Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, Dylan Cozens is making a leap and it is getting overshadowed by one of his teammates. Seth Jarvis, Anthony Cirelli, Taylor Hall, and many more are offering potential value for fantasy hockey managers.
#1 The spotlight in Buffalo is shining on center Tage Thompson, and deservedly so after his five-goal game in Columbus, but I’m not here to recommend Tage Thompson. He should be rostered in every league already. But, sticking in Buffalo, center Dylan Cozens is getting overshadowed by Thompson’s monster season. Cozens is a 21-year-old who was the seventh pick in the 2019 Draft. He made nice progress through his first two NHL seasons but has broken through this year. Cozens has a five-game point streak and has produced three points in each of the past three games. Now he is up to 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 26 games which is more than okay from a second line center.
#2 When he finished last season on the top line for the Carolina Hurricanes, Seth Jarvis looked like he was well on his way to being a first line scoring winger. He struggled, scoring just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 20 games, and that landed him on the fantasy waiver wire, but he is starting to round back into form. Jarvis has six points (2 G, 4 A) during a six-game point streak and is back on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas.
#3 Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli missed the first couple of months while he recovered from shoulder surgery. He has returned to the lineup now and has three assists and 12 shots on goal in his first three games. Though he is known for his high-quality defensive play, Cirelli is skating on the right side of a line with Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point, a good opportunity to put up points. Cirelli has surpassed 40 points twice in his career and even though he has missed 23 games this season, he could still have a shot to hit that threshold.
#4 Known as more a playmaker than a finisher, Boston Bruins left winger Taylor Hall has nevertheless become a goal scorer recently, in part because he is taking more shots. Hall has five goals and 21 shots on goal in the past five games and is now up to 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 25 games for a Bruins team that is winning almost every night.
#5 Although his shot rate has dropped from 3.44 per game last season to 2.33 shots per game this season, Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson is heating up. In his past 12 games, Arvidsson has a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) and continues to thrive on a line with Trevor Moore and Phillip Danault. That trio has combined for 55.7% of expected goals during five-on-five play.
#6 Erik Haula has somehow managed to score just one goal on 57 shots for the New Jersey Devils this season, but he does have five assists in the past six games. When he has played with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, that line has controlled an astonishing 72.7% of expected goals during five-on-five play. That is the highest rate for any line that has played more than 100 five-on-five minutes together. The leaders in even-strength expected goals for per 60 minutes (minimum 200 even-strength minutes) are Matthew Tkachuk (4.61), Brady Tkachuk (4.56), Patrice Bergeron (4.38), Claude Giroux (4.36), and then a couple of Devils – Tomas Tatar (4.35) and Erik Haula (4.18).
#7 While the top Devils skaters – Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton – are obviously rostered in fantasy leagues there is still potential value from the supporting cast, too. Second year right winger Dawson Mercer, for example, has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in the past eight games and takes a regular turn on New Jersey’s first power play unit.
#8 There are precious few positive things going on in Philadelphia this season, but Kevin Hayes has been productive, even as the Flyers are losing on a regular basis. In the past 14 games, the Flyers have won just two games, even as Hayes has put up 16 points (7 G, 9 A) and 48 shots on goal. His production gets a boost when Travis Konecny is healthy as 13 of Hayes’ 28 points this season have come on goals involving Konecny. Hayes has never scored more than 55 points in a season but is on track to surpass that total this season.
#9 While we are searching for value on losing teams, Chicago Blackhawks center Max Domi has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 35 shots on goal in the past 13 games. Chicago has only won two of those games, but that has not prevented Domi from making the most of the opportunity he is getting. Part of that opportunity is playing a career-high 18:35 per game and he has won 57% of his faceoffs. It would be the first season of Domi’s career in which he won more than half of his draws.
#10 Since returning from a lower-body injury, Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie has continued to battle. In eight games, the 35-year-old has six points (3 G, 3 A), 23 shots on goal, and 25 hits, for good measure. On a Capitals team that is trying to stay competitive, Oshie remains a valuable piece, and that includes his role on the top power play unit.
#11 Through the first 18 games of the season, Nashville Predators forward Mikael Granlund had managed just one goal on 27 shots. He has since scored five points (3 G, 2 A) in the past five games, and may be better off now that he is back on the wing, skating on a line with rookie Juuso Parssinen and veteran Matt Duchene.
