Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, checking in with some players making the most of opportunities with new teams. Dmitry Orlov, Rasmus Sandin, Nino Niederreiter, Ivan Barbashev, and maybe even Jonathan Quick are in positions to play a big role down the stretch.
#1 In more than a decade playing for the Washington Capitals, defenseman Dmitry Orlov earned a reputation as a reliable defenseman but was not a big offensive producer. He scored a career high 12 goals and 35 points last season but rarely had an opportunity on the first power play unit because that was mostly the domain of John Carlson. In his first six games with the Boston Bruins, Orlov has put up nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 14 hits. He has been getting a look on the top power play unit, which suddenly makes Orlov much more appealing for fantasy managers.
#2 With the Capitals overhauling their blueline, there has been a huge opportunity given to Rasmus Sandin who has put up five points (1 G, 4 A) in his first three games for the Capitals and logged a career-high 29:58 in Thursday’s 3-2 shootout loss to New Jersey. Nine of Sandin’s 20 assists have come on the power play and he figures to get his fill of time with the man advantage for the rest of the season.
#3 Arriving in Winnipeg from Nashville, winger Nino Niederreiter has been installed at right wing on the Jets’ top line, alongside left winger Kyle Connor and center Mark Scheifele. Niederreiter has contributed four points (2 G, 2 A) in five games for Winnipeg, but his shot rate is worth watching. Niederreiter has 13 shots on goal in his past four games and was averaging a career-high 2.32 shots on goal per game with Nashville. If he stays in a top line role and can generate three shots per game, that is the kind of situation in which Niederreiter can produce at a higher level.
#4 There was little doubt that Ivan Barbashev would be a good fit for a contending team when he was traded from the St. Louis Blues before the deadline, but the move to the Vegas Golden Knights has had very positive initial results. In his first six games for Vegas, Barbashev has contributed five points (2 G, 3 A) while averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game. He is getting a chance to skate at left wing on the top line with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault, which offers more offensive upside than Barbashev typically had in St. Louis.
#5 Veteran Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie is giving his all, even if it looks like the Capitals are not on the way to the postseason. In his past 11 games, Oshie has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 20 hits, which is still a valuable fantasy contribution from the 36-year-old.
#6 There were some trade rumors surrounding Arizona Coyotes Nick Schmaltz, but he remained in the desert. Schmaltz, who was much of a setup man early in his career, is becoming more of a finisher and, after scoring in Thursday’s 4-1 win over Nashville, Schmaltz has tallied 25 points (14 G, 11 A) in his past 19 games. With 21 goals in 49 games on the season, Schmaltz is two away from his career high, set in 63 games last season.
#7 One of the hottest goal scorers in the league right now is still available in a significant percentage of fantasy leagues. Seattle Kraken winger Jared McCann scored two goals in Thursday’s 5-4 loss to Ottawa, giving him 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 26 shots on goal in his past six games. McCann has been enjoying a high shooting percentage, scoring on a career-high 22.4% of his shots this season, but his recent spike in his shot rate is an encouraging sign. If he is going to remain a highly productive goal scorer, it is a lot easier to do so when averaging more than four shots per game as he has over the past couple of weeks.
#8 Although the Philadelphia Flyers are just finishing up the season, with no hope for the postseason, there is still a chance for some players to make the most of a late season opportunity. Owen Tippett has had a breakthrough season for the Flyers scoring 18 goals and 34 points through 60 games. The 24-year-old winger is logging big minutes now. In his past seven games, Tippett has four points (3 G, 1 A) and 34 shots on goal while averaging nearly 22 minutes of ice time per game and given the limited depth on the Flyers roster, Tippett should continue to get big minutes the rest of the way.
#9 It can be easy to get overlooked in New Jersey, especially as a third line center behind Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, but Erik Haula is proving to be an effective contributor in his own right. Even though he is scoring on a career-low 6.1% of his shots for the season, Haula has nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 20 shots on goal in his past nine games. With Ondrej Palat and Jesper Bratt his most recent wingers, Haula is in position to chip in more offensively than a run-of-the-mill third line center.
#10 Veteran Tampa Bay Lightning winger Alex Killorn had a career-high 59 points last season, the first time in his career that he had surpassed 50 points, but the 33-year-old is knocking on that door again, with 49 points in 65 games. In his past 10 games, Killorn has delivered 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and has a regular spot as part of Tampa Bay’s first power play unit.
