Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, the Avalanche getting major contributions from unexpected sources, plus David Krejci, Scott Laughton, Kirby Dach, Jason Zucker and many more players picking up the offensive pace.
#1 One of the great bargain free agent signings of last summer, Colorado Avalanche forward Evan Rodrigues has been such a versatile addition. He can play wing or center and moves up and down the lineup as needed. Given Colorado’s injuries, Rodrigues has been needed higher on the depth chart and he is averaging 19:24 of ice time per game. His previous career high was 15:50 per game for Pittsburgh last season. Rodrigues was held off the scoresheet in Calgary Wednesday, snapping a nine-game point streak, during which he produced 12 points (3 G, 9 A) and 26 shots on goal.
#2 Rodrigues isn’t the only Avalanche forward that is playing a whole lot more than expected. Since the beginning of December, J.T. Compher has averaged 22:30 of ice time per game, scoring 20 points (8 G, 12 A) with 61 shots on goal in 23 games. Compher scored a career high 33 points last season but already has 28 points (9 G, 19 A) in 43 games this season.
#3 It is hard to figure how the No. 2 center on the best team in the league is flying under the radar, but that seems to be the case with Bruins pivot David Krejci. The 36-year-old spent last season in Czechia, and it took him a little time to round back into form, but since mid-November he has delivered 28 points (9 G, 19 A) and 48 shots on goal in 27 games. He has always been a sharp playmaker and throughout his career, Krejci has tended to make his linemates better, giving them more opportunities to score with his creative passing.
#4 Flyers center Scott Laughton has been a major factor in Philadelphia’s resurgence. In the past 12 games, he has produced 14 points (5 G, 9 A) and 24 shots on goal. When Laughton is scoring at this rate, he becomes a valuable fantasy commodity, especially in banger leagues, because he is a prolific hitter. There are only two centers, Sam Bennett and Vincent Trocheck, with more points (27) and hits (98) than Laughton.
#5 In his first season with the Montreal Canadiens, center Kirby Dach has had some ups and downs, but the 21-year-old does seem to be discovering his offensive game. He has spent time playing on the wing of Montreal’s No. 1 line, but now is settling into the second line center role. Dach has contributed six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal while playing more than 18 minutes per game in the past seven games and for a rebuilding Habs team that has a ton of injuries, Dach ought to play a lot in the second half of the season.
#6 It has been a long season in Chicago, and there is still a long way to go, and defenseman Seth Jones contributed very little for a long time, but he is finally starting to make his mark offensively. After recording an assist in Thursday’s win at Philadelphia, Jones has scored 10 points (3 G, 7 A) with 19 shots on goal in his past seven games. This surge probably makes it worthwhile to add Jones off the fantasy waiver wire, but beware, Chicago is surely going to be selling before the trade deadline, so Jones may have even more of a skeleton crew as his supporting cast later in the season.
#7 Although he is known more for his defensive play, Carolina Hurricanes blueliner Brett Pesce can be a factor offensively, too. In the past 12 games, Pesce has 10 points (2 G, 8 A) along with 30 shots on goal. He is really a consideration in deep leagues, as Pesce has yet to record 30 points in a season, but his increased offensive contributions do make him fantasy relevant.
#8 Injuries have hindered Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jason Zucker in recent seasons, but he has managed to stay healthy this year and is scoring again. Since the holiday break, Zucker has eight points (6 G, 2 A) in 11 games. What really sets Zucker’s contributions apart this season is a major spike in his hit rate. While it might be a suspect counting stat, Zucker has already recorded a career high 121 hits in 40 games. His previous career high was 87 hits in 2018-2019.
#9 After finishing fourth in the Calder Trophy voting last season, Detroit Red Wings right winger Lucas Raymond is heating up in his sophomore campaign. In his past 12 games, Raymond has delivered 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and the 20-year-old is up to 14 goals on the season, putting him one behind Dylan Larkin for the team lead.
#10 Seattle Kraken right winger Jordan Eberle has found an offensive resurgence, thanks to picking up more assists. In the past nine games, Eberle has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and he has 35 points (10 G, 25 A) in 45 games. He has 0.78 points per game and the last time Eberle finished a season with a higher points per game was the 2014-2015 season.
#11 Florida Panthers left winger Carter Verhaeghe continues to produce even though he has moved off of the top line. He has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 45 shots on goal in the past 17 games, which is pretty standard scoring production for him since arriving in Florida, but he is shooting the puck more this season, a career high 2.98 shots on goal per game.
