Lucas Raymond of Sweden during the IIHF U18 World Championship final game between Sweden and Russia on April 28 in Örnsköldsvik.
Photo: Johan Löf / BILDBYRÅN
Team Outlook/Challenges
After an underwhelming tournament last year, Sweden, with coach Tomas Montén, should be an extra hungry squad. Sweden usually plays for the medals in this tournament, but they could not muster up enough offense to get through the quarterfinal last year. This year’s team enters the tournament with the same weakness. Almost all the talent is on defense with a weak group of forwards. On paper, I can´t see this Swedish team challenging for gold. The forward group just isn´t strong enough and it did not help to have a player like Filip Hallander (PIT) injured either. I´d be a bit more optimistic if Montén would have selected players with more offensive potential like Noel Gunler (2020) or Simon Holmstrom (NYI). While perhaps they are not entirely ready yet, they have the potential to be difference makers, rather than ‘more ready’ players with limited upside.
The depth on defense on the other hand is outstanding. Nils Lundkvist (NYR) has been dominating in the SHL this fall, Tobias Bjornfot (LAK) has played in the NHL, Philip Broberg (EDM) has been electric in the SHL, Mattias Norlinder (MTL) has been a top defenseman in Allsvenskan and Victor Soderstrom (ARI) has been very good in the SHL, after he returned from training camp with Arizona. In addition, Rasmus Sandin (TOR) who also has played in the NHL this season got late clearance to join the team. It´s somewhat amazing to think that NHLers Adam Boqvist and even Rasmus Dahlin are eligible by age (but will remain in the NHL). First round draft choice Filip Johansson (MIN) is left off the team and Albert Johansson (DET) who has impressed in the SHL is another noticeable cut as well as undrafted rising defenseman Adam Wilsby who has over a point-per-game pace in Allsvenskan.
When it comes to the forwards, there is some light at the end of the tunnel though with the younger age groups. This year, two highly touted 2002-born forwards, Alexander Holtz (2020) and Lucas Raymond (2020), should be impactful players. Given the structure of the forward group, Sweden’s success will probably depend on how good Raymond and Holtz can be this year. They both were vital when Sweden won the U18 gold last spring..
From that U18-tournament, goalie Hugo Alnefelt (TBL) has had an impressive start to this season as a SHL rookie and is the favorite to win the starting job. Personally, I would count Erik Portillo (BUF) as a strong candidate as well. Portillo is a big goalie with poise, and he looked good during the summer showcase.
When Sweden won gold in 2012 most of the talent was also on defense. The top four in scoring in the Swedish team were named Friberg, Collberg, Thorell and Rensfeldt. eight years later, Friberg is the only one of those four that has played in the NHL and he has a career total of six NHL games. My point is that Sweden will need to find some players with surprising hot streaks and become game breakers for them to go far in the tournament. Forwards like Samuel Fagemo (LAK), Jonatan Berggren (DET) and Nils Hoglander (VAN) have potential to be that. Last year, Sweden did beat both USA and Finland in the group stage so the tournament was not all bad. Therefore, I would not count Sweden out of the gold discussion, but they will not be the favorites.
Ten players to watch:
- Rasmus Sandin – D - Sweden’s best player entering the tournament. Sandin does almost everything well. He has offensive upside to his game as well as smart defensive play. I am quite certain that he will have a long and strong career in the NHL. For a Swedish comparison, he is more of an Oliver Ekman-Larsson than an Erik Karlsson or Victor Hedman in style and potential. I am actually a bit surprised he did not get to stay with the Leafs for the full season after a strong training camp and six NHL games. In the AHL he has 40 points in 63 career games which is very impressive for a 19-year-old two-way defenseman. He was very good at the WJC last season and will have an even bigger role this season. Sandin is a balanced defenseman who can adjust to his partner and to the situation very well. Sandin is useful on both the penalty kill as well as the top power play. He is also a strong 5-on-5 player when joining the attack and as a breakout passer or puck-mover.
