I don’t particularly enjoy writing depressing articles, but a review of the Colorado Avalanche system is exactly that; depressing. Of course, even the worst of systems has a few promising pieces, but most other systems have intriguing depth after the top few guys. The mile high franchise lacks that. Before examining what they do have, we should take a moment and raise a glass to remember some of the potential depth recently dealt away:
- C Colin Smith, a development success story, was traded to Toronto in exchange for winger Shawn Matthias. Smith may not even be a top 20 guy with the Leafs, but he would have had a great argument for being in Colorado’s top 10 with a nice blend of offensive skills.
- D Kyle Wood, a third round pick having a strong third season with North Bay of the OHL. Blessed with prototypical size and strong puck moving skills, the Coyotes were quick to offer him an ELC.
- C Conner Bleackley, a former first rounder whose development has stagnated with Red Deer of the WHL. There were rumors that head coach Patrick Roy was not a fan and that his selection may have played a role in the dismissal of former director of amateur scouting Rick Pracey. Further, the Avalanche were said to be considering not signing him, preferring at this point to take a 2016 second rounder instead of Bleackley. Traded with Wood to Arizona for the last two months of Mikkel Boedker’s contract, the Coyotes may also take that route.
OK, what’s left?
Winger Mikko Rantanen, taken tenth overall last June, began his first post draft season in the NHL. In spite of crazy physical tools, he was not ready. He played in the first six games for Colorado, getting between 7:24 and 10:44 of ice time per game, and outside of a four shot outburst against Anaheim, did nothing much. Making the smart decision to allow the Finnish teenager to learn his craft in the AHL, he was demoted to San Antonio. How good was he? Among players to have played at least 40 AHL games this year, only two have more points per game than Rantanen’s 1.18, a product of 22 goals and 31 assists in 45 games. Among AHL teenagers, no one has come particularly close to his 53 points. Even if we remove the filters for age (not that many under 20 in the AHL anyway) or points per game, the first year pro is tenth league-wide in scoring without any caveats. He leads the Rampage in goals, assists, points and +/-, in most cases by wide margins. Among semi-regular teammates, only two have averaged more shots on net per game. 15 teammates, on the other hand, have played in more games than Rantanen, who besides his stints in Colorado, took some time off around Christmas to travel to Sweden. In case you were not paying attention, or have forgotten, he was a key player on the Gold Medal winning Finland WJC squad.
OK, so he is accomplished. How does he do it, you might be asking. As noted earlier, Rantanen is very large, standing at 6-4” and with broad shoulders. His speed is exceptional for a player of his size and well above average at any size. When he gets to the outside of coverage, he can attain a second gear and drive the net with his defender now playing catch-up. His large frame causes his to occasionally look as if he was swaying as he strode, but his skating needs to be respected. The shot is another weapon, or rather, set of weapons, depending on how far he is from the net when shooting. His trigger is quick and potent, as he can time a bouncing puck even when under pressure. The shots are powerful and accurate as well. As befitting a player of his girth, he can be a bull on the puck, as well as once on his stick, it is very difficult to separate the two. What is sometimes surprising is that he has a very soft touch as well. He can create moves for one-on-one situations and dance with the puck to shake a defender or better position himself to address a shooting lane and/or use the defender as a natural screen. He is also a gifted passer, willing and able to find hidden teammates. While +/- is generally a very poor statistical measurement, his +21 is so far ahead of his teammates, it further suggests a well-rounded game and a player who excels at driving scoring chances at the other end of the rink. This is even more impressive when considering that San Antonio has an even strength goals differential of -17. He is a good one for the cycle, owning the sense of when to peel off the boards and bring the puck towards the middle. Rantanen’s defensive is still developing, but as analytics teaches us, the best defense is a good offense, and that he has in spades. Rantanen benefitted from spending the year in the AHL and should be ready to take over a top six winger role with the Avalanche to start next season. For too long their forwards have either had skill or size. In Rantanen, both are nicely wrapped into one uniform.
