Eastern Conference Second Half Preview: Comebacks and Collapses
Christmas time is upon us, which means we are getting to the point where the NHL standings reach a standstill. Teams that got off to hot starts have usually done enough to punch their ticket to the playoffs by now and teams that went on prolonged losing streaks have so little room for error the rest of the season that losing one game is a bigger hit than it was in October. Then there’s the group of teams in the middle who do just enough to tread water and have a little more time to figure things out compared to the teams below them.
This year, however, it feels different. Maybe it’s increase in scoring, multiple-goal leads vanishing on a nightly basis or two non-playoff teams last year currently leading their respective divisions (Vegas and New Jersey respectively), but the standings seem more volatile now than ever. Some of this is natural when you have new teams in playoff positions because we’re conditioned to seeing the same teams make it every year and expect them to put it together. The Pittsburgh Penguins are a good example. They were clinging onto a wild card spot about a month ago and now find themselves tied for second in the Metro with a more robust Points Percentage of .655 compared to the Wild Card teams who are in the .580 territory. Winning 11 out of your last 13 games will do that, which is what we expect good teams to do over the course of a season.
It doesn’t always work that way, though. You had a team like Vegas last season who had to weather a storm of injuries for most of the year and could never string enough wins together to clinch a playoff spot. Sometimes you control play for long stretches, and you eventually run out of time. Three-point games happening at least 20% of the time doesn’t help matters either. On the flipside, you have teams who get off to hot starts that are unsustainable and bank enough to wins to the point where they can focus on staying ready for the playoffs by the time their record starts to catch up with their underlying numbers. Teams can also improve throughout the year, as we saw with the New York Rangers adding at the trade deadline after riding a hot power play and elite goaltending to an early playoff spot.
You can usually spot these teams early, but it’s a little tougher this year with so many new faces in the mix, so what we’re going to do with this exercise is look at the division leaders, the water treaders and the trailing teams in the Eastern Conference and guess who is most likely to go on a second half surge and which teams are in danger of a collapse.
Eastern Conference
The Leaders
New Jersey Devils
Collapse Risk: Low-Medium
It was fair to be skeptical of the Devils in November. Now that we’re almost 30 games into the season and they have a Points Percentage that would lead the entire Western Conference, they’re at the benchmark where something would need to go horribly wrong for them to miss the playoffs. You could say it’s been happening the past couple of weeks, as they’ve “stumbled” to a 5-3-2 record with their shooting percentage regressing to a more normal level. It’s good news for them in the long haul because if this is the worst it gets, they can put things into cruise control the rest of the season.
This team at their best has scary potential, though. McKeen’s Free Agent signing Jesse Marshall wrote about the ins and outs of their system last month. They’re a very fast team that is always looking to push for offense and finds a lot of creative ways to generate looks off the rush. It’s something they’ve been building for years, and it all goes back to their star Jack Hughes (and Jesper Bratt obviously).
This chart shows last year’s All Three Zones data for the Devils, showing how much they created off zone entries vs. what they gave up. The bones of this go back to the 2021 season, but the difference now is that they aren’t trading chances and impose more of a territorial dominance. Better talent on the blue line has helped. Dougie Hamilton is healthy, Jonas Siegenthaler is giving Jaccob Slavin a run for his money as the league’s best “defensive defenseman,” John Marino is great at keeping pucks in front of him and keeping the play north. It’s a well-constructed roster that’s finally seeing some reward after years of putting the pieces together.
The risk of a collapse, however, is still present. Although maybe less so now with Vitek Vanecek handling the goaltending duties instead of the inexperienced Akira Schmid. Vanecek isn’t going to be an anyone’s Vezina conversation, but he gave the Devils exactly what they expected, average goaltending. Teams have started to figure them out a little, as they aren’t generating as many chances per night as they were in early November but they’re still one of the better play-driving teams in the league and have avoided losing streaks so far. It really comes down to if their goaltending holds and how their young core handles these doldrum games in the second half.