- Nils Lundkvist – D - It looks like the Rangers soon will have a new Lundkvist making headlines. After a quiet season last year, Lundkvist has really bloomed this season. He was not impressive by the end of last season. He did not look fast enough and played more conservatively than he had the year before, but then I thought he was the best defenseman for Sweden at the summer showcase, which changed my mind. In the SHL, he has put up an impressive 17 points in 24 games and has been the best defenseman on one of the best teams in the league. He ranks third among all defenseman in scoring. Lundkvist is a smart defenseman who rarely gets stressed. He controls the puck well and makes smart plays even though he is highly pressured. He moves the puck efficiently with both strong breakout and entries. He has the puck skills to run a power play but could work on his shot to be an even more dangerous threat. His decision-making in all situations are high-end. For this tournament, he should be the second most played defenseman after Sandin.
- Philip Broberg – D - While his point totals as a senior player over the last two seasons are underwhelming, and he only has four points in 24 SHL games this season, he is a long-term prospect and has the upside to become a top pair NHL defenseman. At the junior level, he has always looked strong, he was dominant at the U18 WJC last spring, and played in the U20 WJC as 17-year-old last season. Broberg’s weapon is his extraordinary skating skills combined with nice puck skills. He can break out a play from his own zone by just skating out with the puck. He has a good first pass and is strong defensively with his skating and reach. A question mark is his offensive ceiling given he is not particularly strong on the power play. He has gotten power play time in SHL this season but has not thrived. He is just not strong when the game is standing still and needs to work on that. In this tournament, he has the potential to be a dominant force from the backend. He can shut down plays as well as deliver exits from his own end and entries into the offensive zone.
- Tobias Bjornfot – D - Bjornfot surprised when he made the NHL to start the season. While the Kings defensive depth is not strong, it is rare for an 18-year-old. He played three games and has since played in the AHL, putting up nine points in 23 games. Bjornfot is a poised two-way defenseman that can combine both good offensive play with smart defensive play. He is mobile and plays to his strengths. He has underrated puck skills because he rarely makes flashy plays, but he often makes smart plays. Bjornfot also handles high pressure well. He was one of the key players on gold medal Swedish team at the U18 level. Despite moving the puck well, the ceiling to his offensive game is limited by the lack of elite skills to be a strong quarterback on a power play. Bjornfot will become a good top four defenseman in the NHL and will probably play the same role here as one of the best second pair defenseman in the tournament.
- Victor Soderstrom – D - Soderstrom played the full training camp with Arizona before getting sent back to Sweden and the SHL. He has been very good since his return and produced nine points in 15 games as an 18-year-old defenseman. He has taken big steps since last season. He is a smart defenseman with some nice skills on the power play. I expect him to be on one of the two power play units even though he was not selected to the roster until the Chicago Blackhawks chose not to send Adam Boqvist to the tournament. I have a hard time understanding why he was not on the roster right away. He plays smart at both ends of the ice and a strong player if you either are chasing a goal or defending a goal.he will likely play on the third pair but with power play time. Soderstrom could be a regular NHL defenseman as early as next season with top pairing potential, and a top four defenseman as the floor for his development.
- David Gustafsson – C - Gustafsson is playing in the NHL this season, perhaps too early with only one point in 22 games. On this team, he will be the top center and expected to make an impact. He´s big, strong and competes extremely well. That can make him a potential “monster” when he plays against peer competition. He lacks high-end skills though and projects to a good NHL career as a bottom six center. At the WJC level, he will be Sweden’s first center choice in every important situation. Gustafsson isn’t strong setting up a power play or being the creative player on his line so he’s best used as a strong presence in front of the net on a power play and the responsible center on a top line. If Sweden had a strong offensive center available, Gustafsson would have been the ideal second line center. He is effective on the penalty and owns a smart stick. He will be the leader both on and off the ice in this tournament.
