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NHL Prospect Watch: The Florida Panthers

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NCAA HOCKEY: MAR 29 Div I Championship - West Regional - Minnesota v Robert MorrisConsidering how little I thought of the Panthers system in the offseason, ranking them 28th overall in terms of prospect depth and strength (http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/top-ten-prospects-28-florida-panthers/) and further considering their AHL franchise’s run of the mill position in the AHL standings, I should not have been surprised by the lack of excitement I had when trying to focus on the Panthers’ system. Add in the plethora of high level playoff hockey all around me and the task was not made any easier. But the more I watched the more I realized that there are some solid future NHL contributors throughout the system, even if – as I generally do – I avoid reporting on players in the CHL, like top prospect Lawson Crouse.

If you have read the other articles in this series, you may have noticed that I try to spot patterns in the types of players populating the system of the week and then focus on those patterns. This tack proved challenging for the Panthers until it hit me that they have an abundance of skilled forwards who make the term “undersized” a compliment. Most notable of that group is probably the smallest, Rocco Grimaldi, who appeared in 20 games for the Panthers this year and is on their playoff roster. But before touching on Grimaldi, the undersized forward with the biggest upside in this evaluator’s opinion is his Portland teammate Kyle Rau.

As with any player of his stature (5-8”, 173), Rau is a very slippery player. He moves in and out of gaps with relative ease and is very hard to pin down with his vision contributing to his sense of place on the ice. He can disappear for a few seconds as broader teammates establish the zone and then reappear in a gap in coverage, ready to receive the puck and perform violent sleight of hand upon it. While that would sound like he might be a peripheral player, Rau does not hesitate to chase the puck into the corners or near the net front, although he is judicious about it. The simple fact is a player like him should not spend too much time in the dirty areas of the ice and is actually wise to let his teammates do the majority of the heavy lifting.

As alluded to earlier, the strength of Rau’s game is tied up in his hands as much as his feet as they are quick enough to force opponents to lunge at the puck instead of easily neutralizing him. Rau is a talented passer and skilled goal scorer, although his shot, in a vacuum is no more than an average tool. His points will mostly come about through his vision and positioning. After one full season removed from a starring role with the University of Minnesota, he has averaged roughly one point every other game and earned a nine game cameo with the Panthers as well, numbers roughly analogous to Grimaldi in his first year out of school. His mature game is demonstrable in the trust placed in him by head coach Scott Allen who will entrust him to take defensive zone faceoffs in the final regulation minute of a game the Pirates are leading by a slim margin. I expect Rau’s offensive instincts to lead to greater point totals in a return engagement in the AHL next year, leading to a longer NHL look-see. In the right situation, he could secure a second line role, although third line production is more reasonable a projection.

Rocco Grimaldi, C, Portland Pirates (AHL)/Florida Panthers (NHL) (33rd overall, 2011)

Listed at 5-6”, 180, Grimaldi is one of the smallest skaters in modern NHL history. Like Rau, Grimaldi is an exceptional skater. If anything, he is faster. His first few steps are quick and he only picks up speed from there. The California NHL: NOV 07 Panthers at Kingsnative has a knack for finding open seams and has a very strong shot that he can snipe with from middle distance, whether standing still or rushing. A responsible player who backchecks diligently, he is not afraid of supporting his teammates in puck scrums behind the net or in other tight areas. That said, the North Dakota alumnus will always need to work in order to find open space at the NHL level.

Grimaldi’s sophomore AHL numbers were actually a step back from his production as a rookie (from 42 points in 62 games to 33 points in 52 games), but they were supplemented by five points, including three goals, in 20 games up with the Atlantic Division-winning Panthers. Grimaldi seems to have earned the trust of NHL head coach Gerard Gallant and it is reasonable to pencil him in for a spot in the NHL form the outset next year. The reason I rate Rau over Grimaldi is higher belief in the hockey sense of the former, which gives me more confidence that he could do more to drive possession and ultimately peak in a top six role. Grimaldi seems more destined to play on a bottom line, albeit of the type that contributes to the offense, just in lesser ice time and in more protected shifts.