Boston Bruins
Collapse Risk: Low
It’s hard to find a major fault with the Bruins right now. Could their 5v5 offense be better? Sure, but it’s already top-10 in the league. Is Linus Ullmark the most noteworthy Vezina candidate? Probably not, but Boston’s team defense is usually near the top of the league regardless of who is in the net, so they can ride him for as long as they need to. Brad Marchand has 21 points in 20 games and was recovering from hip surgery not even six months ago. Patrice Bergeron was flirting with retirement over the summer and is probably going to be a Selke finalist again. This isn’t even getting into the phenomenal job Hampus Lindholm did as the team’s top defenseman while Charlie McAvoy missed the start of the year.
The Bruins core is special with how they’ve been able to keep this train going for as long as they have. What’s impressive about this year is they’ve done this while two of their key players were out of the lineup or recovering from surgery. Old friend David Krejci returning certainly helped matters but the addition of Pavel Zacha also inserted some skill into their middle-six, helping Charlie Coyle find some of his scoring touch again. The Bruins look less like “Bergeron’s Line and a bunch of guys” and a team with enough depth to be a threat all year long.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Collapse Risk: Low
Asking anyone to remain calm about the Toronto Maple Leafs is a fool’s errand, but they’re at the point where they’re probably fine as far as the playoffs are concerned. They haven’t lost two games in regulation since the end of October and three games total. The only thing keeping them from being at the top of the conference is the fact that the Boston Bruins exist and don’t appear to be going on a losing streak anytime soon. The Leafs are firing on all cylinders right now, though. They’ve been the highest scoring team in the league at 5v5 over their past 10 games, have gotten remarkable goaltending from the unlikely duo of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov and their star players seem to be trading games where they have multi-point nights. It’s everything you’d expect from the Leafs at this time of year.
The issue (other than the playoff elephant in the room) is they are riding some unsustainable percentages, after having the polar opposite happen to them for most of October. What’s the Leafs “Medium” level at? Is it better than what we’ve seen from Boston and enough to keep them in the Top 3? Given the top end of their roster, it should be enough for them to at least keep pace. Some more depth scoring will help, but Tavares has contributed so much this year that their top two lines are tough to hang with for any team.
Carolina Hurricanes
Collapse Risk: Medium
Carolina is one of the more interesting teams because to the eye, not much has changed with them. They’re still near the top of the Expected Goals leaderboard and struggling to translate it to goals (although it’s way worse this year). This difference is that their goaltending and team defense has been sublime, especially since calling up rookie Pyotr Kochetkov. The 2019 second round pick has been lights out for the Hurricanes, recording two shutouts in his last two starts and carrying the team through this stretch where goals have been tough to come by.
One would figure this is a team ready to take a leap in the second half. Paul Stastny, Teuvo Teravainen and Jesperi Kotkaniemi have three 5v5 goals combined and Max Pacioretty is going to make his return at some point. When that turns around, they have the depth scoring they need to supplement Aho, Necas and Svechnikov. That all sounds fine, but it is similar to what happened with the Vegas Golden Knights last year, where you’re waiting for the dam to break, and it just never does even after the calvary arrives. The good news is that the roster plays such a strong defensive game that they can handle playing in low-scoring affairs but eventually they’re going to need more offense (they have fewer than Columbus as of right now) and they’re not going to stay undefeated in regulation in one-goal games for the rest of the season (they’re currently 8-0-6 while leading the league in overtime games played).
Carolina is in an awkward middle ground. It’s a battle-tested roster that can get through the rigors of the regular season, but there’s enough that CAN go wrong that they shouldn’t be too comfortable.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Collapse Risk: Low
Looking like a team that needed to tread water early in the year, the Lightning looked more like their normal selves after the calendar turned to November. The main concern with them was that after Kucherov, Stamkos and Point the forward corps looked very thin and they played like that for most of October. If Stamkos didn’t score on the power play nobody did. As the season went on, things started to gel. The Brandon Hagels and Nick Pauls of the lineup started to look like they did in the playoffs and a new tree sprouted on their blue line in the form of rookie Nick Perbix. A fun subplot has been Nikita Kucherov cooking as a playmaker at 5v5. Not that his passing was ever doubted before, but the chemistry he has with Brayden Point right now is work at such a high level that he might be in a race with Stamkos to get to 40 goals. That and Point himself seems to have found another gear when it comes to creating magic on his own.
