Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Connor McMichael steps forward in Washington, Brandt Clarke is making the most of his opportunity in Los Angeles, William Karlsson returns to the Vegas lineup, Cole Sillinger is responding on Columbus’ top line, and much more!
Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:
#1 It has been a very gradual progression for Washington Capitals 2019 first-round pick Connor McMichael, who had a career-high 33 points (18 G, 15 A) last season. Early in this season, McMichael has taken his game to a new level, though, putting up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 27 shots on goal in the first 10 games. He does have higher percentages working in his favor, but the increasing shot rate is encouraging, and McMichael is finding his groove on Washington’s second line with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson, in addition to getting second unit power play time.
#2 When Drew Doughty was injured in the preseason, there was some debate over whether Brandt Clarke or Jordan Spence would reap the rewards of extra ice time in Doughty’s absence. There isn’t much debate anymore, as Clarke has produced 11 points (1 G, 10 A) in 11 games, with five of those points coming via the power play. He is only playing a little more than 18 minutes per game, so it’s not like the Kings are force-feeding Clarke minutes, but they are allowing him to play to his considerable puck-moving strengths.
#3 Vegas Golden Knights centre William Karlsson missed the first eight games of the season due to injury but provided an immediate jolt to the lineup upon his return. In his first three games, Karlsson contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) and eight shots on goal, skating on a line with Tanner Pearson and Alexander Holtz. Karlsson does not necessarily get a prime role on the power play and with Tomas Hertl and Jack Eichel also skating at centre for Vegas, there are some limits to what Karlsson can do at even strength, but he had 30 goals and 60 points in 70 games last season, so it’s fair to expect Wild Bill to fulfill a significant offensive role.
#4 While there have been ups and downs in the career of Cole Sillinger, the 12th pick in the 2021 Draft by the Columbus Blue Jackets, he is making the most of the opportunity he is getting in Columbus this season. Sillinger is skating on Columbus’ top line with Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko, contributing eight points (2 G, 6 A) with 20 shots on goal in nine games. He is also averaging a career-high 18 minutes of ice time per game, so there is a real chance for Sillinger to play in a scoring role for as long as he continues to produce.
#5 Veteran Dallas Stars forward Tyler Seguin has missed a couple of games with a lower-body injury, but has delivered eight points (4 G, 4 A) in six games. Tread carefully with the 32-year-old, however, as Seguin has managed just eight shots on goal and is only averaging 15:47 of ice time per game, his lowest average since his rookie season in 2010-2011.
#6 A late bloomer who scored a career-best 37 points (14 G, 23 A) as a 30-year-old last season, New Jersey Devils right winger Stefan Noesen has handled a bigger role in his return to New Jersey. Noesen is averaging more than 14 minutes per game for the first time in his NHL career, and he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 20 shots on goal in 13 games. That shot volume is a little concerning and Noesen has been riding favorable percentages, but he has also landed a spot on the Devils’ top power play and four of his 12 points have come via the man advantage, so he offers some deep league appeal.
#7 There may be a ceiling to what Buffalo Sabres defenceman Owen Power can produce offensively, because Rasmus Dahlin is the locked-in quarterback on Buffalo’s top power play unit, but Power is currently riding a five-game point streak during which he has seven even-strength points (1 G, 6 A) and nine shots on goal. The first pick in the 2021 Draft, Power has had a couple of quality seasons, but if he can contribute more offensively, that will both improve the outlook for both him individually and the Sabres as a team.
#8 Coming into the season, 24-year-old Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev had contributed 33 points (20 G, 13 A) in 67 career games, which provided a decent indication that he could be a viable option to provide secondary scoring. He has stepped up in his past five games, delivering seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal. Half of Dorofeyev’s six goals this season have come on the power play, but he has been able to generate offense at five-on-five and that is what gives him a chance to keep earning a bigger role.
#9 When the Anaheim Ducks lost goaltender John Gibson to appendicitis late in the preseason, that thrust goaltender Lukas Dostal into the starter’s role and the 24-year-old netminder has risen to the challenge. In eight starts, Dostal has a .945 save percentage and he already has 14.01 Goals Saved Above Expected, the best mark in the league. With trade rumours swirling around Gibson, Dostal’s play could make it easier for the Ducks to pull the trigger on a deal.
#10 Another late bloomer, 29-year-old Vancouver Canucks winger Kiefer Sherwood had a career-high 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 68 games, earning a free agent contract with the Canucks. Sherwood has started his Vancouver career with five points (2 G, 3 A) in nine games, but for fantasy managers, it’s the hits that make the difference. Sherwood has an astonishing 64 hits in nine games, which would prorate to 583 hits over a full season, an absurd number. Sherwood has enjoyed success skating on a line with Danton Heinen and Teddy Blueger and looks like he is well on his way to the best season of his career.
