2018 NHL Draft Review: Pacific Division

The draft is over and 217 young players are newly affiliated with 31 different NHL organizations. Outside of three to six of those players, who could jump right into NHL lineups in the fall, we will not know whether the vast majority of those players are draft successes for two, three, four, or five years.

The lack of clear foresight aside, we should still be able to judge draft classes at least in terms of expected value. In some cases, we can look at strategy as well, although the way the board shakes out based on the picks that came before, we can rarely truly discern what a club was trying to do, but only what they were able to do.

I had hoped that we would be able to provide an average Overall Future Projection of the various draft classes, but there are a few picks from the high school ranks, the NAHL and a few European junior leagues for whom we lack enough information to give a full grade, so we will focus on where we had players ranked as we assess the draft haul of each team, as we run division-by-division through the NHL.

Here is the Pacific Division

Anaheim Ducks

Two Euros, two from the Q, and three who spent a significant portion of their draft year in the USHL. One thing that we can say without hesitation is that the Ducks did not go out of their way to draft blueliners, nor did they make a point of reaching on younger, more projectable players. In fact, the opposite is true on the latter point. Lundestrom, their first rounder, has a late ’99 birthdate, while their last two selections were both born in 1998.

With only three netminders under the age of 26 in the system prior to draft day, one of whom is seemingly stalling out in the NCAA ranks, it makes sense that the team would seek to fortify that area. Goaltenders are notoriously tough to forecast, but we certainly liked Dostal, ranking him tops among all netminders eligible for the 2018 draft. Durny was more of a wildcard, spending the first half of his year with the Slovakia U20 team and coming over to play for Des Moines in the USHL after a promising showing at the WJC. He remained strong with the Buccaneers after coming stateside.

With their first two picks, the Ducks went with 200 foot centers with mature games. While neither projects as a first liner in the future, both could grow up to fill the middle six pivot roles. Blake McLaughlin is a personal favorite. In his first full USHL season, he was fantastic with the Steel in the early going, before hitting a rut around the same time that his team underwent a coaching change near mid-season. His playmaking chops are very impressive. Jackson Perbix, whose older brother Nick is a Colorado pick, was one of the younger players eligible and excelled with his high school team before struggling to make an impact in the USHL with Green Bay. He is raw, but is a good skater and has promising puck skills. After ignoring defensemen with their first six picks, the Ducks selected Hunter Drew, a second year eligible blueliners from the Charlottetown Islanders in the sixth round. He has a decent shot and plays a physical brand of hockey, but his selection raised eyebrows. Overall, the Ducks got strong value with their first four picks, with three potential top nine forwards and getting one of the better goalies in the draft class. As we can endorse two of the last three picks as worthwhile gambles makes this a strong all-around influx to the Anaheim organization.

OFP – 53.25

Arizona Coyotes

Like Anaheim, the Arizona Coyotes added two netminders to the team in the 2018 draft. Unlike the Ducks, the Coyotes came away with greater positional balance in their draft haul. On top of their two new netminders, Arizona drafted four defenders, one center, one left winger and one right winger. Perhaps coincidentally, Coyotes draft picks skewed towards the younger end of the class, at least among position players. Six of the seven skaters were born in 2000 (both goalies had ’99 birthdates) and Jan Jenik was born on the last day of eligibility for the 2018 draft class.  It is feasible to assume that the more projectable players somewhat offsets the fact that the team did not draft anyone who was widely considered to have any elite characteristics among their essential scouting attributes. Even fifth overall pick Barrett Hayton was largely thought of as offering better value in the 10-15 range than as a top five player. He is certainly skilled and his upside may have been masked somewhat by playing a third line role for much of the season with the powerhouse Greyhounds. He does everything at an above average level, but did not consistently show anything truly high end. Those who really like him see a second line player, but clearly Arizona sees some first line potential.

Looking at the other forwards, Jenik was sometimes overmatched playing with adults in the second Czech league. He has good hands, and showed promising playmaking touch at the WU18s, but needs to show more ability to drive the offense to truly profile as having top six potential. Their last forward taken, Liam Kirk, is one of the big wild card of the draft, as one of the only players drafted out of the British league in NHL draft history. Both he and Jenik are posed to move to the OHL next year, to Peterborough and Flint, respectively. The four defensemen selected by Arizona are also lacking in ceiling, although second rounder Kevin Bahl is so tall, it is too ironic to consider a low ceiling player. To have taken him as high as they did, the Coyotes must believe his showings in the Top Prospect Game and the WU18s are more indicative of what he might become than his regular season production with the 67s was.

