20 FANTASY POINTS
Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, slow starters that are rounding back into form, including Ryan O’Reilly, Logan Couture, and Tomas Tatar, plus rookies stepping into the spotlight – Jake Sanderson, Jusso Parssinen, Jonatan Berggren and more!
#1 St. Louis Blues center Ryan O’Reilly is going to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, so if the Blues are not in the playoff picture, he could be a prime trade candidate. After a miserable start to the season, during which he scored one goal and zero assists through 10 games, O’Reilly started to find his game again. Skating on a line with Brandon Saad and Josh Leivo, O’Reilly has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 13 shots on goal in the past six games. While I don’t normally tout a player of O’Reilly’s caliber, his slow start suddenly made him available in plenty of leagues, so he now offers value on the fantasy waiver wire.
#2 After managing 35 points (17 G, 18 A) in 79 games over the past two seasons, Pittsburgh Penguins left winger Jason Zucker came into this season healthy and ready to regain a scoring role. The 30-year-old winger has put up 14 points (4 G, 10 A) and 39 shots on goal in 15 games, earning a role alongside Evgeni Malkin on Pittsburgh’s second line. A five-time 20-goal scorer, a healthy Zucker offers secondary scoring that the Penguins need if they are going to be a playoff team.
#3 San Jose Sharks captain Logan Couture started slowly this season, with four points (2 G, 2 A) and 12 shots on goal in nine games, but he has picked up his production since then. In the past 10 games, Couture has contributed 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 25 shots on goal. He now has Alexander Barabanov and Matt Nieto skating on his wings, which might limit Couture’s offensive potential, but he is also getting first unit power play time for the Sharks.
#4 An injury to Thomas Chabot has accelerated the development path for Ottawa Senators rookie defenseman Jake Sanderson. The fifth pick in the 2020 Draft, Sanderson has eight assists and 23 shots on goal in the past 12 games. In two games since Chabot was injured, Sanderson is averaging more than 25 minutes of ice time per game and has moved to Ottawa’s top power play unit.
#5 A seventh-round pick of the Nashville Predators in 2019, Juuso Parssinen has developed quickly. In the past two seasons, Parssinen produced 74 points (17 G, 57 A) in 96 regular season games, adding 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 31 playoff games for TPS in Finland. He appeared in the AHL playoffs last season and started this season with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 10 games for the Milwaukee Admirals to earn his promotion to the NHL. Parssinen is not interested in returning to the AHL, it seems, as the 21-year-old center has three goals and one assist in his first three NHL games. He is not getting eased into the NHL, either, skating on Nashville’s top line, with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund on the wings, as well as landing a spot on the Predators’ top power play unit.
#6 Drafted early in the second round of the 2018 Draft by the Detroit Red Wings, Jonatan Berggren had been steadily progressing towards the NHL. He put up 45 points (12 G, 33 A) in 49 games for Skelleftea in Sweden during the 2020-2021 season and had 64 points (21 G, 43 A) as an AHL rookie last season. After starting this season with seven points (4 G, 3 A) in seven games, Berggren earned his call to the National Hockey League, and he has contributed three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first four games. Berggren does not have a huge role with the Wings, yet, but he has recently moved up the depth chart to skate with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, potentially a good opportunity for a rookie winger to put up some points.
#7 With Patrik Laine out of the Columbus Blue Jackets lineup due to a sprained ankle, Emil Bemstrom has stepped into Laine’s role on the first line and top power play unit. A fourth-round pick in 2017, Bemstrom had 19 goals and 17 assists in 136 career NHL games prior to this season. He has been renowned for his shot but does not have the all-around game to earn him a consistent place in the lineup. When injuries hit the Blue Jackets, though, Bemstrom’s 14 points (7 G, 7 A) in 10 AHL games had him ready for a call-up and, at least in the short term, he is in a position to score. He is apparently dealing with an injury, that left him questionable for Thursday’s win against Montreal, but opportunity is knocking for Bemstrom if he can stay in the lineup.
#8 Both Nikolaj Ehlers and Mason Appleton are injured for the Winnipeg Jets, so veteran Sam Gagner has moved up the depth chart to join Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the top line. Gagner has mostly been playing a depth role but has a couple of assists while averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game in the past two contests.
#9 Moving to Seattle in the expansion draft, defenseman Vince Dunn has taken on a bigger role in his second season with the Kraken. He is playing more than 23 minutes per game and has picked up his offensive pace with eight points (2 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal in the past 11 games. Dunn tied a career high with 35 points last season, but he is capable of scoring more and with the Kraken improving as a team, there ought to be more chances for Dunn to boost his point totals.
#10 New Jersey Devils winger Tomas Tatar opened the season with zero points in five games. He has put up 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 25 shots on goal in 12 games since. With Ondrej Palat injured, Tatar has more security in New Jersey’s top six and, right now, has a good thing going alongside Nico Hischier and rookie Fabian Zetterlund.
