The opening for last week’s article was about Minnesota, so that’s twice now that I featured a team right before the coach was fired (the other instance of that was Edmonton). With apologies to D.J. Smith, I do want to discuss the Senators.
Ottawa is in a tricky position. The Senators went through the rebuilding process, having three top-five picks in three years from 2018-20 (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson) followed by possessing the No. 10 selection in the 2021 NHL Draft (used on Tyler Boucher). Since then, they haven’t had a first-round pick, surrendering the 2022 selection to acquire Alex DeBrincat and their top pick in 2023 to get Jakob Chychrun. While they didn’t spend those picks on older players (and in the case of DeBrincat, they’re getting a first rounder back in the subsequent deal that shipped him to Detroit), it signaled that Ottawa is trying to move past the rebuilding phase.
It hasn’t worked out though. Ottawa was a middlingly 39-35-8 in 2022-23 and rather than take a step forward, the Senators are 9-10-0 this year. With Stutzle and Tkachuk having developed into star forwards while being backed by talented veterans Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa’s succeeded in troubling opposing goaltenders by scoring 3.32 goals per game, which puts the Senators in a four-way tie for ninth offensively.
Ottawa is also shaping up to be an amazing defensive team. In terms of expected goals against, the Senators rank second with 55.98. The Senators are an example of the reality of the NHL though: Even with a good offense and a strong defense, if your last line of defense is bad, then you’re still in trouble. Anton Forsberg has a 3.03 GAA and an .882 save percentage in eight contests this year. Joonas Korpisalo, who the Senators signed to a five-year, $20 million contract in the hopes that he’d stabilize their goaltending situation, has a 3.41 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 13 contests.
Things might be even worse than they look. Ottawa had 14 of its first 19 contests at home. That skewed schedule in the Senators’ favor will come back to haunt them from Dec. 14-Jan. 11 -- a stretch where they’ll play 11 of 14 contests on the road.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks have four games ahead of them this week. They’ll face the Predators on Tuesday, the Ducks on Thursday, the Blues on Saturday and the Capitals on Sunday. The Capitals are the toughest of those teams with a 12-7-2 while the rest of the squads have been middling at best this year.
Chicago acquired Anthony Beauvillier from Vancouver last Tuesday, but he’s missed two of Chicago’s last three games due to visa issues. The exception was Saturday’s contest because it was in Winnipeg. In that game, Beauvillier played on the top line with Connor Bedard and Philipp Kurashev. If that’s his role going forward, which seems likely, then the trade could provide him with a substantial boost to his fantasy value. As a member of the Canucks, he was averaging just 13:39 of ice time, which is part of the reason why he was limited to two goals and eight points. As a member of Chicago’s first line, Beauvillier could conceivably get 30-40 points over the final 60 contests.
The Blackhawks could certainly use the help that Beauvillier should provided. Over the last three games, Chicago has managed just three goals. Connor Bedard factored on all of them (one goal, two assists), bringing him up to 11 goals and 20 points in 23 contests this campaign. He’s the man Chicago was hoping for, but arguably obtaining a superstar is the easy part. For that, you just need to tank and then win the lottery, which isn’t exactly a high-skill maneuver. Building around that superstar post-tank is the hard part, and it will likely be years before we’ll know if the Blackhawks can succeed in that phase.
It would help if Lukas Reichel, who is a high-end prospect in his own right, got going. The 22-year-old was a healthy scratch Sunday after scoring two goals and six points over his first 22 contests this year. While being scratched obviously isn’t great, the silver lining is that it gives him a chance to reset and view the action from a different perspective. Maybe it will help in the long run.
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche have just three games this week, but they’re all home contests. They’ll start with the struggling Ducks on Tuesday (though it is worth noting Anaheim did manage to squeak away with a 4-3 shootout win over Colorado last Saturday) before facing Winnipeg on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday.
The Avalanche lost Cale Makar to a lower-body injury Saturday, and he missed Sunday’s game as a result. It remains to be seen how long he’ll be unavailable, but he’s the backbone of Colorado’s offense and defense, so losing him for any meaningful stretch of time would be a huge blow.