Ty Emberson lacks great offensive game, but is one of the bigger hitters in the draft class. Michael Callahan is pretty much a stay at home, first pass defender. Like Liam Kirk, the last blueliner taken by Arizona, Dennis Busby, is a wild card. As injuries limited him to a mere two games this season, they are banking on previous displays carrying through to his return to health. Of the two goalies selected, Ivan Prosvetov was a second year eligible netminder, who had some big games for Youngstown in the USHL as he carried the club to the Clark Cup finals. Davide Tendeck was one of the few first time eligible goalies to see regular action in the WHL and was consistently strong for Vancouver. On the whole, the Coyotes picked up a lot of solid prospects, but they mostly look like role players going forward. On the heels of last year’s defense-heavy class, including Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Michael Karow, Filip Westerlund, and others, I sense a trend. Hayton could clearly be much better than that, but taking him fifth overall, considerably higher than expectations, means that the Coyotes are staking their scouting reputation on his hidden upside and that all eyes will be on his development.

OFP – 52.75

Calgary Flames

Five forwards. None that you would want to write about to your mother in a postcard from Dallas. Calgary surrendered its first two picks to the Islanders in the Travis Hamonic trade while the third rounder moved to Arizona as part of the Mike Smith package. They did not pick until the fourth round, the 30^th of 31 teams to get to test their microphones in anger. In fairness to the Calgary scouting staff, after 100 picks are off the board, you can only get what you can. The differences between players at that point is relatively minimal. That said, to use that first pick on a player like Martin Pospisil is head-scratching, to be polite. With a player like that, one would think Brian Burke’s truculent ideal was still the order of the day. Pospisil is nothing if not a dirty player. His 253 penalty minutes for Sioux City led the USHL by 77 over the runner up. Demetrious Koumontzis is an intriguing player, who flashed nice offensive tools in the Minnesota high ranks but has only appeared in one game at a higher level. He will be tested with Arizona State next season.

Milos Roman generated interest in the first half with Vancouver and had his moments with Slovakia at the WJC, but missed much of the second half with a high ankle sprain. A healthy season could make this pick look like a value find down the road. Mathias Emilio Pettersen was the only player of Norwegian origin selected this year. He was a good middle six player at the USHL level, so his ceiling is suitably limited, but he is not without his merits. Finally, the Flames saved their home run swing for the end, taking the prototypical enigmatic Russian in Dmitri Zavgorodny. He was stellar at the Ivan Hlinka (10 points in five games) but struggled for long stretches during the regular season in the ‘Q’. If there is an interesting note about the Flames’ picks this year is that they went hard on players taking the college route after largely ignoring that class in recent years. Also, and this last point must be a coincidence, even though all five forwards were selected from North American programs, four of them crossed the pond as import players, with only the high schooler Koumontzos being North American by birth. There  is not much upside in this draft class, nor much variety.

OFP -  50.25

Edmonton Oilers

Like their provincial rivals in Calgary, the Oilers only made five selections on draft day. Unlike the Flames, the Oilers made them count. That is the difference between not picking until the fourth round and making three selections in the first two rounds. After being heavily rumored to be trying to trade up, when certain picks in the top ten played out as they did (I’m looking at you, Arizona), Edmonton stuck with their appointed tenth overall pick and snapped up Evan Bouchard, a natural puck moving defenseman who more than makes up in puck skills and IQ what he lacks in skating (he doesn’t really lack skating, although his wheels are not dynamic). He is perhaps one more season dominating the OHL away from claiming a spot on the Edmonton blueliner. The Oilers were opportunistic again in the second round, with Ryan McLeod falling into their laps even as many saw him as a probably first rounder going into the season and throughout his draft season. Like his older brother, New Jersey prospect Mikey, Ryan McLeod is a fantastic skater with a strong hockey mind, but may not be the most creative.

Later in the second, the Oilers added to their growing collection of talented young puck stoppers with Drummondville’s Olivier Rodrigue the second ranked goalie by our projections. He is mildly undersized by modern netminding standards, but has proven his ability to be a workhorse and succeed. After sitting out for three rounds and change, the Oilers took a flyer on New Hampshire prepster Michael Kesselring, a lanky blueliner who defends well and seems to be able to move the puck. He is expected to spend this coming season in the USHL with Des Moines, before attending Merrimack. They ended their draft class with a foray into Europe, taking winger Patrik Siikanen from the Junior ranks. Although he has limited international experience, Siikanen’s boosters appreciate his offensive tools, seeing an above average shot and strong puck skills. He needs to improve his skating to have a chance in North America. With only five picks, the Oilers seem to have done well to get three players with high end upside. Even their two flyers have reasons for optimism.