#12 Winnipeg Jets center Adam Lowry typically does not score enough to generate much fantasy interest, but when he is scoring, his physical play does hold some banger league appeal. Lowry has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in the past seven games and, like he has for each of his previous eight NHL seasons, he is averaging more than two hits per game.
#13 It is rarely easy for a backup goaltender to take starts away from the established No. 1 on the team. It is even harder is the No. 1 was the runner-up in Vezina Trophy voting last season. Nevertheless, that is what is happening in Calgary right now. As Jacob Markstrom struggles to find his form, Daniel Vladar has started six of the past eight games, posting a 4-1-1 record and .929 save percentage. That kind of performance allows the Flames to be patient with Markstrom but, for fantasy purposes, Vladar’s value still figures to be short-term. If he continues to play well, then he can complicate that decision to some degree, but Markstrom is likely to return to the starter’s role in the not-too-distant future.
#14 Vladar is one of several rookie goaltenders offering value this season. Logan Thompson in Vegas is the leader, holding a starting role for a first-place team and posting a .918 save percentage in 19 starts. Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner has stepped up, with a .915 save percentage in 15 games, while Jack Campbell has struggled. Carolina’s Pyotr Kochetkov has a .914 save percentage in 10 games and, with Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta not having the best track record for staying healty, Kochetkov could have a significant role.
#15 The Colorado Avalanche are dealing with a terrible run of injuries, especially at forward, where they are missing Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, and Evan Rodrigues. That does not leave Mikko Rantanen with much support. As is stands right now, Alex Newhook and Charles Hudon are flanking Rantanen on Colorado’s top line. Newhook has nine points (6 G, 3 A) in 24 games but has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time over the past three games. Hudon, the former Montreal Canadiens winger, spent the 2020-2021 season in Switzerland and has 73 points (38 G, 35 A) in 86 AHL games since. In two games since he was recalled, Hudon does not have any points but has put 10 shots on goal.
#16 The Calgary Flames have recalled 5-foot-7 winger Matthew Phillips from the American Hockey League, where he was leading the league with 30 points (15 G, 15 A) in 20 games. The challenge for Phillips will be getting real opportunity with skilled linemates. If the Flames offer that, he just might score enough to secure his place in the NHL. The only other skater in the AHL this year averaging more than 1.50 points per game while playing more than 10 games is Columbus prospect Trey Fix-Wolansky, who has 22 points (10 G, 12 A) in 14 games for Cleveland.
#17 Vegas center Jack Eichel is out with a lower-body injury and that has resulted in Paul Cotter getting a chance to skate on the top line with Chandler Stephenson at center and Mark Stone on right wing. Cotter has six points (4 G, 2 A) in 18 games but is averaging more than 15 minutes of ice time per game in the past three while Eichel has been sidelined.
#18 The career of St. Louis Blues winger Josh Leivo has been marked by stints in the AHL and healthy scratches but when he is given a real opportunity, he has the skill to contribute offensively. Leivo has nine points (2 G, 7 A) in the past 14 games, averaging more than 14 minutes of ice time per game. He is skating with Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn, not a bad spot to pick up some points.
#19 Although he has played just a dozen games due to injury, Columbus Blue Jackets right winger Patrik Laine is still seeking his first secondary assist of the season. He is one of nine players that has at least nine points and all nine points have been primary points, either a goal or first assist. The others: Alexander Wennberg, Filip Chytil, Josh Leivo, Josh Anderson, Jason Dickinson, Christian Fischer, Blake Lizotte, and Evan Rodrigues. Philadelphia Flyers right winger Travis Konecny has 12 first assists and just one secondary assist.
While it is standard for playmakers to have more primary assists – 80.8% of Connor McDavid’s points are primary points, for example – there is some value to be found if a player has not been grabbing any secondary assists, because there is a lot of luck in that distribution. A few notables with more than 92% of their points as primary points: Nick Paul, Gabe Vilardi, Jonathan Toews, Victor Olofsson, Yegor Sharangovich, and Jake Guentzel.
#20 At the other end of the spectrum, the forwards that have the lowest percentage of primary points (minimum nine points) are: Artturi Lehkonen, Kyle Okposo, Stefan Noesen, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Joel Farabee, and Patrick Kane. All six are at 50% of lower, with Lehkonen only managing 38.9% of his points as primary points. That does not mean to automatically get rid of these players, but it could be a warning sign that they have been fortunate to accumulate more secondary assists.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