Tough to see this team going anywhere, especially in the Atlantic where they’ve already started to gain some separation.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Collapse Level: Low-Medium
The Pens have a sturdy combination of good underlyings (top 10 in xGF%) and good results, albeit similar to Tampa Bay where it was uneven for most of the year. It took some time for their newer pieces on defense to gel and they were prone to surrendering breakaways. Jeff Petry and Jan Rutta are good players, but they lack footspeed, so being out of position or misreading an assignment had more of catastrophic effect earlier in the year than it does now where it’s just a minor hiccup that they can recover from. The offense has backed them up all season, though and their entire forward corps is healthy for the first time in seemingly forever. They stumbled out of the gate in October but look like they’re around for the long haul, gaining some separation from other teams in the Metro.
Water Treaders
New York Rangers
Collapse Risk: Medium
The Rangers were a tough team to predict heading into the year because while everyone expected their percentage to come down to earth, the “normal” level for this team was unknown. Shesterkin having a “down” year for his standards might be a career season for most goaltenders and is it a net even with the improvements to the rest of the roster? We’re seeing this in action right now and the Rangers look closer to a bubble team than a playoff lock. Their leading 5v5 goal-scorer is a third liner Barclay Goodrow and they haven’t gotten as much as they hoped from their young core after a promising playoff run, so it looks like this team is going to go as far as their older core and Adam Fox takes them (again). It’s a frustrating game because at even strength, they’re a better team and not relying solely on counter-attacks as their only source of goals. The problem has been making the most out of their possessions and not resorting to low-percentage shots once they get in the offensive zone. Sometimes Fox or Panarin will break a coverage down on their own, but it’s tough to do that every night. The Rangers are finding this out with their season being a constant cycle of peaks and valleys.
New York Islanders
Collapse Risk: High
The Isles are probably the most combustible team in the mix right now. Those who were waiting to see what Mat Barzal would look like in a more open system are getting their wish because the Isles are playing the opposite of Trotz Hockey this year. They trade chances on a nightly basis and earlier in the season, they were getting the goals to back it up. Blowing teams out of the building some nights while having their teeth kicked in on other nights. The addition of Alex Romanov gave their blue line a little more mobility than they had last year, but it’s still a unit that struggles to get past the first layer of the forecheck, which leads to a lot of turnovers and opportunities for the attacking team to re-load and come at you again. The Isles have enough shooting talent to burn you when this method works, though. Especially with Barzal and Wahlstrom showing some of the chemistry they had in 2021 and the rest of their forward corps all being pretty good shooters when they get open. It’s just a matter of whether or not Ilya Sorokin can hold the fort down for them in goal, which he has so far and then some.
Their playoff fate might be determined on how the rest of the pack does, but they are playing the most high-risk style with the least amount of room for error of the bunch.
Washington Capitals
Collapse Risk: Medium-High
The vibes in DC are great right now. The Caps have won seven out of their last 10 games and everyone is celebrating Alex Ovechkin making his mark in NHL history by scoring his 800th goal in spectacular fashion. Are good vibes and the determination of a future Hall of Famer enough to get this team back into the playoffs for a ninth consecutive year? It’s been enough to get them back into the picture, but the team has been just flat-out average in just about every statistical category this year despite the hot streak. Being consistent while other teams stumble can be enough to get you in but being average also makes you a house of cards.
When you look for one thing that makes this particular Capitals team, it’s really tough to sell yourself on anything. Most of their offense runs through their defense, which is solid but lacks a true superstar despite John Carlson’s gaudy point totals. Outside of Ovechkin, Kuznetsov is their only game-breaker and he has one goal at five-on-five, Getting TJ Oshie back in the lineup is a nice spark, but he’s not the star talent they need to carry them. Same goes for Anthony Mantha. At the end of the day, it’s a team of “above average to very good” players who are going to sit in this mid-tier territory and hope someone else ahead of them in the standings goes on a losing streak while they try to win five out of 10 the rest of the way (while picking up some points in overtime of course).