J.T. Compher, C, Michigan (35th overall, 2013, Buffalo. Acquired in the Ryan O’Reilly trade)
(Brief disclaimer – Compher grew up in my new hometown. I have never met him or any of his family members and that fact plays zero role in this report, but it is fun to mention. It isn’t a very big town.)
If there is one prospect of note in the Avalanche system (and there certainly is) it is Mikko Rantanen. If there are two, we get to discuss Compher, who earned a Hobey Baker nomination at the conclusion of his Junior season with the Wolverines. Compher is a playmaking center who makes those around him better. An above average skater, Compher’s top attribute is his near elite hockey sense. He sees the play around well exceptionally well allowing him to both find the optimal location from which to set up shop as well as to discern the best outlet for the puck. His hockey smarts are not limited to his play with the puck, but his trusted role on the Michigan penalty kill and his success there. In fairness, the Michigan PK was not an especially good one, but that fact rests more squarely on their lackluster netminding. Compher is a diligent defender, who skates hard back to his own zone and does what he can to tie up his man. While physical play is not his priority, he has decent size (5-11”, 193) and does not shy away from contact. The former Sabres prospect has very good hands and has shown some finishing skills, with the ability to deke a defender and/or netminder when that seems like a fun option. The weakest part of Compher’s game is his shooting prowess. Neither wrist nor slap shot have much oomph to them. He gets them on target and he scored at a decent clip this season (13.2% shooting percentage), but that is more due to being I n the right place at the right team than any need to beat the opposing netminder with a clean shot. He was happy and wise to dish it off to linemates Kyle Connor and Tyler Motte, ultimately leading the NCAA in assists with 47 in 38 games, seven assists more than the runner up. There is little left for Compher to accomplish at the collegiate level, and should move his career to the next level. In his case, a few months of acclimatization in the AHL would be wise before ascending to the show. He projects as a strong middle six center with an upside potentially higher if he can add a step to his skating.
If the Avalanche have one good prospect, it is Mikko Rantanen. If they have two, they are Rantanen and J.T. Compher. If they have three, I might add Chris Bigras to that list, but he has already played 29 NHL games for Colorado. If they have three, it means they fell short in their push for the second Wild Card slot and got lucky in the lottery. That isn’t completely fair. Even if they don’t win the lottery a pick in the 10-12 range generally leads to a good NHL prospect. Not always though, which leads to a brief discussion about:
Duncan Siemens, D, San Antonio (11th overall, 2011)
Siemens is a very disappointing prospect. Thought by many pundits to be an overdraft when the Avalanche selected him just outside of the top ten in 2011, Siemens has proceeded to prove them all right. He has not developed any sort of game that includes puck play. At all. In three roughly full AHL seasons, the Edmonton native has scored two goals. His lofty combined total of 13 assists adds to that luster. As you might guess, the former first rounder is a pure stay-at-home defenseman in a league that has relatively few of those. He maintains good gaps, is solid in man-on-man coverage and knows how to technically defend an odd-man rush. When the Rampage break out of their zone, Siemens hangs back a few seconds extra, just in case. He can make a first pass, but not really a stretch pass. Just something basic to move it from around his own icing line to his defensive partner near the faceoff dots. He seems allergic to playing the puck, with stiff hands and zero creativity. He adds a physical element to the game, but that is it. In a world where the other five defensemen on a roster have some puck moving skills, Siemens could fill a niche as a third pairing shutdown guy who can help on the PK. Short of that world, there are worse fates than a long AHL career.
