MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Johnny Gaudreau – LW

Gaudreau’s first season with Columbus may not have led to a high impact in the league standings, but from a personal output perspective, Gaudreau’s offensive outputs eclipsed his peers on the team by significant totals. Most of his damage was done off of the rush, where he also led the Jackets in both controlled entries and shots off of those controlled entries. Gaudreau’s passing also helped to elevate his teammates as only Jakub Voracek had more high danger passes at even-strength last season. Gaudreau’s elite skating and hockey sense enabled him to consistently find time and space for himself throughout the course of the year. As Columbus continues their rebuild, finding top line talent that can provide a set-up element to Gaudreau’s game will be crucial. A lot of the creating that Gaudreau did was independent of a high-level of passes to the danger areas of the offensive zone. Given that he was a mere 13 points away from the Jackets franchise record for points, it’s not unreasonable to assume he could break that record if given a stronger supporting cast of characters in the near future.

Patrik Laine – RW

Laine again struggled with injuries and availability in an otherwise strong campaign. His production was down by three points in one less game than the previous season, but he saw increased returns in his defensive performance and his passing distribution in the offensive zone, giving a much more complete picture of what Laine can do when he’s available and showing engagement throughout the ice. He did a surprising, volunteer stint as a center last season and held his own in the process. He led all Blue Jacket forwards in shot-attempts by a wide margin and was just behind Johnny Gaudreau in quality scoring chance production by a tenth of a percentage point. Laine’s puck handling was also on display in a prominent fashion last year as he was second among Blue Jacket forwards in both chances created off the rush and shots created off of the rush. Laine remains a pure sniper with a high-velocity shot and above-average finishing ability. If he can continue to round out his game as he has the last two seasons, the only thing stopping him from being an impact player is his health and availability. His peripherals outside of scoring getting a bump last season has people interested in whether or not that trend can continue.

Boone Jenner - C

The Blue Jacket’s Captain saw a 2022-23 campaign where, despite a recurring bout of injuries to his hand and back, he was able to post high water marks in goals (26) and points (45) that he had not achieved since the 2015-16 season. Jenner was cemented as Columbus’ top line center and posted those totals in the face of some difficult deployments. The aforementioned injuries seemed to hit Jenner at the worst times and during periods of strong play. Only Patrik Laine attempted more shots than Jenner at even-strength last season. In addition, Jenner’s expected goal shares were a net positive relative to his teammates. As evidenced by his assist totals, play making and passes that created a shot-attempt were not a part of his strong suit last season. Jenner has some youthful challengers around him that can push for the top center spot for the Blue Jackets as the year progresses. Whether or not Jenner can stay healthy and maintain his place in the lineup will be the biggest question of the upcoming season.

Kent Johnson – LW

Johnson’s rookie season needs to be ingested with a heavy dose of perspective. This young member of the Blue Jackets ended his first full professional season on an echelon that he simply wasn’t close to when the year began. When it was all said and done, Johnson was a routine member of the Jackets top six forward group and he carved out 16 goals and 40 points in 79 games despite some raw youthfulness behind his performances. As his game became more refined, so did his ice time. Johnson was deployed heavily in offensive situations and started a higher percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone than any other Blue Jackets forward. Johnson’s finishing ability was on display throughout the year, and he showcased a wrist shot that possessed several deceptive elements. That being said, his ability to control the play at even-strength and contribute to longer offensive shifts will need to improve. Johnson’s share of expected goals was second to last on the team at just 41 percent. Moving into next year, Johnson will need to continue to refine his game and become more involved away from the puck. Drafted as a center, there’s a question as to whether he will remain on the wing or return to his natural position.

Kirill Marchenko – RW

Marchenko was called up in December and scored 13 goals in the first two months of the season before leveling out and cooling off later in the year. He finished the season with a total of 21 goals and had the fourth highest rate of scoring-chance generation on the team. Marchenko also posted some of the stronger defensive returns on a Blue Jackets team that struggled overall from a defensive perspective. Marchenko didn’t do a ton of heavy lifting with regards to zone entries, but he was a volume shooter, generating the fourth highest rate of even-strength shots among Blue Jacket forwards. Marchenko has shown a deep, unique set of offensive skills that he isn’t afraid to utilize. He’s very bullish with the puck on his stick and sometimes holds it to a detriment. He had the lowest number of high danger passes on the Blue Jackets roster and had none attributed to his name in the games tracked by the All Three Zones project. As Marchenko evolves, puck distribution will be a critical element of his game as he looks to further cement his spot in the top six.