#11 New York Islanders captain Anders Lee can be a force in front of the net and he has provided a much-needed source of goal scoring. In his past 10 games, Lee has contributed 10 points (7 G, 3 A) with 32 shots on goal. He is up to 26 goals on the season and has a good chance to have his most productive goal-scoring campaign since scoring a career-high 40 goals in 2017-2018.
#12 Dallas Stars rookie Wyatt Johnston has been a solid contributor but has started to handle a more substantial role as the season has progressed. In his past seven games, Johnston has six points (3 G, 3 A) with 18 shots on goal while averaging more than 16 minutes of ice time per game. Johnston is tied for third among rookies with 16 goals and is thriving as the center on a line between veteran wingers Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov. Since he was acquired from Montreal, Dadonov has chipped in five points (2 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in six games.
#13 The way the season was going, it did not look like there would be much of a role remaining for 37-year-old goaltender Jonathan Quick after he was traded to Columbus in the deal that sent Joonas Korpisalo and Vladislav Gavrikov to Los Angeles. The Blue Jackets flipped Quick to Vegas and now, with Adin Hill the latest Golden Knights goaltender to get injured, Quick is looking at an opportunity to start games down the stretch for the team that sits in first place in the Pacific Division. He has a .878 save percentage in 33 games, so it’s fair to wonder about his level of play, but if Quick is going to start for a winning team, he will likely have value for fantasy managers.
#14 Injuries have hit the Ottawa Senators goaltenders, too, so 22-year-old rookie Mads Sogaard should see substantial playing time for the next three weeks, at least, while Cam Talbot is out. In eight games, Sogaard has a .899 save percentage, but that was brought down by his allowing five goals on 21 shots in Sunday’s loss at Chicago. With the Sens pushing for a playoff spot, Sogaard ought to have some fantasy appeal, at least for teams that are desperate enough to need goaltending help at this stage of the season.
#15 The Minnesota Wild lineup was dealt a big blow with news that leading scorer Kirill Kaprizov suffered a lower-body injury in Wednesday’s victory at Winnipeg. The Wild have called up Sammy Walker from the AHL, where he had 44 points (24 G, 20 A) in 50 games in his first pro season after playing four years at the University of Minnesota. Veteran winger Marcus Johansson, who was acquired from Washington before the trade deadline, could take on more responsibility.
#16 Moving to the Toronto Maple Leafs looked like a great opportunity for center Ryan O’Reilly to salvage what had been an otherwise forgettable season. He was skating on a line with John Tavares and Mitch Marner to start, then Tavares and William Nylander, but then O’Reilly suffered a broken finger, and he will miss the next four weeks. That gives Calle Jarnkrok, who has 29 points (14 G, 15 A) in 57 games, more of an opportunity to play in Toronto’s top six.
#17 It might be a good time to buy low on Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson. He has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) in his past 12 games, and he has 51 shots on goal in that span. Arvidsson had averaged better than three shots on goal per game in five of the previous six seasons but has been under that threshold this season. His recent increase in shot rate is getting him back to more typical levels of production and it makes his goal scoring more sustainable.
#18 Although Montreal Canadiens defenseman Mike Matheson has missed a bunch of time with injuries, he has been handling a heavy workload when he is in the lineup. In 14 games since the All-Star break, Matheson has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) and 36 shots on goal, while averaging 25:21 of ice time per game, which ranks seventh in the league over that time.
The player who was traded for Matheson, Jeff Petry, is contributing to the Penguins’ playoff push, too. With a couple of assists in Thursday’s loss to the Islanders, Petry has nine points (2 G, 7 A) and 28 shots on goal in his past 10 games. He also delivered 11 hits against the Islanders and has 39 hits in his past 10 games, which makes him even more appealing for fantasy managers.
#19 Although he has just two goals in 37 games, the Kings’ Quinton Byfield is starting to get some results while playing left wing on the top line alongside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Byfield has recorded an assist in five straight games and played a career-high 18:01 in Thursday’s win at Colorado. This is not a recommendation to immediately add Byfield, more like a notification that the second pick in the 2020 Draft may be turning the corner in his development.
#20 The leading per-game point scorers since the All-Star break: Connor McDavid (2.00), Pavel Buchnevich (1.64), Clayton Keller (1.60), Mitch Marner (1.58), Nathan MacKinnon (1.53), Elias Pettersson (1.53), Artemi Panarin (1.47), William Nylander (1.42), Anze Kopitar (1.38), and Tim Stutzle (1.36). A lot of those names are familiar and to be expected, but Buchnevich and Keller are hanging in elite company and Stutzle’s breakout campaign continues in full force as the Sens push for a playoff spot.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.