The Setting:
Sometimes the playoffs can be more of a game of “what have you done for me lately?” Teams can secure their spot before American Thanksgiving and coast the rest of the way while others have to put long winning streaks together in March just to make the dance. This is the case in this first round matchup between the Hurricanes and the Islanders. The Islanders ended the season a high note by clinching a playoff spot in Game 82. They also have reinforcements on the way with Mathew Barzal returning. Carolina, despite winning the Metro, is limping into the playoffs.
Riding high for most of the year, the Hurricanes have struggled mightily since the trade deadline, just barely posting a .500 record in their past 25 games and having question marks all over the roster. They are one of only two playoff teams to have a negative goal differential at five-on-five over their last 25 games, have one of the worst team shooting percentages in the league over that span and aren’t getting any help from the injured list with Andrei Svechnikov going down with an ACL tear just after they opted to not make any major roster tweaks at the trade deadline.
Carolina might be the division winner, but they’re the one with more questions on their roster, which extends to the goalies as neither Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta nor Pyotr Kochetkov has established themselves as the “go-to guy.” Meanwhile, the Isles are getting their star player back and have a sure-thing in net with Ilya Sorokin. If there was an easy upset pick, this would be it.
Although every team that has played the Hurricanes knows that nothing ever comes easy against them, and it will be a grind even if the vibes are all on New York’s side coming in.
The Matchup:
This is somewhat of an ideal first round matchup because both teams are almost mirror images of each other. Both rely more on their team play and goal-scoring by-committee rather than having one star do all the work. They’re also among the stingiest teams in the league, although with somewhat different approaches. The Isles don’t give up a lot of goals, but they do spend a lot of time in their zone and will give up a high number of shots, leaning on Sorokin more than they would like to some nights. Carolina, on the other hand, is all about territorial dominance. They wear teams down in the offensive zone and play more of an aggressive, pressure-based game in the defensive zone to keep the workload light for their goaltenders.
The Islanders were arguably the best matchup for Carolina for this exact reason. They want to spend time on the attack and the Isles will probably give it to them. It’s also a tough matchup for them because the Islanders play a similar style to what did them in against the Rangers. They might not have finishing talent, but the Islanders can counter-attack when the opportunity presents itself. Most of their forwards are good shooters who can strike on limited opportunities and the returning Barzal along with newcomer Engvall give them some puck-carriers who will push for offense. Carolina saw that a little earlier in the season.
Both of these teams love to dump the puck in, especially the Islanders. Both defenses know this and will probably cheat to get a head start on retrieving the puck, so a little deception can go a long way to creating some extra chances. Carolina seems especially vulnerable to that with how shaky their goaltending has been, but they did burn the Islanders in this same game with a couple rush goals of their own.
Squeezing out a couple extra rush chances here and there could go a long way for Carolina, as the Islanders aren’t going to try to attack in transition unless they force a turnover and there’s going to be opportunities for Carolina to counter off failed clears in the neutral zone. Finishing their chances when they get an open look on Sorokin is going to be the tough part and the Isles method of baiting you into an extra pass makes it tougher.
This is where the Islanders stingy defense can be taken advantage of by good passing teams and where the Hurricanes defense corps gives them an edge. They have the second highest scoring defense in the league with Brent Burns and Brady Skjei both scoring 15+ goals a piece and newcomer Shayne Gostisbehere giving them a dynamic passing option from up high. With most of this series being played in the Islanders zone, it’s going to be less about Carolina creating a cumulative number of chances and more about getting one past Sorokin. This is where the games could get frustrating for Carolina if they fall behind because they’re such a shot-volume team and the Isles are content playing that game as long as they block or disrupt. Open ice is available, but it’s going to take a lot of patience and precision for Carolina to capitalize on it.
When the Isles are defending well, they don’t give you much. The slot is blocked off, the shooting lanes are challenged, and they want you to play hot potato with the puck in their own zone forever. It’s an exhausting style of defense, but it works against impatient teams.
This is why the Islanders give up more shots than your standard strong defensive team. They’re content with playing in their own zone for stretches because they stay disciplined with taking away the middle while also pressuring the points and the boards to force quick decisions. It can be exploited, though. Buffalo attempted to do so on a play from behind the net, but just missed on the pass and Pittsburgh also got a shot from the circles (albeit one that Sorokin saw the entire way). Other teams have also been able to capitalize on plays where the Isles get too aggressive with taking away the points.
Again, this isn’t something every team can pull off because it takes pinpoint passing and some risk from the attacking team. The Hurricanes aren’t a team that likes using a forward up high on cycles, unless it’s Sebastian Aho or Martin Necas taking it low-to-high on their own, but it’s something they might have to adjust to if their defense aren’t getting any shooting lanes. Still, they’re very standard with their offensive zone system. Everything goes-low-to-high with forwards crowding the net rather than looking for an extra pass, which could play into the Islanders hands if they get a lead. This is also the quicksand they got stuck in against the Rangers last year, so we will see if they make any adjustments.
X-Factors
This series could potentially have fewer than 15 goals scored at even strength over seven games, so special teams are going to be a major player. Neither team has had much going in this department. Carolina’s power play has been in the top-half of the league most of the year and has slipped back into the bottom-10 over the past two months. Gostisbehere gave them somewhat of a different look after the trade deadline, moving Brent Burns from the point to the right circle, but overall, they’ve struggled to find anything consistent with the man-advantage since losing Andrei Svechnikov. The Isles, meanwhile, have had one of the worst power plays in the league and are the fourth worst team in the league in goals scored with the man-advantage since the trade deadline. The only play they can setup with any consistency is Bo Horvat from the bumper position, so any success they have will be based on rebounds or how many shots Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock can get through, which is tough to do against a Carolina penalty kill that excels at taking away obvious shooting threats.
Something has to give here.
Prediction
This is looking like a seven-gamer. The Islanders have all the momentum on their side, but Carolina didn’t get to first in the division by being a bad team. They’ve also been a very good team in the opening round of the playoffs under Rod Brind’Amour, advancing in all four of his years as head coach (depending on how you want to view the bubble playoffs). The playoffs will be a grind for Carolina, but their five-on-five play should be enough to move them to the second round.