Florida Panthers
Collapse Risk: High
While they were expected to take a step back this year, looking at Florida’s stats compared to their results is downright perplexing. Only one team in the league has scored more goals than Florida and produced more scoring chances than them. That team is the Metro leading New Jersey Devils. Florida, on the other hand, is sitting at 14-12-4 and can’t seem to stack win streaks together if their nine lives depended on it. Looking at the other factors beyond goal-scoring leaves you more confused. Their team defense is in the bottom half of the league but they’re still outscoring their opponents. Their special teams haven’t been great but not “worst in the league bad” and their goaltending has been not great but not terrible.
It's truly a “death by a thousand papercuts” year for them, which was prone to happen with the coaching change and roster turnover. They might be getting their money’s worth with Matthew Tkachuk, but they didn’t get as lucky with some of the reclamation projects they tried elsewhere. Josh Mahura and Brandon Montour are looking good but asking Marc Staal to play top-four minutes on a team that demand so much from their defense might have been too much, especially after losing Aaron Ekblad for an entire month.
With Florida, the question is less about a collapse and more about a second-half turnaround. They aren’t far enough out of the race to where they need to go on a winning streak to save it, but they also need to start putting some back-to-back wins together quickly. It was looking like a punted year for them with the cap issues leading to a paper thin roster, but it’s still a club that can score enough to make the playoffs.
Detroit Red Wings
Collapse Risk: Medium
With the Red Wings it’s tough because they aren’t at the point of their timeline where they need to make the playoffs. It’s still a young team with a first-year head coach after all. However, they are deep enough into the rebuild where you want to see some progress and that’s where some of the concerns lie. They’ve gotten themselves to the playoff bubble while not doing much at even strength and riding Ville Husso like a mule. He’s done a great job in his first season as “the guy,” so that bodes well long-term for the team. The setbacks of Lucas Raymond and the mystery that is Filip Zadina’s offensive potential are more looming questions for the team going forward. They probably don’t have to be answered this year, though.
If you’re Detroit, the rest of the year is about progress. Whether that means continued growth from the Seiders and Raymonds of the roster or continuing to install their low-event style of hockey where playing the system is the top priority and results are secondary remains to be seen. They have decent boom potential going forward, seeing how they have a few players who are in shooting slumps and should breakout of it. It’s tough to see David Perron as their most productive forward by the end of the year if they’re in the playoffs.
The Hopefuls
Ottawa Senators
Run Potential: Medium
Seven points out doesn’t feel insurmountable, but when you’ve won seven out of your last 10 games and are still not close to a playoff spot, it gets daunting to look at the standings everyday and say you have a chance. That’s the game the Sens are stuck in right now. They went through two grueling months of playing good hockey but finding different ways to lose. Either they couldn’t score that one big goal when they needed it or they coughed up a point to lose in regulation instead of gaining ground in the standings. It’s just the trials and tribulations of a young team that is still trying to find their way and “learn how to win” as they say.
The potential is there, though. Their offense hasn’t finished as many chances as they hoped, but there’s still time to turn that around and maybe go on a run in the second half. Compare them to a team like Washington or even the Islanders on paper and it’s hard to not at least give them a shot on a given night. They’ve been winning more games lately, but we’re seeing how hard it is to make up ground when your season is already in the ditch.
Montreal Canadiens
Run Potential: Low
Overtime has been Montreal’s best friend this year and it’s part of the reason why they’re closer to the playoff cutline than the bottom of the league right now. The playoffs weren’t exactly in the cards for Montreal this year but playing in competitive games is never a bad thing when you’re rebuilding. The skill of guys like Suzuki and Caufield are keeping them in some games, and you can see what they’re trying to build, but the team has had a tough time generating anything at five-on-five and is playing for future seasons.
Buffalo Sabres
Run Potential: Low-Medium
Buffalo’s had a disjointed season. They were one of the hottest teams in the league in October and have been one of the highest scoring offenses over the past month, yet they’re at the bottom of the division. A rough month of November is mostly to blame for that. It’s hard to believe that one bad month did them in, but they’ve been similar to Florida in that they can’t stack wins together. The emergence of Tage Thompson as a goal-scoring phenom and Rasmus Dahlin becoming a star papered over some of the depth and goaltending issues with this club, which is proving to be too much to overcome right now.
Stay tuned for a look at the Western Conference in the coming weeks.