s sudden desire to shoot the puck more frequently has paid off as he has 10 goals and 42 shots on goal in the past nine games. Before this nine-game stretch, Marner was averaging 2.42 shots on goal per game. In the past nine games, that average is up to 4.67 shots per game.
#2 The Edmonton Oilers fired head coach Dave Tippett and replaced him with Jay Woodcroft, who had been an assistant in Edmonton earlier in his career but had been the head coach for Bakersfield of the AHL since 2018-2019. With the coach coming from the American Hockey League, is there a chance that some younger Oilers might be given more of an opportunity to play significant roles in the team’s desperate push for a playoff spot? Goaltender Stuart Skinner, who has a .908 SV% in a dozen games for the Oilers, probably should get a chance but the Oilers might have to bite the bullet and look for an external solution to their goaltending issues because Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen have not fared well. Defenseman Evan Bouchard, wingers Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto, plus center Ryan McLeod are relatively young Oilers that played for Woodcroft in the AHL so it will be worth keeping an eye on how he chooses to deploy them with the Oilers.
#3 The Oilers were not the only team making a change behind the bench. The Montreal Canadiens fired head coach Dominique Ducharme, replacing him with Hall of Famer Martin St. Louis. With zero pro coaching experience, St. Louis does not have a history with any of the players on his new team, but there might be some inspiration for Cole Caufield, the 21-year-old rookie who has not come close to the lofty expectations that were placed on him coming into the season, but he is an undersized scoring winger, and few filled that role more effectively than St. Louis. Caufield had one goal in 30 games before scoring in St. Louis’ first game on the bench Thursday, a 5-2 loss to Washington.
#4 Veteran Canadiens winger Tyler Toffoli got off to a slow start this season, like many of his teammates but unlike many of his teammates, Toffoli has emerged from that slow start and is producing at a high level once again. He has missed some time with injuries, but Toffoli has 14 points (5 G, 9 A) and 37 shots on goal in his past 13 games. The question for a Canadiens team that is looking for a rebuild, is whether to keep Toffoli or move him to a contender, because he would surely draw interest.
#5 A few weeks ago, Calgary Flames head coach Darryl Sutter called out center Mikael Backlund for his lack of production and the veteran pivot responded with nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 38 shots on goal in the past eight games. Naturally, there is a lot of attention paid to Calgary’s top line, but Backlund has long been a difference maker with strong two-way play and secondary scoring.
#6 It has not been an easy season for Columbus Blue Jackets sniper Patrik Laine, who missed time due to injury and to deal with the death of his father, but he is heating up now. In his past nine games, Laine has produced 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 27 shots on goal. Given his outstanding release, it is of utmost importance for Laine to get enough opportunities to shoot the puck and he is up by nearly a full shot per game over last season.
#7 Blue collar Chicago Blackhawks winger Brandon Hagel is playing a bigger role in his second season and has put up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 22 shots on goal in his past 11 games. Hagel was a sixth-round pick of the Sabres in 2016 and showed well as a rookie for Chicago last season but, powered by a shooting percentage of 18.3%, he is not only playing a top-six role but is also getting time on the top power play unit, too.
#8 As the Vegas Golden Knights prepare for the impending debut of Jack Eichel, who appears to be nearly ready to return from his disc replacement surgery. The challenge for the Golden Knights is how to fit Eichel under the salary cap, and the solution may be that team captain Mark Stone could be headed for LTIR with a back injury. If Stone, who has 28 points (8 G, 20 A) in 28 games, is out of the lineup for an extended period, would the Golden Knights consider keeping Chandler Stephenson on the top line, even if he has to slide to the wing?
#9 New Jersey Devils defenseman Damon Severson has been sizzling, with 17 points (3 G, 14 A) and 32 shots on goal in his past 16 games. He might lose some power play time to Dougie Hamilton when Hamilton returns to= action, but Severson has been a major contributor for the Devils.
#10 Edmonton Oilers superstar center Connor McDavid is tied for third in league scoring with 61 points (23 G, 38 A) in 43 games, but he has reached those heights despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.3%, easily the lowest mark of his career. McDavid is averaging 3.77 shots on goal per game, a career high, and the Oilers are generating a higher rate of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals with McDavid on the ice this season compared to any of his previous seasons. Under other circumstances, that would seem like a player that could be a buy-low opportunity, but it might be tough to pry McDavid away from another fantasy manager.
#11 With Bruins left winger Brad Marchand suspended, more responsibility falls to Taylor Hall in Boston. Since January 1, Hall has contributed 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 45 shots on goal in 19 games and is skating with Erik Haula and David Pastrnak on what is suddenly the Bruins’ top line.
#12 Injuries have hindered the production of Ottawa Senators right winger Connor Brown, who has nine points (2 G 7 A) in his past eight games, but that eight-game sample runs all the way back to mid-December. However, an injury to Drake Batherson creates an even better opportunity for Brown to play a big role in the Senators offense.
#13 The Nashville Predators have been something of a surprise this season and one of the players that has had an integral role in those positive results has been Mikael Granlund, who is playing a career-high 20:53 per game and has produced 38 points (6 G, 32 A) in 45 games, his best per-game point production since 2017-2018 when he was with the Minnesota Wild.
#14 When mining the waiver wire, sometimes value can be found near the bottom of the standings. Arizona Coyotes forward Nick Schmaltz, who has been skating more on the wing this season, scored a pair of goals at Seattle Tuesday, giving him 11 points (6 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.
#15 The Vegas Golden Knights have done a fine job resurrecting the careers of some players and it looks like they might be on to something with Brett Howden, who was much maligned by the time he was done with the New York Rangers. The 23-year-old still plays a fourth-line role for Vegas, for the most part, but has contributed seven points (4 G, 3 A) in the past six games and that kind of production can help a player earn more opportunities.
#16 San Jose Sharks winger Rudolfs Balcers has flashed his offensive skill from time to time and while he has missed some games with injuries this season, he also has five points (4 G, 1 A) and 12 shots on goal in his past five games. In deep leagues, he is worth considering.
#17 A defenseman who does not score much can still offer fantasy value, depending on league categories. A case in point is Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Calvin de Haan, who has just four points (1 G, 3 A) in 43 games this season, but he is an ace shot blocker. In his past 13 games, de Haan has blocked 58 shots, so if you need category-specific help, de Haan might fill that need.
#18 I have written before about how St. Louis Blues goaltender Ville Husso is pushing for more time in the Blues crease, because he has a .941 save percentage in 15 games this season, but the bigger reason for Husso to take a bigger role for the Blues is that Jordan Binnington is falling apart. Binnington has a .862 save percentage in six starts since January 1, allowing 18 goals against in his past three starts.
#19 With Boston Bruins netminder Tuukka Rask choosing to retire rather than continue his attempt to come back from hip surgery, Jeremy Swayman returns to the Bruins lineup and the rookie might be able to earn a bigger role down the stretch if he plays well. Swayman has a .914 save percentage with Boston this season and forms a reasonably effective tandem with Linus Ullmark.
#20 Since NHL teams returned from the December schedule pause, the leading scorer on a points-per-game basis (minimum 10 games played) has been Pittsburgh Penguins right winger Bryan Rust, who has 26 points (14 G, 12 A) and 54 shots on goal in 14 games, good for 1.86 points per game. Coming in next behind Rust are Mitch Marner, Jonathan Huberdeau, Johnny Gaudreau, and Matthew Tkachuk.
Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.