20 FANTASY POINTS
Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Ryan Getzlaf is calling it a career plus early returns from the trade deadline, as Andrew Copp, Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux, and Frank Vatrano are among the players making a difference with their new teams.
#1 Anaheim Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf has announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season. The 36-year-old has been a massively productive player. On his way to 1,013 career points, Getzlaf had nine seasons with at least 60 points, peaking at 91 points in 2008-2009. Additionally, Getzlaf had a dozen seasons in which he recorded more than 90 hits, so he could contribute more than merely points.
#2 When it comes to the players that moved at the trade deadline, the New York Rangers have to be very happy with their acquisition of Andrew Copp from the Winnipeg Jets. Copp has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 23 shots on goal in nine games and adds stability to a line with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Copp was going to be a sought-after free agent in the summer anyway, but this strong finish with the Rangers is only going to drive his price even higher.
#3 When the Tampa Bay Lightning made a trade to acquire Nick Paul from the Ottawa Senators, they sent right winger Mathieu Joseph to Canada’s capital. Normally a checking winger, Joseph has found himself skating on the Sens’ top line, alongside Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris. In the past four games, Joseph has erupted for 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 13 shots on goal, suddenly becoming a scoring threat.
#4 For his part, Nick Paul has been a quality contributor for the Lightning, too. His ice time is way down, from 17:22 per game in Ottawa to 12:37 per game for Tampa Bay, and yet Paul has six points (2 G, 4 A), 18 shots on goal, and 23 hits in nine games. He is skating on a line with Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn, a unit that has more of an offensive role than what might have been expected when Paul was first acquired.
#5 The biggest acquisition, at least as a scoring forward, at the deadline was the Florida Panthers getting Claude Giroux from the Philadelphia Flyers. It is no surprise that Giroux has been able to produce points upon joining the league’s highest scoring team and he does have nine points (1 G, 8 A) in eight games with the Panthers, but it is notable that he has 25 shots on goal in just eight games but has managed just one goal, scoring on just 4.0% of his shots. He is now on the right wing with Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Bennett, a pairing that has been highly productive since the Panthers added Bennett last season.
#6 Even though the Vegas Golden Knights attempted to unload Evgeny Dadonov at the trade deadline, once the deal was quashed, Dadonov returned to Vegas and has become a vital part of the Golden Knights’ playoff push. Dadonov has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in six games since “returning” to Vegas and has settled on the top line with Jack Eichel and Chandler Stephenson. Still available in many fantasy leagues, Stephenson has contributed nine points (2 G, 7 A) in six games since the deadline.
#7 Acquired by the New York Rangers from the Florida Panthers, where he could not get consistent playing time, Frank Vatrano has responded well to his bigger role. He is averaging 15:36 per game with the Blueshirts, after getting 12:12 of ice time per game with the Panthers, and Vatrano has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 29 shots on goal in 12 games. Vatrano has always been able to get shots but has not always received the opportunity to make the most of that skill. Since 2018-2019, Vatrano is averaging 10.41 shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5v5 play, which ranks 24th in the league among players to have skated at least 1000 5v5 minutes, just ahead of Jack Eichel and behind Kirill Kaprizov and Justin Williams.
#8 Getting a chance to play on a playoff team has helped defenseman Nick Leddy, who has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games since joining the St. Louis Blues. He has been getting a chance to quarterback the first power play unit so there is a decent chance of Leddy providing enough offense to matter for fantasy managers down the stretch.
#9 Rickard Rakell has been a solid addition to the Pittsburgh Penguins, often skating on Evgeni Malkin’s wing, but there has not been a big spike in his production compared to the start of the season in Anaheim. Rakell has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in nine games but after playing 18:21 per game for the Ducks, he has averaged 16:16 per game for the Penguins.
#10 Part of the package going to Philadelphia in the Claude Giroux deal, Owen Tippett is getting a better opportunity to play with the Flyers, but the results have not hit yet. In 10 games with Philadelphia, Tippett has three points (2 G, 1 A), but he does have 24 shots on goal. It is probably too soon to be optimistic about Tippett’s chances to be productive this season but his finish to the 2021-2022 season should give a decent indication about whether Tippett can fulfill his potential as a scoring winger.