#11 Calgary Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin busted out last season, scoring a career high 48 points (10 G, 38 A). He followed that up by not recording a point through his first eight games this season, but that has turned around. Not only does Hanifin have five points (1 G, 4 A) in the past seven games, but he has put 24 shots on goal and defensemen that can put more than three shots on goal per game are rare commodities. Hanifin is one of 13 defensemen averaging at least three shots on goal per game this season.
#12 Buffalo Sabres goaltender Eric Comrie is set to miss multiple weeks with a lower-body injury, prompting the Sabres to recall 23-year-old goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen from Rochester of the American Hockey League. Luukkonen has a .895 save percentage in 69 career AHL games, which does not exactly jump off the page, but he also has a .913 save percentage in 13 NHL appearances. With Comrie out, the Sabres can split time between veteran Craig Anderson and Luukkonen, a decent audition to see how close he is to being ready for the NHL. Comrie had a .887 save percentage in 11 games for the Sabres, not an ideal beginning to his opportunity to be a starting goaltender.
#13 Minnesota Wild netminder Marc-Andre Fleury on the injured list due to an upper-body injury, backup Filip Gustavsson is looking at more consistent playing time for the Wild. The 24-year-old Gustavsson, who was acquired in a trade for Cam Talbot before the start of the season, has a .901 save percentage in six games this season, .904 in 33 career NHL games.
#14 The Philadelphia Flyers are dealing with a number of injuries up front and that has helped create an opportunity for 23-year-old right winger Owen Tippett to play a prominent role. Tippett is not afraid to put pucks on net and in his past six games, he has produced five points (2 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal, while averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game. A highly touted scorer coming out of junior, it never really clicked for Tippett in Florida, but the rebuilding Flyers can offer a better situation for his development and Tippett is making the most of it.
#15 Adam Ruzicka did not play in October, a healthy scratch for the Calgary Flames, and then played just 5:33 in his first game of the season. An injury to Jonathan Huberdeau opened up an opportunity for Ruzicka to play and he has made the most of it, taking the left-wing spot on the top line for the Flames. In the past five games, Ruzicka has chipped in five points (2 G, 3 A) and nine shots on goal. He is always at risk of falling out of the lineup but keep an eye on him. If he continues to produce, Ruzicka might just force his way into being a regular in the Flames lineup.
#16 Injuries have decimated the blueline for the Columbus Blue Jackets and that prompted the team to promote 24-year-old Marcus Bjork. A 6-foot-3 right shot defenseman Bjork had five points (2 G, 3 A) in 11 AHL games when he got the call. He has two points (1 G, 1 A) and five shots on goal in his first three NHL games, and he is now quarterbacking Columbus’ top power play unit.
#17 One of the stats to track when trying to predict future goal-scoring rates is how many shot attempts a player is getting. The forward leaders in five-on-five shot attempts per 60 minutes, minimum 100 minutes, are Tage Thompson (24.7), Timo Meier (23.9), David Pastrnak (23.2), Auston Matthews (21.5), and the recently injured Evander Kane (20.8). Just outside the Top 5? Denis Malgin (20.8) and Nazem Kadri (20.8). There might have been some sentiment coming into the season that Thompson was going to be a flop after his breakout season in 2021-2022, but if he is generating this many shots, the goals are going to follow. Thompson has 11 goals and 53 shots on goal in the past 10 games.
#18 When it comes to defensemen, the leaders in five-on-five shot attempts per 60 minutes are Brent Burns (21.1), Michael Stone (20.8), John Carlson (19.9), Dougie Hamilton (19.7), and Roman Josi (17.5). Stone is known for his heavy shot from the point, but he does not have quite the same offensive pedigree as the other leaders in this category.
#19 As for the defensemen that are shooting most on the power play, here are the defense leaders in shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, minimum of 20 minutes at five-on-four: Aaron Ekblad (38.5), Miro Heiskanen (35.8), Noah Dobson (34.7), Jacob Trouba (32.0), and John Klingberg (31.9).
The defensemen that are most reluctant to shoot on the power play, or just not getting the opportunities, minimum 20 minutes of five-on-four play: Chris Wideman (7.0), Juuso Valimaki (7.5), Rasmus Sandin (8.0), Owen Power (8.3), and Mikhail Sergachev (8.4).
#20 The players that have exceeded expected goals by the widest margin early in the season (and are likely due to run into some goal-scoring regression): Erik Karlsson (+8.05), Nick Suzuki (+7.39), Connor McDavid (7.33), Bo Horvat (6.26), Mark Scheifele (5.64), and J.T. Miller (5.61).
On other end of the spectrum, these are the players with the largest deficit of goals relative to expected goals (and are probably due for more pucks to go in the net): Mathew Barzal (-5.49), Matthew Tkachuk (-5.26), Erik Haula (-4.81), Oliver Bjorkstrand (-4.41), Sam Reinhart (-3.73), and Stefan Noesen (-3.72).
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.
