Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, the trade business is starting to pick up, so look to Ryan O’Reilly in Toronto and Dmitry Orlov heading to Boston, plus Anthony Beauvillier, Max Domi, Thomas Novak, Samuel Girard and more that could be worth adding to your fantasy squad.
#1 The Toronto Maple Leafs made a big splash ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline, acquiring center Ryan O’Reilly from the St. Louis Blues. O’Reilly was having a rough year in St. Louis, with 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in 40 games, but has a whole new opportunity in Toronto. He is centering the second line, between John Tavares and Mitch Marner. In his first three games with the Leafs, O’Reilly has five points, including a hat trick at Buffalo on Tuesday.
#2 Coming with O’Reilly in the trade to Toronto is Noel Acciari, a versatile forward who does offer some banger league fantasy value. Acciari has 19 points (11 G, 8 A) in 57 games, so he is not a big scorer, but he has 181 hits, including 13 in three games for Toronto. Acciari’s 11 goals and 19 points is the most of any forward with more than 170 hits.
#3 Having traded already traded Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola before dealing O’Reilly and Acciari, the Blues are left with a thin lineup. That could provide an opportunity to find value from players that might not be top of mind when it comes to fantasy value. Brandon Saad returned from injury to skate on the top line with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. Ivan Barbashev still has a role in the Blues’ top six, at least until he is moved out before the deadline. That could open the door for Josh Leivo or Sammy Blais to see a more significant role down the stretch.
#4 The Boston Bruins did not stand pat with their league-leading record, making a trade with the Washington Capitals on Thursday for defenseman Dmitry Orlov and right winger Garnet Hathaway. Orlov has decent fantasy value in deeper leagues, even though he has never scored more than 35 points in a season. He is playing more than 22 minutes per game this season, the second highest average of his career, and his 88 hits in 43 games is a higher rate than he has recorded in any of his previous 10 NHL seasons.
#5 Garnet Hathaway’s contributions are not that different from Acciari. Hathaway had 16 points (9 G, 7 A) and 198 hits in 59 games for Washington. That style of play should endear him to the Bruins faithful and, playing for a strong Bruins team, might give Hathaway some banger league appeal. With Orlov departing, it looks like Trevor van Riemsdyk will see a bigger role with the Capitals, which includes time on the second power play unit. In his past eight games, van Riemsdyk has contributed four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal, so it would be too soon to recommend him in most leagues, but it is worth keeping an eye on his role.
#6 A new role with a new team can make all the difference. Just look at Anthony Beauvillier and what he has done with Vancouver since getting acquired in the Bo Horvat trade. Beauvillier has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 23 shots on goal while playing more than 19 minutes per game in his first nine games for the Canucks. Skating on the top line with Elias Pettersson and playing first unit power play is a better situation than what Beauvillier was typically afforded during his time with the New York Islanders.
#7 While the trade deadline spotlight in Chicago is focused on Patrick Kane, do not overlook Max Domi, who is on a tear of his own and could be moved. Domi has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 13 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. He has 46 points (17 G, 29 A) in 57 games, the third highest point total of his career, while playing a career high 18:14 per game.
#8 One of my favorite value players, Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner is still available in many leagues and in his past 13 games, Jenner has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 54 shots on goal. Add in 32 hits and a ton of faceoffs and Jenner can contribute to a lot of fantasy categories. Getting to center Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine on the Blue Jackets’ top line has its benefits.
#9 While the popular opinion is that the Colorado Avalanche will acquire a second line center before the trade deadline, they have been getting quality production in that spot from J.T. Compher. In his past 14 games, Compher has produced 14 points (3 G, 11 A) while averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. The Avs are running Mikko Rantanen on Compher’s right wing and that is a prime opportunity for Compher, who has already hit a career high with 38 points (11 G, 27 A) in 55 games.
#10 Known more for his defensive acumen, Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli becomes a more dangerous player when he is contributing offensively, too, and that is how it has been going lately. In his past seven games, Cirelli has eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 16 shots on goal.
#11 With Ryan Johansen suffering a season-ending injury, the Nashville Predators are getting thin down the middle of the ice. That does put second year pivot Thomas Novak into the spotlight, though. Novak has eight points (4 G, 4 A) during a four-game point streak and played a career-high 18:39 in Thursday’s win at San Jose.