Joey Hishon, C, San Antonio (17th overall, 2010)
Like Siemens, there were many calls that Hishon was a stretch when drafted in the middle of the first round in 2010. Of course, those voices were not suggested he would miss nearly two full seasons in the near future to post concussion symptoms, but that the Avalanche could have done better on a pure value basis. Some other players who went later that same round include Nick Bjugstad, Riley Sheahan, Kevin Hayes, Charlie Coyle and Brock Nelson, all established young NHLers. Also, there was a guy named Evgeny Kuznetsov. Symptomatic of his standing in the Avalanche organization, Hishon never received an NHL callup this year after seeing his first 13 games of action last season. He is a fluid skater, quick with good edges and he still carries some of the playmaking skills that earned him his draft slot, and shows the occasional clever or tricky pass. It just doesn’t happen nearly often enough. His off-puck hockey sense is spotty and his game is the antithesis of physical. Even in the modern game, with skill taking over and brawn being left behind, a player still needs to be able to play with some abandon and fearlessness. While Hishon will bump once in a while, he will literally pump the brakes if he senses that he may be on the receiving end. In a sense, that is understandable considering his concussion history. But it doesn’t help him on the ice. If he played with more energy, he could secure a fourth line role. If he played with more muscle, he could be a third liner. If he had more skill, he could be a second liner. I don’t really like pigeonholing a player as skill should always win out. But Hishon’s skill level is not good enough to carry the day. Good enough to get a call-up, sure, but there will always be other guys more suited to fill in a specific role for short-term needs.
Borna Rendulic, RW, San Antonio (UFA: May 19, 2014)
Rendulic is everything that Hishon is not. That is, he has a well-defined role and the attributes to substantially fill that role. A rare Croatian player (his 14 games played in the NHL already rank him fourth alltime among that demographic and the highest among players actually born in Croatia), Rendulic was signed out of the Finnish league in 2013-14. A solid 6-2”, 201, the rangy winger plays the role of energy line crash-and-banger to a ‘T’. A good skater with a heavy slap shot, he is physical in both zones and very responsible when it comes to applying backpressure. He does not have the game to bring fans out of their seats, but is a better example of his type than current Avalanche pluggers like Cody McLeod and would be worthy of a lengthy NHL tryout.
Will Butcher, D, University of Denver (123rd overall, 2013)
A sleeper in the system, Butcher is cutting his teeth locally, starring on the blueline for the Frozen Four combatants. While undersized, the Wisconsin native has a high panic threshold and plays well in his own end, even under tremendous duress. Butcher’s game is that of a puck mover. Very mobile, he will join the rush and get quite deep into the offensive zone in support. He is a solid puck carrier and is a very good collegiate level power play point man. A two-time member of the American entry at the World Junior Championships, I expect the Avalanche to push to sign Butcher to an ELC as soon as the Pioneers’ season ends, whether or not they reach the NCAA pinnacle. With his size, he may need a season or two in the AHL, but assuming he acclimates himself to the pace of the pro game, his upside suggests a second pairing blueliner and power play mainstay.
Anthony-John Greer, LW, Rouyn-Noranda (39th overall, 2015)
I generally avoid writing about players in the CHL, but am ready to make an exception for Greer. More for what he represents than for what he is or will be. Until the mid-point of this season, Greer was a college athlete, having spent a season and a half with Boston University. A physical specimen, he had very little impact on the scoresheet for the Terriers. In mid-December, he left school to join Rouyn-Noranda. After a slow start, he found his scoring touch and finished his half season in the QMJHL with 27 points in 33 games. That’s a far cry from the 12 points in 55 games he contributed to BU. While one of the strongest players on the ice, even against much older skaters in college, there are legitimate questions about his hockey sense and puck skills that will not be answered in the Q’. As he was not drafted out of the CHL, the Avalanche would be within their rights to assign Greer to the AHL if they do not wish to send him back to Rouyn-Noranda. That said, he game is still raw enough – no matter how many points he gathers for his powerhouse squad – that he should be sent back there for a follow-up season. In Greer’s case, turning pro too early would very likely inhibit his growth and prevent Colorado from ever knowing if he could be more than a fourth liner.
Andrei Mironov, D, Dynamo Moscow (101st overall, 2015)
Mironov’s fourth season in the KHL was his best yet, with a career high 13 points in only 40 games. According to Hockey Prospectus writer Alessandro Seren Rosso, Mironov plays a heavy game despite not having a great frame. He also sends accolades to the blueliner for his plus mobility, strong point shot and smart positional play. Those nice things aside, though, Seren Rosso does not yet feel that Mironov is ready for the North American game, needing some additional intensity first. His current contract with Dynamo Moscow has one more season left to run. If that extra season proves to do the trick, he would be coming to North America as a 23 year old. Still enough time to make a name for himself.