#11 A few weeks ago, Colorado Avalanche forward Ross Colton was a top-tier pickup after moving to left wing on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Then he managed to survive potential injury at Utah only to suffer a broken foot two games later against Chicago. This will keep him out for 6-8 weeks. As a result, rookie Nikolai Kovalenko moves up the depth chart to skate on the top line in Colorado. Kovalenko has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 12 shots on goal in 11 games, so it is a big jump to move to that line. He has also hit the net on just 12 of 29 shot attempts, 41.4 percent, compared to Colton, who has 37 shots on goal in 60 shot attempts, 61.7 percent. Maybe playing with the superstars will give Kovalenko better quality chances and he will hit the net more frequently.
#12 Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen was off to an excellent start this season, posting a .941 save percentage in four starts, but he is hurt now, considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury. That should mean more consistent starts for Pyotr Kochetkov, the 25-year-old netminder who has won four of five starts, but has a .891 save percentage.
#13 Although he had a rough game against Toronto in Winnipeg’s only loss this season, on the ice for all six Maple Leafs goals, Jets defenseman Neal Pionk is otherwise off to an outstanding start this season, producing 12 points (3 G, 9 A) with 25 shots on goal in 10 games. Pionk also has 16 blocked shots and 13 hits, so he is filling categories across the board, making him more valuable than ever.
#14 It was a surprise that the San Jose Sharks landed defenseman Jake Walman from the Detroit Red Wings in the offseason, but it has provided him a bigger opportunity and he has responded with more production. Walman is playing 22:53 per game, up more than three minutes per game from last season, and he has contributed nine points (1 G, 8 A) and 32 shots on goal in a dozen games. He moves the puck in the right direction when he is on the ice, which is not commonplace among the Sharks, and he is getting first unit power play time, though he has just one power play point.
#15 Second-year New York Rangers left winger Will Cuylle showed some promise as a rookie, particularly with his tendency to hit and hit a lot, but he is bringing enough offense early in the season to make himself fantasy relevant. Cuylle has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 18 shots on goal in nine games, but he also has 39 hits. Playing on a thriving third line with Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko, as well as delivering more than four hits per game makes Cuylle more appealing in most leagues, but especially in banger leagues in which those hits are rewarded.
#16 San Jose Sharks right winger Fabian Zetterlund broke through last season with career highs of 24 goals and 44 points, taking advantage of the bigger role afforded to him after he had been acquired from New Jersey. Even with his ice time down a couple of minutes per game, Zetterlund is off to a strong start with eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 28 shots on goal in 12 games. He is thriving in a complementary role, skating on a line with Alex Wennberg and rookie Danil Guschin, in addition to getting second unit power play time.
#17 When Thatcher Demko was deemed not to be ready to start the season in net for the Vancouver Canucks, they signed Kevin Lankinen to give them a steady veteran to play alongside rookie Arturs Silovs. Lankinen has excelled in the role, earning six starts, and has a .920 save percentage, making him the better option between the pipes for Vancouver. Presumably, Demko should return to action at some point this season but, in the meantime, Lankinen is a viable option. He has never started more than the 37 games that he started as a rookie, but Lankinen has been an above-average backup for the past couple of seasons and has probably reached the point at which he is capable of handling more responsibility than he had previously. At least in the short term, it makes him a valuable addition for the Canucks.
#18 He has been held off the scoresheet for three straight games, but Washington Capitals centre Pierre-Luc Dubois might be worth considering as a buy-low option. He has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games, with just one goal on 19 shots on goal. He has never scored on less than 11.0 percent of his shots on goal, so it would be highly unlikely that Dubois continues to linger around 5.3 percent, where he currently sits. After a disastrous 2023-2024 season in Los Angeles, Dubois’ value is relatively low and his lack of goal production early in this season only deepens that perception, but that is why he could very well provide value as an addition from the fantasy waiver wire.
#19 When seeking out potential buy-low options, one place to look is for players who are underperforming their rate of individual expected goals. Expected goals try to incorporate some measure of shot quality, so that we have some idea about the quality of chances that they are receiving. The forwards whose expected goals are exceeding their actual goal production include Zach Hyman (-4.79), Dubois (-3.79), Dylan Cozens (-3.46), Steven Stamkos (-3.45), Michael Bunting (-3.42), Cutter Gauthier (-3.14), William Eklund (-2.99), Morgan Frost (-2.98), Brad Marchand (-2.95), and Auston Matthews (-2.89). Some of these players are off to very slow starts, but they are clearly generating scoring chances, so all hope is not lost.
#20 At the other end of the spectrum are players that are exceeding their expected goals. Great finishers will typically score more than the average player given the same number and quality of chances, but these players also need to be monitored as they might be beneficiaries of unsustainably good luck early in the season. The forwards that have most exceeded their expected goals this season include Cole Caufield (+5.65), Kyle Connor (+5.63), Leon Draisaitl (+4.59), Nikita Kucherov (+4.33), Tage Thompson (+4.06), Sam Bennett (+4.06), Sam Reinhart (+3.67), Claude Giroux (+3.53), Ryan Donato (+3.53), and Ivan Barbashev (+3.26).
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.