Sam Malinski drew into the lineup Sunday, logging 18:09 of ice time. He’s likely to remain in the lineup for as long as Makar is out. Malinski won’t come close to replacing the superstar’s offensive contributions, but Malinski does have three goals and nine points in 17 contests with AHL Colorado in 2023-24, so he might chip in a little. As far as the power play goes, Bowen Byram is likely to see time on the second unit while Devon Toews moves up to the top grouping, so both of their fantasy value will likely see a modest uptick in Makar’s absence.
Interestingly, rather than any of them, it was Josh Manson who factored in Sunday, scoring the Avalanche’s lone goal in a 4-1 loss to LA. Manson also registered an assist Saturday, so he’s at the start of what could be a hot streak, but it’s best to keep expectations low. After all, Manson has just three points in 21 contests this campaign, even after factoring in his recent production. He also has 32 PIM, 40 hits and 33 blocks, so he offers some additional utility if you did want to grab him in the hopes that his offensive run will last a little longer.
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit is set to play in Buffalo on Tuesday before heading home to face the Sharks on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. All three of those opponents are in the bottom third of the league’s standings, so the Red Wings are in a strong position to go on a winning streak.
Patrick Kane signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract with the Red Wings on Nov. 28, but he’s likely to miss at least the first two contests this week as he looks to get back up to speed after undergoing hip surgery in June. When he does return, Kane will likely play alongside his old Blackhawks linemate, Alex DeBrincat, along with Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line. That should be a very effective unit, and while there’s an element of risk to Kane coming off surgery, he has the potential to record 40-50 points over the remainder of the campaign.
Getting Kane into the lineup might push Joe Veleno, who has averaged 15:00 of ice time this year, out of a top-six role. It also could cost David Perron his spot on the first power-play unit and push Robby Fabbri out of a power-play role entirely.
In terms of which Red Wings might benefit from having Kane on the roster, outside of Larkin and DeBrincat, we also might see Michael Rasmussen enjoy an indirect boost. Kane’s addition frees up Lucas Raymond to bolster the second line, which should help Rasmussen.
Detroit’s power play already enjoys a 23.5 conversion rate, which is eighth in the league, but if Kane is able to make the first unit even more successful, then that will also help defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, whose production is closely tied to special teams.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings are on the road this week, but their first two contests are against struggling adversaries in Columbus on Tuesday and Montreal on Thursday. The Kings will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.
Los Angeles is also one of the hottest teams in the league, having won six of its last seven contests. Trevor Moore has played a big role in the Kings’ recent success, scoring five goals and eight points in that seven-game span to climb to 12 markers and 20 points in 21 outings this year. Meanwhile, Adrian Kempe has collected four assists over his last four contests, giving him eight goals and 22 points in 21 contests in 2023-24.
In net, Cam Talbot continues to get most of the workload and deservedly so. He has a 1.96 GAA and a .930 save percentage through 16 games. Backup Pheonix Copley has a far uglier 3.04 GAA and .868 save percentage in six outings, but he’s won his last two starts while saving 48 of 49 shots (.980 save percentage) over that span. Copley will likely have an opportunity to extend that run against either the Islanders or the Rangers this weekend.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens will host the Kraken on Monday and the Kings on Thursday. Then the Canadiens will travel to Buffalo on Saturday before returning to Montreal to host the Predators on Sunday. It’s a busy week, and the Kings are a tough opponent, but Nashville, Buffalo and Seattle all have sub-.500 records.
Goaltender Jake Allen has a 3.74 GAA and an .898 save percentage in 10 contests this season, and he’s done particularly bad lately, posting a 4.63 GAA and an .871 save percentage over his last six outings. Cayden Primeau hasn’t done any better with a 4.24 GAA and an .875 save percentage over his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Sam Montembeault to run away with the starting gig.
Montembeault has a 5-3-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .910 save percentage in 10 contests this campaign and has won his last two starts while saving 56 of 61 shots (.918 save percentage) over that span. The Canadiens also made a three-year, $9.45 million commitment to the 27-year-old goaltender Friday, which further increases the chances of him claiming that top spot.
In terms of hot players offensively, blueliner Gustav Lindstrom has scored two goals over his last three contests. He’s not someone you should expect a lot of productivity from -- over 139 career games, he has just 29 points -- but he’s clicking at the moment. Joel Armia also has two goals over his last three outings and importantly has averaged 15:35 of ice time over that stretch, up from 12:38 over his previous six games with Montreal.