Jack Roslovic – C

Roslovic’s season had a mix of successes and struggles but ultimately ended with a performance that is likely a little below the line of where he was deployed. With his time on ice reflective firmly of a second line player, Roslovic finished the season with just 11 goals and the worst share of expected goals among any Blue Jacket forward at this season with just 40.6 percent of the quality shots to his name at five-on-five. These results are perplexing when you consider that Roslovic led the Blue Jackets in zone entries per 60 and created more shots off of the forecheck than any forward on the team per the All Three Zones project. These loose ends make a little more sense when you also consider Roslovic had the second highest rate of giveaways on the team and generally made some low-percentage plays from the exterior of the high-danger areas with those possessions. Additionally, Roslovic’s defensive returns were in the 6th percentile among NHL forwards. The wow-factor that Roslovic can provide hasn’t been consistent enough or developed beyond what fans saw upon his arrival in Columbus. There is a large question around where his best deployment is moving into this upcoming season.

Emil Bemstrom – LW

Bemstrom played 55 games for the Blue Jackets last year as he spent a chunk of time in the AHL with Cleveland. The sheen of an exciting, sniper-based prospect has quickly dissolved off of Bemstrom’s game and there’s some question about where he projects for the current state of the Blue Jackets makeup. His defensive work has been his best attribute so far. While he exhibited an ability to take defensive zone deployments and flourish, he struggled in some critical areas of offensive support. Per the All Three Zones data, Bemstrom put had the lowest total of shots off the forecheck and the second lowest total of zone entries per 60 among Blue Jacket forwards. Bemstrom’s shot, arguably his best asset, hasn’t been used in enough high-danger areas to make an impact. As a result, Bemstrom had the second lowest even-strength shooting percentage on the team at just over four percent. Tying this back into Bemstrom’s lack of shots on the forecheck, and it’s clear that the challenge for him is to find ways to get to the front of the net and generate scoring chances from in tight on goal. There will be a battle for him to carve out his place in the bottom six for Columbus this season.

Cole Sillinger - C

Sillinger hit a lot of struggles in his second year in the league, including a run where he went on a nearly 50 game goal-scoring drought in the middle of the season before ultimately being sent down to the American Hockey League. That sophomore slump, combined with an average-at-best performance in the AHL, raises legitimate questions about where Sillinger will start the year for Columbus in 2023-24. A big problem for Sillinger comes from the results outside of his goal scoring. Goal scoring slumps can be tolerable when players are driving play and generating chances, but that truly was not the case here. Sillinger’s game seemed to develop a vanilla element and appeared to lack confidence. Sillinger’s hallmark in his rookie season was creating space and participating in zone entries. This season, he had the second lowest carry-in percentage of any forward on the Blue Jackets. I’d argue Sillinger’s path to returning to impactful hockey is centric towards putting the puck on his stick more this season. His confidence in carrying the puck and pushing the play forward garnered him a load of shots and chances in his rookie season that were simply missing from his game entirely last year.

Alexandre Texier – RW

Texier returns to the NHL for 2023-24 after playing in Switzerland last year. In dealing with a personal issue, Texier opted to be closer to his family in France. He returns to the NHL with 49 points to his name in 129 career games. Texier’s returns defensively make him a good bet to feature as a winger on the third line. His penalty killing impacts have traditionally been strong as a direct link to his defensive performances at even-strength and it’s expected he’ll make a significant impact in that area as well. He’s coming off of a productive season in Zurich where he scored 35 points in 46 games and played a significant role on special teams. Hearkening back to his last time in the NHL, Texier played a massive role in forechecking per the All Three Zones data from that season. He recovered the third most dump-ins among team forwards that season. The expectation is that he’ll have a continued impact in that area as well as the other traditionally difficult areas of the ice. Expect Texier to be present in front of the net and creating issues for opposing defensemen with his forechecking ability.

Defense

Zach Werenski – D

Werenski’s campaign was cut drastically short after just 13 games last season. Werenski landed awkwardly on his elbow and ended up requiring surgery that would cut his season short. While there isn’t enough of a body of work to make any drastic evaluations from his prior year, what we can acknowledge is how strong he started the year offensively speaking. Through the first 13 games of the year, Werenski registered three goals and five points in that small sample, putting him well on his way to pacing towards a career high in points. With his health back, Werenski will be looked upon as the champion of the Blue Jackets backline. From taking on the most difficult minutes Mike Babcock and the coaching staff can drum up to being looked at to help drive zone entries and offensive contributions. Looking back at the All Three Zone data from 2021-22, Werenski averaged seven more successful zone exits per 60 than his next closest peer, further evidence of the massive role he plays in the Jackets ability to navigate out of the defensive zone successfully. For this year, Werenski will be looking for a continuation of his hot start from the previous year and a clean bill of health.