Denis Malgin, C, ZSC (NLA) (102nd overall, 2015)

Younger than either Rau or Grimaldi and having already completed three roughly full seasons playing with adults in Switzerland, Malgin does not have the upside of either of the other profiled players here, even though at 5-9”, he is taller than both. A good skater with great hands, and a purer playmaker than either of the other two, where Malgin falls short is that in addition to being small, he also lacks strength. Without significant increases to his core build, he will help demonstrate that in the modern NHL, you can be small as long as you are strong, but lacking strength, you will be neutralized with ease. Overshadowed this year by illustrious teammate Auston Matthews, Malgin has the rough outline of a good player, but is further away from putting it all together. I would want to see more from him in Europe before being ready to bring him to North America.

Karch Bachman, LW, Cedar Rapids (USHL) (132nd overall, 2015)

Drafted last year out of an Indiana prep school, Bachman’s USHL number this year (14 goals, 8 assists in 35 games across three teams) do not impress. But you watch him play and it takes very little imagination to see him killing penalties at the highest level. After he was drafted, Dale Tallon was reported to have stated that Bachman was the fastest player in the draft. He was not – Connor McDavid wins that title, hands down and I would put my money on Vince Dunn in a foot race as well – but Bachman can fly. Listed at 5-11”, 175, he may be slighter than that and lacks muscle both for puck battles as well as for putting mustard on his shot. He will have time at Miami (Ohio) to gain muscle, but between his wheels, sound hockey sense and plus hands, the elements of a classic late bloomer are all there.

Mike Matheson, D, Portland Pirates (AHL) (23rd overall, 2012)

After three seasons at Boston College, Matheson made solid strides in his first full season as a professional. The former first round pick showed all of the tools that earned him his lofty draft position. A plus skater with a vigorous physical game, he has everything you want in an NHL blueliner, except consistency (yet). An aggressive player on both sides of the puck, Matheson enjoys blowing up forwards along the wall in his own zone and flying through the neutral zone to lead the transition to an offensive game. The Quebec native still needs to grow more comfortable in his defensive decision making, as you can almost see him trying to make up his mind at times when things get hectic in his own end. Puck management also needs to tighten up. If the Panthers allow both of Brian Campbell and Willie Mitchell to walk and do not sign a veteran replacement, Matheson is likely next in line to ascend to a regular NHL role. That said, his development would be better served with another season of big minutes on the farm instead of taking on a third pairing role in the NHL. Given patient development he could still be a solid second pairing defender.

Mackenzie Weegar, D, Portland Pirates (206th overall, 2013)

Never a prominent prospect at any level, Weegar quietly rose to prominence with Halifax in the QMJHL, a team he joined as an undrafted free agent and earned a spot as one of the final players selected in the 2013 draft. After a season split between the AHL and ECHL, Weegar spent the entirety of this season with Portland, where he showed just enough to suggest that the Panthers have an intriguing sleeper in the righthanded shot. While none of his tools rate as more than above average, all of them are at least average as Weegar contributes on both ends of the ice. He makes a good first pass to begin the transition but will also get himself very deep in the offensive zone to support the attack. Look for Weegar to make his NHL debut next season and prove himself worthy of a second contract.

Ryan Bednard, G, Youngstown (USHL) (206th overall, 2015)

The Bowling Green State was one of the more impressive goalies I have watched this year in the USHL. A very athletic netminder who tracks the puck well, what sticks out most in Bednard’s game is his rebound control. He simply surrenders very, very few second chances. As with any goalie prospect, success may be ephemeral, but he has prototype size (6-4”, 179) and plenty of time to develop in college before he will be put to the test. Definitely one to keep an eye on.

Michael Downing, D, Michigan (NCAA) (97th overall, 2013)

Although he has since signed his ELC after three seasons with the Wolverines, Downing has never really impressed me. He is a decent skater, and is reasonably effective when carrying the puck through the zone or defending in his own end, his +20 rating this year is more a product of playing on a stacked team in a lackluster conference. He is OK wherever you look, but lacks any one tool or attribute that suggests high end upside.

Joe Wegwerth, RW, Notre Dame (NCAA) (92nd overall, 2014)

I try to stay positive in these reports, but I bring up Wegwerth as an example of the type of player that teams no longer draft for a good reason. Listed at 6-3”, 229, he is huge and plays big. But other than his body there is nothing to his game that suggests a professional career much less an NHL future. His skating is clunky, he lacks positional sense or hockey instincts. His shot lacks punch. It is no secret how he managed only four points in 30 games as a freshman. There will always be players who bring nothing beyond a physical game available on draft day. Those players should also be available after draft day.

 

 


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