Matthew Savoie - C/RW - Winnipeg Ice #93 - Avg. Rnk - 5.74
65GP - 35G+55A - 11.55% G% 29.70% INV% - 24.61 NHLeS
Matthew Savoie has been on scouting radars for about five years after a tremendous pre-WHL career, playing over 20 games in the WHL at the age of 15, and putting up over a point per game in the USHL during the pandemic only helped fan the flames before Savoie finally joined the Winnipeg Ice full-time this season. Finishing 7th in WHL scoring with 90 points on a team that finished at the top of the table is another accolade to add to Savoie’s already impressive resume, and he’s been hotly discussed going into the 2022 NHL Draft. But, in my view, he’s hotly discussed in a few different ways. Yes, the production and resume are impressive, but there are those in hockey circles, myself included, that carry some concerns about Savoie’s style of play, and what may be achievable in the NHL, and my tracked data backs this up in a few ways.
If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.
Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video. Powered by Instat.com
Savoie’s possession data is rock solid, with a 67.3% DSAT%, which is expected considering Winnipeg’s dominance this year, and he finished with an OffThreat of 26.7, putting him 16th in my dataset, driven by the 13th highest rate of dangerous pass attempts. 22.3% of Savoie’s pass attempts were directed to or through the slot, which puts him 12th. Beyond that, Savoie’s rate of dangerous shots against put him 17th, and in terms of shot assists and individual shots, he was 20th in shot attempt creation for his team, but that’s literally the last datapoint of any kind that puts him in the top 20 among tracked forwards. Dangerous shooting? With 5.6 high danger and 9.1 total dangerous shot attempts per 60, Savoie sits further back towards 30th in both categories. Shot assists? Just shy of 12 per 60 minutes, good for 21st.
His transition data is also legitimately concerning in my sample. While a 69% and 43% offensive and defensive controlled zone transition percentage respectively is acceptable, Savoie was 59th of 80 forwards in total offensive transitions, 67th in offensive transition involvement under 25%, and just 50th in the percentage of offensive transitions that were completed through carrying, which considering his talent profile may surprise you, but the video may show why this might have been an area of struggle for Savoie. In fact, there are nine defenders I’ve tracked a half hour or more of that have involved themselves in 25% or more of their team’s offensive transitions, most notable of whom is Simon Nemec. What fascinated me with Savoie’s data was that he was significantly more involved in defensive transitions than many tracked forwards, sitting at 23rd with a DZTINV% of 12.2%, and while his DCZT% wasn’t particularly excellent, it’s an indicator that Savoie is not a player who isn’t backchecking or at least trying to pester puck carriers, which to me is somewhat more preferable to the opposite, especially for potential play-driving C’s.
So, the data indicates a strong offensive contributor, especially through playmaking to the middle of the ice, but that’s… basically it in terms of high end output at 5v5, but Savoie still remains in my top-10 so let’s get to the video to dig into what’s going on here. Two things with Matthew Savoie stick out to me immediately when reviewing my video of him. The first is the quickness with his hands and feet to change angles and routes of attack in offensive rushes, and the second is a highly underrated ability to fend off pressure and use his body and hands to keep pucks away from defenders and extend his possession to look for ways to defuse that pressure. If he gets a jump on a loose puck race, his first few steps can be more than enough to win those races and push play up the ice. I absolutely believe the high-end playmaking data I saw from Savoie as well, as he used pace and momentum to drive deep into the offensive zone and make threatening passes after drawing away pressure multiple times. Savoie just seems to have great spatial awareness of where linemates are and can make small, simple one-touch passes that change angles on goaltenders and led to good offensive output. There was often little hesitation on where to send passes, even in full stride chasing down loose pucks on offensive rushes, again indicating his strong playmaking awareness around the offensive zone.
In my sample, it should also be noted that Savoie’s data quickly changed from being far more pass-focused in the first few games tracked to being far more dangerous shot focused in the last four, with iDSAT/60 rates jumping from 1.62 to 14.8, and his DPass/60 rates falling a bit from 19.5 to 16.1 over the same subsample, but had just two dangerous pass attempts across games 6 and 7. But honestly, this was a welcome shift, as Savoie brought that skill with his hands, using wide feet to control the puck through traffic and push into more dangerous areas. So, in a sense, he went from relying on playmaking, to a weird, inconsistent mixture of dual-threat offense, but at his best, he showed great patience showing as a potential shooting threat, only to send threatening passes into the slot near the goal line. Savoie displayed a quick release off the rush, but also used his agility to constantly hunt for open space and look for chances tight around the net, resulting in quite a few near misses. He just showed such a strong feel for quickly brushing aside pressure and making quick passes to linemates that drove plenty of offense consistently.
As alluded to in the data, Savoie used his first few steps of quickness and strong edges to track down defensive rushes and at least involve himself and force opponents into making plays in tough situations, and with those edges, Savoie could create speed and quarterback rushes going back the other way. He may be small, but if he keeps his feet moving, he can be tenacious and aggressive, pushing rushes wide and trying to shut play down, and as he gets older and stronger, these traits should be improved further. Savoie also showed that quick thinking to lift sticks winning races and pressure opponents defensively, giving linemates valuable time and space to fetch pucks and get play moving.