OFP – 53.75

Los Angeles Kings

Who needs wingers? Who needs defensemen? Apparently, the LA Kings did not, at least not on draft day. Of their seen selections, two are netminders (another odd trend so far in the Pacific Division) and the other five all are listed at least dually as centers. Unlike some teams, who we feel may have reached to draft centers where they did, the Kings got some pretty good value in getting both Rasmus Kupari and Akil Thomas where they did. We had both players ranked as first round talents, with Kupari bringing near-elite skating speed to the game along with tools that grade out as average to above elsewhere across the board. Thomas is a very good skater, too (although not as blinding as Kupari) and plays a more cerebral, playmaking, responsible game. His style, which has the optics of lacking in intensity, may have allowed him to drop as far as he did. We were not as high on Shafigullin as some, but his production in the Russian junior leagues was undeniably impressive and his tool collection can shine. His decision making may hold him back for a while, but there is home run potential, provided patience. That said, if we could quibble about that pick, we wholeheartedly support the taking of the undersized Aidan Dudas in the fourth round. A 5-7”, 165 offensive force, he may not be Alex DeBrincat redux, but he is as close as we are going to get in this draft class. He also serves as another point of evidence that the Kings under Rob Blake are different that the Kings under Dean Lombardi.

The final forward selected, Johan Sodergran, has the biggest frame of any of their skating picks and his physical game is his most advanced characteristic, but his production in the Swedish top junior league (SuperElit) was impressive enough and Linkoping played him for a good chunk of the season in the SHL as well. His upside is lowest among their forwards selected, but he has a reasonable floor to bank on. Moving to the goalies, the first one chosen, David Hrenak, has a fair bit of international experience under his belt with Slovakia and spent last year – his second of draft eligibility – playing with the Kings’ favorite NCAA program, at St. Cloud State. Other prospects, current and recent in the Kings’ organization who spent their college years playing for the Huskies include Jonny Brodzinski, Mikey Eyssimont, Kevin Gravel, and Nic Dowd. Hrenak is an even-keeled netminder who does a good job of limiting second chances. The final goalie selected, Jacob Ingham, saw his stock drop precipitously over his draft year, as his save percentage dropped from .907 in 2016-17 to a very disappointing .880 this year. On the other hand, he is very big and has all the tools, so while he is a gamble, in a major sense, all goalies are. We could knock the Kings a touch for eschewing defensemen altogether in their draft class, but would prefer to applaud their approach in drafting for upside. I am not completely on board with taking two netminders, but there was a clear organizational lack going into the draft, and as both were late round picks, the risk is at least mitigated.

OFP – 53.75

San Jose Sharks

To mix metaphors horribly here, the San Jose Sharks swung for the fences on day one of the 2018 draft, ultimately hitting a double, and then spent day two trying to bunt the baserunner over. As far as skilled are concerned, Ryan Merkley is much better than his slot in either our rankings (31) or even where he was selected by the Sharks (21). He is a fantastic skater and puck mover, the epitome of the modern defensive quarterback. His game away from the puck is raw enough that he might not project as a first pairing blueliner, but he could be a strong #3 if paired up with a more responsible type. He could also manage the power play. The reason he was ranked where he was and was drafted where he was, was due to persistent questions about his maturity and commitment to playing a team game. Late interviews with Merkley, including one with our own Scott Crawford (embed link here: https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-scouting-combine-2018-notes-results/), indicate that he understands the concern and is eager to put in the effort to put it in the past. The Sharks believe that he can.

After sitting out the second round, the Sharks took a bet on the two way game of Swedish teenager Linus Karlsson, who despite putting up fantastic numbers in the SuperElit, projects as a middle six, 200 foot center at maturity. Fourth rounder Jasper Weatherby is an intriguing late bloomer. In his first year of draft eligibility, the Oregon native was playing AAA 18U hockey in the Omaha area. In his second year of eligibility, the big forward moved to the BCHL and held his own with Wenatchee in a depth role. In his third year of eligibility, he committed to North Dakota, led the BCHL in scoring, helped the Wild to the BCHL and RBC Cup championships and heard his name called in the fourth round by San Jose. Zacharie Emond was the backup goalie for Rouyn-Noranda in the QMJHL and struggled throughout the season. He has good size and hints at technique, but we remain skeptical. Finally, the Sharks drafted another third year eligible forward in John Leonard of the Mass-Amherst Minutemen. Leonard was a solid (not standout) player in two years with Green Bay in the USHL, but seemed to blossom as a freshman, leading his team in scoring. He has a solid shot. If Merkley pans out, it will not matter at all how the other four do. If Merkley cannot find the maturity, on and off the ice, that he needs, the Sharks might find themselves shut out from this draft class.