Ivan Provorov – D

Provorov arrived in Columbus from Philadelphia via a three-team trade. Coming off of a season where his offensive numbers plummeted and he was embroiled in controversy around his vocal decisions to opt-out of team-based social causes, he’ll move to the Jacket’s where his responsibilities in deployment should drastically change. In Philadelphia, he was deployed and used as a number one overall defenseman and the results were, quite frankly, disastrous. Provorov tied a career low in goals (6) despite playing in all 82 games and seeing an increase in minutes. His offensive outputs regarding shot and chance creation dropped to the 29th percentile in the NHL among defensemen. Provorov also struggled defensively and exhibited a few steps back in his decision-making processes. One strength he will certainly bring to the Jacket’s defensive unit is a strong ability to retrieve pucks and get them to safety. He led the Flyers last season and in previous seasons for defensive zone retrievals per hour of even-strength ice time. Overall, a change of scenery was necessary for both player and team in the case of Provorov. With Columbus having a new look, revamped blue line, it may allow him to take on a more friendly deployment that re-centers his performances both offensively and defensively.

Damon Severson – D

Severson arrives in Columbus via a sign-and-trade deal that will keep him with the Blue Jackets for a total of eight years. Severson is expected to be paired on the top pairing alongside offensive defenseman Zach Werenski. This duo should have no issue moving the puck up ice as both defenders have developed a strong reputation for doing so. Per the All Three Zones data, Severson had the second highest average of zone exits with possession per hour of even-strength ice time among Devil defenders. His offensive impacts last season with regards to driving shots and scoring chances put him in an elite company. At even-strength last season, Severson controlled 60% of the expected goals while he was on the ice, a gaudy number that should have Jackets fans excited for his debut. Severson’s performance defensively, while unremarkable, is notably consistent and reliable. The biggest question for this season is how his performance will handle a stark increase in quality of competition. His minutes are sure to grow, and his responsibilities are sure to increase. His mobility and vision should aid him in navigating that new environment with few issues.

Andrew Peeke - D

Peeke once again eclipsed the 80-game mark for the second season in a row. He’s evolved into a one-way, stay-at-home style defenseman who posted extremely respectable results in defensive buckets last season. For instance, among Blue Jacket defenders with at least 500 minutes played, Peeke had the lowest expected-goals against per hour of even-strength hockey on the team. The issue for Peeke is that despite his performance defensively, he’s a detriment to offensive performance. The All Three Zones data reveals a lot of failed zone exits and entries that lead to a scoring chance. Peeke’s skating can be an issue in situations where the game quickly transitions from offensive to defense or vice versa. As a result of some of these limitations, only Erik Gudbranson posted worse puck-possession and expected-goal share numbers than Peeke’s 43 percent in both buckets. His time on ice leads to a lot of low event hockey, but a new potential partner along his flank could assist in some of the heavy lifting around zone exits and offensive contributions to help level out what he does defensively. While the discussion around Peeke’s ceiling as changed, he still has utility when deployed correctly.

Elvis Merzlikins - G

Few goaltenders have come onto the scene looking brighter – and with better fanfare – before falling as spectacularly from grace as Columbus Blue Jackets starter Elvis Merzlikins. Of all goaltenders in the NHL last season, no one struggled more than the Latvian netminder – who will turn 30 at the end of this upcoming season, making it harder and harder to imagine that his regression is something he can definitively bounce back from.

Merzlikins still boasts a lot of the characteristics in his game that made him so easy to root for when he first hit the ice in Columbus. He’s a lower-body powerhouse who plays using his skating and his edgework as a weapon, consistently capitalizing on needing less time to get from point A to point B than even the average NHL starter. He still has an arsenal of ‘fun’ saves to choose from that he’ll break out when fans least expect it, and he’s still capable of showcasing impressive depth management through stretches of mundane saves. That, when he was at the top of his game, set him apart from so many of the league’s other ‘athletic’ goaltenders; while he was capable of playing a fun and free-wheeling game, he could keep things under control in order to avoid being drawn away from his crease and opening up unnecessary holes. In theory, he has one of the best styles to plonk in net behind a transitioning Columbus roster – but even though he was able to deliver for his first few years in the league, he’s been an Achilles heel for Columbus for going on three seasons now and counting. Last year, his goals saved above expected was the worst in the entire NHL, his quality start percentage was below 30 percent, and he failed to record a shutout for the first time over a full season since he came to the NHL in 2019. It was more than just a smattering of really bad games that dragged his numbers down, too; he was only able to string together eight games with a save percentage above league average eight times all season. Game film makes it hard to figure out why, too; while his reads still looked good and his technique didn’t look like he was slipping, he just kept missing stops that he had gotten well into position for. It looked like a struggle defined in millimeters, making it that much harder to diagnose just why exactly he can’t put it all together anymore. That’s hardly a comfort for the Blue Jackets, who have to hope he’s able to finally return to his old form next year without throwing the younger Daniil Tarasov to the wolves as the team’s only clear-cut starting option. But without fellow tandem partner Joonas Korpisalo around anymore, maybe Merzlikins will finally be able to shake off the seemingly jinxed game he’s been playing for the last few years and reset his game as the team’s lone vet in net.

Projected starts: 50-55