Seattle Kraken
Seattle lost four straight contests to drop to 8-11-6 this campaign. The pressure is on the Kraken to turn things around this week, especially with a slate of home games on the horizon. First, they’ll play in Montreal on Monday, but then the Kraken will host the Devils on Thursday, the Lightning on Saturday and the Wild on Sunday.
The Kraken have scored just seven goals over their last four games, but Tye Kartye has been an outlier over that stretch with two goals and three points. The 22-year-old rookie still has just four goals and eight points through 24 outings this campaign, but he might be getting more comfortable as the year progresses. He certainly showed offensive upside in the 2022-23 campaign, supplying 28 goals and 57 points in 72 AHL outings. You can try taking a chance on him while he’s hot in the hope that his recent success might lead to something more. If nothing else, he’s a decent source of PIM and hits, having 25 and 43, respectively, this year.
Jared McCann has also provided two goals and three points over that four-game stretch, bringing him up to 11 markers and 16 points in 25 outings this year. However, that’s still well behind his pace from 2022-23 when he finished with 40 goals and 70 points. Rather than replicate his production from last year, McCann is more likely to finish with around 50-55 points, falling more in line with his 2021-22 showing.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay was expecting the return of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to bolster the team, but instead, the Lightning have lost four straight games. To be fair, Tampa Bay has provided just five goals during its losing streak, so Vasilevskiy hasn’t gotten sufficient support, but the netminder also has a 3.87 GAA and an .859 save percentage through four starts. Perhaps it’s hard for him to find his rhythm after missing the start of the campaign with a back injury.
The Lightning will attempt to right the ship this week with home games against the Stars on Monday and the Penguins on Wednesday, followed by a road trip taking them to Nashville on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday.
I do expect Vasilevskiy to settle in as the campaign goes on, so this might be a good time to explore the possibility of acquiring him at a discounted price. After missing so much time and struggling so badly out of the gate, some fantasy managers might be frustrated enough to move him.
In terms of hot players, Nikita Kucherov is basically all the Lightning have at the moment. He’s managed to assist on all five of the Lightning’s markers over the last four games, propelling him to 15 goals and 40 points through 24 contests this year.
Victor Hedman has also done well with a goal and three points over his last four outings. If you’re lucky enough to have the blueliner on your fantasy team, you’ve been treated to consistent production – he hasn’t had a scoring drought longer than two outings this year.
Beyond those two, though, no Tampa Bay player has recorded more than a point over the last four games. If there’s a silver lining among that group, it’s Tanner Jeannot, who has at least been productive in other ways. In addition to scoring a power-play goal over that four-contest stretch, he’s also recorded 15 PIM and 18 hits.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights hit a rough patch from Nov. 5-28 in which they posted a 3-5-3 record, but that seems to be behind them after earning back-to-back 4-1 victories against Vancouver and Washington, respectively. They’ll attempt to build on that with their home-and-away series against St. Louis on Monday and Wednesday. Following those contests, the Golden Knights will play in Dallas on Saturday and host the Sharks on Sunday.
We just covered Seattle and Tampa Bay, which had somewhat slim pickings when it came to hot players, but that’s not the case with Vegas. Four Golden Knights forwards have recorded at least three points over the last three contests: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Michael Amadio and Ivan Barbashev.
Of them, Amadio and Barbashev might be obtainable in fantasy leagues if you’re looking for someone to provide you with a short-term boost. Barbashev would be a particularly interesting option since he spent his first 410 career NHL games with St. Louis before being dealt to Vegas in February, so he might play with a little extra during the upcoming two contests.
It’s also worth noting that Adin Hill sustained a lower-body injury Thursday and missed Saturday’s contest as a result. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but if he doesn’t return by the weekend, then Jiri Patera might get a start, perhaps versus San Jose. Patera isn’t having a great campaign with a 3.17 GAA and a .900 save percentage in 14 appearances with AHL Henderson, but he did post a 2.50 GAA and a .929 save percentage in two outings with Vegas last season, and the Sharks are a favorable opponent, so if it looks like he’ll get the start for that game then you should consider Patera as a situational pickup.