#11 Veteran defenseman Michael Del Zotto was banished to the American Hockey League, but he went to Belleville and put up 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 26 games. After the trade deadline, with the Senators needing more bodies on the NHL blueline, Del Zotto was recalled and he has four assists and 14 shots on goal in eight games, playing more than 18 minutes per game for Ottawa.
#12 The Florida Panthers paid a steep price to land defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens, but Chiarot has contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) and 25 shots on goal in eight games since joining the Panthers. The points are nice, but the shot rate stands out, as Chiarot was averaging 1.78 shots on goal per game with Montreal and that is up to 3.13 per game in Florida, even though his ice time has dropped by more than two minutes per game. Such is the value of joining the league’s highest-octane attack.
#13 Although he was hurt in Boston’s last game, defenseman Hampus Lindholm has had a positive impact since joining the Bruins. He has four assists, 11 hits, 12 blocked shots, and 16 shots on goal since arriving in Boston and steadying the top pairing alongside Charlie McAvoy. Lindholm does not typically put up big offensive numbers, which tends to limit his fantasy appeal, but if he could continue to chip in offensively while averaging more than 1.5 hits and blocked shots per game, as well as two-plus shots per game, then Lindholm would still hold fantasy appeal.
#14 While three points (1 G, 2 A) in eight games for the Toronto Maple Leafs is relatively consistent with his Seattle Kraken production, defenseman Mark Giordano has managed just seven shots on goal in those eight games, which is a notable decrease, and he is playing 19:15 per game for the Maple Leafs. 2008-2009 was the last season in which Giordano averaged fewer than 20 minutes of ice time per game.
#15 Max Domi was a scoring forward of dubious fantasy value with Columbus this season, scoring 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 55 games, but that is better than what he has been able to provide in Carolina, managing zero goals and three assists with seven shots on goal in eight games for the Hurricanes. He wasn’t playing a lot for Columbus, averaging 13:25 of ice time per game, but he is down almost two minutes per game from that mark in Carolina.
#16 The points have not been there yet for defenseman Jake Walman, who has two assists in nine games since he was acquired by the Detroit Red Wings as part of the Nick Leddy deal. What is interesting about Walman is that, after playing less than 12 minutes per game for the Blues this season, he is getting nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game for Detroit and has put 22 shots on goal in nine games with the Red Wings.
#17 One of the priciest acquisitions prior to the trade deadline, left winger Brandon Hagel had been riding a high shooting percentage on his way to scoring 21 goals in 55 games for the Blackhawks before he was added by the Tampa Bay Lightning. The high shooting percentage remains, as Hagel has two goals on 10 shots for the Lightning, but those are his only points in Tampa Bay and his ice time has gone from 17:28 per game in Chicago to 12:24 per game in Tampa Bay.
#18 One of the benefits of being a rebuilding team like the Montreal Canadiens is that the team can offer a more substantial role to a prospect that might have the same opportunity with their previous club. Defenseman Justin Barron got into a couple of games with the Colorado Avalanche earlier in the season, averaging 12:35 of ice time per game. In five games since joining the Canadiens, Barron is playing more than 19 minutes per game, and he has two points (1 G, 1 A) along with 13 shots on goal. Montreal’s defense is going to be changing and the 2020 first-round pick is likely to be a big part of it.
#19 Going the other way in that trade, winger Artturi Lehkonen only has one goal in four games for the Avalanche but there are encouraging signs, too. For one thing, Lehkonen has seen his ice time go up by nearly two minutes per game, which is not typical for a player going from a bottom feeder to a Stanley Cup contender, and Lehkonen does have 13 shots on goal in those four games. He may not be a huge scorer but there is a good chance that Lehkonen will contribute for the Avs for the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs.
#20 The Seattle Kraken don’t score a lot so there is limited fantasy upside to most of their players, but it is notable that Ryan Donato has been playing a first line role for them. Since the deadline, Donato has six points (1 G, 5 A) in eight games and is getting an extra minute per game of ice time.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.