OFP – 49.75

Vancouver Canucks

The Vancouver Canucks would be wise to allow Quinn Hughes one more ear to develop with the Michigan Wolverines, but they have just drafted a future first pairing defending with immense offensive upside and an overall dynamic game. He is a pleasure to watch skate and manage the puck. From the WJC to the end of the season, Hughes improved his game as much as any draft eligible prospect. He will never be a big, muscular defender, but he has enough strength and understanding of positioning to make do. With their second rounder, the Canucks took a player whose skillset is nearly an exact inverse to that of Hughes, at least style-wise. Where Hughes is the epitome of the modern day defender, Woo is a throw-back. While he can handle the puck well enough, he sticks out for his physical style away from the puck. A little Yin, a little Yang. He might have been a first rounder had he not dealt with some long term injuries this season. In third rounder Tyler Madden, the Canucks get another player who is as valuable off the puck as he is on. Unlike Woo, though, Madden is a forward, like his father, Selke Winner John Madden. He is small and slight, but skates well and has a very advanced hockey mind.

In the fifth and sixth rounds, the Canucks continued to eschew size. Utunen, from Finland, is listed at 5-11”, 170, and Russian forward Manukyan is listed at 5-7”, 139. Utunen lacks anything above average in the way of his skills, but reads the game very well and makes up for his shortcomings with high hockey IQ. Manukyan, as noted, is tiny, but he is shifty, and spent half of this season, his third of draft eligibility, playing in the KHL. Looking at the five skaters as a group, Woo, listed at 6-0”, 201 is the only skater from the Vancouver draft class whose height starts with a “6” or whose weight starts with a “2”. For an organization with a reputation for building for toughness at the NHL level, it is interesting to see them going with skill over size with their amateur scouts. Finally, the Canucks tabbed netminder Matthew Thiessen with their last pick, after a very impressive showing with Steinbach at the RBC Cup. He is a relatively athletic goaltender, he reads the play well and plays a composed game. He will move to Dubuque of the USHL next season before attending the University of Maine beginning in the 2019-20 season. All told, the Canucks added a lot of strong pieces to their organization. Their emphasis on skill bodes well for the future of the team.

OFP – 53.5

Vegas Golden Knights

With both their first and third round draft picks sent to Detroit in the Tomas Tatar trade, the expansion Golden Knights (this should be the last time they are referred to as an “expansion” team) had only one pick in the first three rounds. As a direct consequence, they were severely limited in the upside of the players available to them in Dallas. Accordingly, they struck upon a tactic of drafting less from the CHL then they had in their first draft. After taking six players from the Canadian Junior ranks last year, only three of the Golden Knights’ eight picks this year were CHLers. That would usually mean a European heavy sled, but in Vegas’ case this year, they went heavy on the NCAA route, selecting one current collegian and three who should get there within a year or two. All told, the Golden Knights will have three or more years to decide on most of their 2018 draft class, and that is not a bad thing.

Their first pick, Ivan Morozov, had a strong season with the Mamonty Yugry junior team in the MHL, and is the type of player who lacks weaknesses, but also lacks any one standout area to his game. In May he was dealt to the powerhouse SKA St. Petersburg organization and we are a few years away from learning if he has upside potential beyond decent middle six forward. While their next pick, Slava Demin, also has a Russian name and heritage, Demin was actually born and raised in California, and spent the last two years developing with Wenatchee in the BCHL. He has a strong point shot and plays a relatively physical game. The level of competition he will see at the University of Denver will be a good test for him. Keeping it collegiate, both of their next two picks will also be in the NCAA next season. Paul Cotter is a high energy scoring type who will be moving from Lincoln in the USHL to Western Michigan where he might have to prove he can contribute to his team even if he is not playing a top six role, while Brandon Kruse is returning to Bowling Green State for his sophomore season. He did not garner much attention in his first year of eligibility playing in the NAHL, but he earned a selection as an all-rookie player in the WCHA thanks to his playmaking acumen and may be a late bloomer, even if he has yet to fill out his smallish frame.

The Golden Knights finally went to the CHL with their late fifth round pick, taking a low ceiling blueliner in Connor Corcoran, a player who watched the Windsor Spitfires win the Memorial Cup from the press box, but took on a regular role this year and is a plus skater, if none of his other attributes grade out more than average. With an August 2000 birth date, he may yet have untapped upside. Of their two sixth rounders, New England prep school blueliner Peter Diliberatore was not really on our radar, but the undersized Quinnipiac commit has great nickname potential with that last name. Their other sixth rounder was squarely on our radar and is the top value selection made by Vegas in this draft class. Xavier Bouchard will never play on the power play as a pro, but between his high hockey IQ, plus size, and his strong physical game, he has an NHL ceiling, which is pretty good in and of itself in this sixth round. To wrap up their second draft class, the Golden Knights added a netminder (after coming away with three in their inaugural draft). Jordan Kooy was the backup for the London Knights last year, but may have the inside track on the starting job for 2018-19. He has solid athleticism and his technical game is relatively mature. Although there are no high end players in this draft class along the lines of the Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki, Erik Brannstrom trio from last year, the Golden Knights should be satisfied that they left Dallas with a lot of player who have NHL upside.

OFP – 51.5