#12 There have been ups and downs for second year Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis, but he appears to be hitting his groove. He has six points (4 G, 2 A) in the past three games and has recorded at least three shots on goal in six straight games. He has returned to skating on Carolina’s top line, with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, so Jarvis could be poised for a strong finish, though his long-term place on the top line could depend on what the Hurricanes do before the trade deadline.
#13 Although the San Jose Sharks are not headed to the postseason, veteran center Logan Couture is having another productive campaign. In his past nine games, Couture has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 22 shots on goal. He has 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 59 games, giving him more than 0.80 points per game. The last time he finished a season with that per-game scoring rate was 2018-2019. It is fair to have some skepticism about Couture’s production, however, as his wingers are Michael Eyssimont and Alexander Barabanov, not exactly established premier scoring wingers, and there is a good chance that San Jose’s lineup will get depleted by trades before the deadline.
#14 With Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar again out of the lineup, it is worth paying more attention to puck moving Avs blueliner Samuel Girard. In his past 10 games, the 24-year-old defenseman has 11 points (1 G, 10 A) and 22 shots on goal while playing more than 23 minutes per game. He does most of his damage at even strength, too, with five of his 23 points this season coming on the power play.
#15 His track record leaves me wary, but Columbus Blue Jackets netminder Joonas Korpisalo has undeniably had a strong season and, with a contract that expires at season’s end, he could be a possible trade deadline addition for a team looking to stabilize its goaltending. Korpisalo has a .913 save percentage in 27 games, which ranks 16th among goaltenders that have appeared in at least 20 games. The lure for any contending teams is that Korpisalo was outstanding in his only postseason experience, posting a .941 save percentage in nine games during the 2019-2020 “bubble” Playoffs.
#16 Leading the Pacific Division, the Vegas Golden Knights have lost goaltenders Logan Thompson and Adin Hill to injuries, prompting the club to recall Laurent Brossoit from the American Hockey League. Brossoit has stopped 62 of 67 shots in two starts since getting pressed into action and he will have value as long as he is going to play. Over his career, he has been an adequate backup, albeit one that does not play very frequently. Can he handle a starter’s role, even in the short term for Vegas? It could be worth a waiver add to find out.
#17 The New York Islanders are in a dire situation now as they battle for a playoff spot. Centers Mathew Barzal and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are among the five forwards out of the lineup. That means Matt Martin is skating on the top line and Kyle Palmieri is on the first power play unit. In his past six games, Martin has five points (2 G, 3 A), 11 shots on goal and 21 hits. In deep leagues, that’s worth a look, even if it is on a short-term basis. After returning from an injury last month, Palmieri has put up nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 32 shots and 21 hits in 13 games. Given his track record, and the fact that he gets more ice time, Palmieri is an even better addition for fantasy managers.
#18 Philadelphia Flyers leading scorer Travis Konecny is dealing with an upper-body injury and that means looking to young wingers who might get more of an opportunity. Owen Tippett has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 36 shots on goal in the past 12 games. He played more than 20 minutes in Florida’s loss at Edmonton on Tuesday, the first time since November that he played more than 20 minutes in a game.
#19 In 2023, the leaders in terms of individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 100 minutes): John Tavares, Brady Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, Kevin Fiala, Zach Hyman, Boone Jenner, Connor McDavid, Michael Eyssimont, and Timo Meier. There are a lot of expected names there, but Jenner and Eyssimont stand out for the company they are keeping in this regard. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some surprises, too. Naturally, fourth-line forwards tend to be the ones generating the fewest expected goals, but there are others. Among the 401 forwards that have played at least 100 minutes since January 1, Mitch Marner ranks 378th. Some other notables: Joel Farabee (373), Andrew Copp (359), and Sam Steel (353).
#20 The most dominant line in hockey probably comes as a surprise. According to Evolving Hockey, there are 59 lines that have played at least 200 minutes together during five-on-five play. The same line ranks first in Corsi For percentage, Expected Goals Percentage, and Goals For Percentage. That line is the Calgary Flames trio of Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Blake Coleman. In the past 18 games, Mangiapane has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) and 51 shots on goal, Backlund has 20 points (6 G, 14 A) and 63 shots on goal, and Coleman has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 50 shots on goal.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