#12 Replacing Verhaeghe on Aleskander Barkov’s wing in Florida is second year forward Anton Lundell. That change in circumstances makes Lundell suddenly appealing. In the past six games, he has four points (2 G, 2 A) and 21 shots on goal. His scoring is down this season, as he has just 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 38 games, but considering his change in role, Lundell offers upside for the second half of the season.
#13 In recent seasons, Pittsburgh Penguins winger Rickard Rakell has been known as a reliable shot generator who could not finish. From 2018-2019 through 2021-2022, he scored on just 8.8% of his shots on goal. His recent surge of six points (3 G, 3 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past five games gives him a shooting percentage of 11.9%, which would be his highest since the 2017-2018 season.
#14 Anaheim Ducks veteran forward Adam Henrique continues to produce, even for a Ducks squad that is lingering around the bottom of the standings. In his past 11 games, Henrique has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 20 shots on goal. As a steady veteran on an unsteady team, Henrique is playing first line left wing and getting first unit power play time, which gives him the chance to produce at this level. If he were to get traded before the deadline, there would be some give-and-take when it comes to his future value. Henrique would surely have better teammates elsewhere but would likely not get the prime ice time that he is receiving in Anaheim.
#15 There was a time early in the season, when Aaron Ekblad was injured, that Panther’s defenseman Brandon Montour was enjoying a surge of production and it seemed all predicated on the opportunities presented by Ekblad’s absence. Turns out that even with Ekblad in the lineup, Montour can be a very productive blueliner. In the past 18 games, for example, he has 16 points (3 G, 13 A) and 43 shots on goal. That lifts his season total to 38 points in just 45 games, which is already a career high, surpassing the 37 that Montour scored in 81 games last season.
#16 Signed to a new four-year-, $19 million contract extension, Boston Bruins forward Pavel Zacha has been nice fit in a supporting role on the league’s best team. He can move around the lineup and play in a scoring or checking role. Right now, the points are going his way. In the past 13 games, Zacha has produced 11 points (5 G, 6 A), which is outstanding, considering that all of those points have come at even strength, but a note of caution: Zacha only has 16 shots on goal in those 13 games, and low shot rates tend to concern me when it comes to projecting future production.
#17 One of my favorite unheralded forwards is Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse. He is day-to-day with an upper-body injury right now but leads the Coyotes with 16 goals and he is heating up (or was before getting hurt). In 12 games since the holiday break, Crouse has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 23 shots on goal. He also adds banger value, delivering 33 hits in those 12 games. He may never live up to the hype that was building around him leading up to getting picked ninth overall in 2015, but the 25-year-old is well on his way to a second straight 20-goal season. His 29 even strength goals over the past two seasons leaves Crouse tied for 65th. It is the same number of even strength goals as scored by Travis Konecny, Nazem Kadri, and John Tavares.
#18 Another player who is facing challenges as he tries to live up to prospect hype, Buffalo Sabres forward Casey Mittelstadt is finding his niche as a playmaker in a supporting role. In his past 18 games, Mittelstadt has 14 points (2 G, 12 A) with 27 shots on goal. He does not shoot enough but Mittelstadt’s puck skills provide him the chance to play on the power play. Of his 27 points this season, 12 have come with the man advantage.
#19 Since the holiday break, these are the leaders in expected goals during five-on-five play: Timo Meier, Carter Verhaeghe, Connor McDavid, Jack Hughes, Brayden Point, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Anders Lee, Tyler Seguin, Zach Hyman, and Tanner Jeannot. It is an interesting list with mostly premier first-line forwards. It includes some crease crashers like Lee and Hyman, and Seguin is likely benefitting from his recent stint on Dallas’ top line while Roope Hintz is injured. The most interesting name on the list, though, is Nashville Predators winger Tanner Jeannot, who scored 24 goals as a rookie last season but has been snakebit as a sophomore. Jeannot has just three goals on 71 shots in 45 games. He is a massive hitter, with more than 300 last season and 164 in 45 games this season, so if he ever starts converting his chances, Jeannot will have fantasy value, especially in banger leagues.
#20 Not that Montreal Canadiens winger Juraj Slafkovsky was a major factor in fantasy leagues this season, but the No. 1 pick in the 2022 Draft was rushed into the league and the results were underwhelming. He scored 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 42 shots on goal in 39 games and while he had some moments in which he showed his talent, there were plenty of moments when he was overmatched and, sometimes, caught unaware by a big hit. He is only 18 years old, so there is time for him to develop into the premier power forward that was expected on draft day, but expectations should also be kept in check after seeing the results of his first half season in the NHL. As it is, Slafkovsky has suffered a lower-body injury that will keep him out for the next three months, ending his season.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.