But this is where the issues start to show up. Savoie is undersized and while he gets involved often, the inconsistency of his ability to create turnovers was apparent in a few scenarios. For all the agility and stick skill he’s displayed, I caught him too stationary and inactive, and with his lack of reach and strength, it removed him from being a factor, leading to that somewhat high DCZT%. If he can nail down using that quickness a bit more often defensively to close gaps and hits on more of those stick checks, signs are bright, because once the puck starts coming the other way, Savoie can make those simple passes to start breakouts, and that agility to find open space and drive play up the ice, it just… didn’t happen as much as you’d think for such a high flying elite producer at 5v5.
So, the question quickly becomes why is such an offensively productive player getting labeled with concerns when he’s skilled, agile, resilient, and clearly more defensively involved than you’d think? In my view, it’s about two things. Projecting that resilience against tougher competition, and more concerningly, Savoie struggled to generate true separation speed, and thereby consistent results driving offensive transitions. Savoie also seemed to focus a little too much on quick thinking, jumping to pass options with plenty of space to begin an offensive rush in some way. Being able to recognize when he can be patient, make reads and analyze multiple options will be key to develop in order to maximize his impact at 5v5 and this issue was a big driver of why his pass percentage barely crossed 50% in my sample. I would like to see Savoie get low to the ice more often and drive with speed around forecheckers, as he could resort to a complex slip pass that turns the puck over in a spot ripe for a defensive entry.
Savoie is just marked by high talent, tons of potential, but has really left me wanting to see more than what I was getting. He’s got agility and great skill, but the lack of ability to generate speed and really push defenses back seemed to limit his ability to really push into dangerous space with the puck.
The Best Part - Dual-Threat Offense
Savoie’s data took a weird turn over the course of the year in my sample, but I see it as a good thing that at times, Savoie can lean more into playmaking, while at others, he can work his way into the middle of the ice or float off-puck into that space and generate chances. The data was pretty clear. Savoie is a reasonably active defensive player, but primarily at is most active in the offensive zone finishing plays with both playmaking and shooting, especially working below the goal line. I’d love to see Savoie build on the skill and pressure navigation ability he has to be able to make plays like this a little more threatening, but he’s clearly on the right track and drove great results in the offensive zone. He scored a ton this year, and while lots of it came on the power play, it clearly indicated his ability to use his talent profile to take advantages and put those points on the board.
The Good Part - Resilience + Defensive Work Rate
It’s hard to fault Savoie for his attempts to chip in defensively, using smooth footwork to cut off rushes at times, and is something I’d want to see more of. This is also not a player who backs down when there’s pressure on him, often being able to chip pucks to linemates, and if the escape speed never develops to where it needs to be, Savoie shows signs of being a tugboat on skates, and being able to be aware of linemates who can help bail him out of his pressure situation will be imperative. Under pressure he doesn’t give up, keeps pressuring his forecheckers, and earned a few extra transitions and pass completions through this area of the game. The more plays like this that I see defensively on breakouts, the better off Savoie will be, and it’s certainly something I didn’t quite expect going into my tracking experience.
The Not-So Good Part - Puck Management + Separation Speed
It’s really hard to articulate how Savoie’s separation speed on the rush may be an issue, but I can’t help but think it’s limited his 5v5 production this year.He’s an undersized player with agility and skill, but was inactive in offensive transitions on paper, and a lot can be probably traced back to being easy to remove as an option due to that lack of high end speed generation, and similar to previously profiled players, a bit of “good but is it good enough” with regards to his good traits. Or this clip, Savoie has a clear breakout option in Connor McClennon streaking up the middle but instead of making a read or trying to run the rush himself with the space he’s in, it’s dumped for an easy retrieval. You can tell he’s really got his head in the right train of thought, but it just wasn’t consistent enough to be as threatening as other elite NHL prospects as Savoie is reputed to be.
Final Thoughts
So, Matthew Savoie is a really, really hard player to analyze. I get the feeling that with the agility, resilience, skill, and offensive zone vision, he could at least produce at a reasonable rate, and with his underrated defensive intensity, he may be able to put up some decent possession results, but the big question will be just how impactful can he be against bigger and stronger competition without adding a level of deception and speed generation in transition, and how much his ability to make calmer, more patient reads of the ice in transition and executing on them better than he did. To be perfectly honest, I only pulled 49 clips of Savoie across his seven tracked games, and usually high-end players with somewhat similar ice times pull closer to 70 or 80 to play with, good or bad, and that too is a different kind of indicator of Savoie’s inconsistency and the urge to want more out of him.
Through it all, Savoie was still close to an OffThreat of 30, and showed good defensive involvement, so the argument of “if he fixes his issues, what’s good will become elite” as outlined with Gleb Trikozov still holds. I just want to see more out of Savoie with the traits he already has in the toolbox, because seeing him wasting the space he’s in with low percentage plays and seeing him struggle to really be a principal conduit for offense in transition was hard to make sense of. But the mind for offense and talent are undeniable. Savoie loves to make plays from greasy areas of the offensive zone as well as off the rush, and the potential is sky-high as an offensive contributor. His one-touch passing in the offensive zone is hard to ignore and drove lots of that offensive threat level, which he’ll absolutely need in the NHL.
Where is he going to be drafted? Your guess is as good as mine, but I get the feeling NHL scouts see similar issues to what I and others have seen. There’s a ton of potential, but the bar for players like Savoie to find elite NHL success is extremely high, and it may take some time to get to that level, especially at 5v5. Can he get there? Absolutely. At times, he’s one of the most exciting players available this year, and it’ll be very interesting to see where he ends up in the NHL in the future.
(PassPass)