- Samuel Fagemo - RW/L - A goal scorer who could be a potential game breaker for the Swedish squad if he gets on a hot streak. He plays poised and with confidence and does not need to rely on his surroundings to create chances and score goals. He takes the puck to the net and has a dangerous wrist shot. He scored 14 goals in the SHL last season and is on the same pace this season with six goals in his first 20 games. I am still not convinced that he can become an NHL player over time though. His skating needs to be elite for him the play his style as a top six winger on an NHL team and he will need to overcome that to get there. Last WJC he created chances but was not able to capitalize on them and it will be crucial to the Swedish offense that Fagemo score goals this time around. He has been strong when he has played with the U20 national team this fall and has scored five goals in seven games. Against his peers, he looks strong and is a dangerous player in the offensive end. My bet is that he’ll score four or more goals in this tournament.
- Nils Hoglander – RW/L - Hoglander keeps taking forward steps in development. Last season he scored 14 points in 50 games and was the last player to be cut from the WJC roster. This season he will be one of the top line forwards on this team and has nine points in 19 games in the SHL. If you only watch highlights, it is easy to be excited by Hoglander. He has a knack of scoring beautiful and creative goals. His all-around offensive game still needs some work though. Hoglander is an intense and elusive forward with strong balance and great hands. He will need to get better at playing at different paces. He lacks the hockey sense to drive a power play and lacks the size to be a strong checking player. The combination of aggression, intensity and highly skilled puck handling is exciting to watch and the WJC setting with high pace and high skilled hockey will suit him well.
- Lucas Raymond – LW/C - Raymond is trying to find his way on a top SHL team. He has five points in 16 games so far with limited ice time. He has not taken control of games as he has done at the junior level. Raymond is at his best a scoring chance machine and a tremendous driver of offensive play. He is creative and he processes the game at a high pace. He can find open passing lanes and can pause the play and control the pace at a level that few players can. His hands are as quick as his mind. He is kind of raw in the way that he doesn’t play inside the box of how a good offensive player should play like, he can make surprise moves outside the box, sometimes it make you say wow, other times it makes you question his team play. Lucas Raymond has NHL elite forward potential and he will be a good top five pick in this upcoming draft. In this tournament, I can really see him being one of Sweden’s best forwards. He looked great at the U20 summer showcase where he created a lot of scoring chances for himself and others even if he did not score a lot.
- Alexander Holtz – RW/L - Holtz adapted fast to the SHL at the beginning of the season. He has shown ability to create chances and to score goals. His production started strong but slowed down in the latter part of the first half season. He has scored five goals and eight points in 21 games as 17-year-old though, which is good. The SHL record for points in a season by an U18 player is 21 points. Holtz plays in an offensive role and looks comfortable doing so. He covers the puck well and is a threat from the circles with his shot. Holtz is, first and foremost, a goal scorer but gets underrated as a playmaker. He has the ability to be both the setup guy as well as the trigger man on a power play for example. Holtz is also a good two-way forward as he works hard all over the ice. He has elite NHL forward potential and is a strong candidate to be a top 10 pick for next year’s NHL draft. In this tournament, he will not play on the top line, but will get an offensive role on a second or third line and provide a big scoring threat against softer matchups.
Surprise players
Mattias Norlinder –D -One of the best skaters in the tournament, Norlinder has great speed and moves the puck well. He is very effective and a useful piece to play, and I believe he can be a regular NHL defenseman in a couple of years. He has scored 0.50 points per game in Allsvenskan this season and his offense has a limited ceiling. He is good with the puck and handles pressure well, but he does not have the power play skillset needed to be a top pair defenseman. The asset that will take him to the big leagues is the combination of elite skating and good puck moving. He is a strong breakout defenseman who can be dangerous joining the rush. With the strong d-core Sweden has, Norlinder will raise some eyebrows at this tournament as a future NHL defenseman on this team.
Nikola Pasic – RW/C - Sweden will need a couple of forwards to step up and outperform their status. Devils late pick, Pasic could be that guy. At McKeen’s we had him ranked much higher than he got drafted and one of the knocks on him was that he hadn’t shown as much at senior level as he had at a junior level. This season Pasic has been playing in Allsvenskan and he has not disappointed. 24 points in 28 games is very strong for a junior player in his first full junior season. Pasic is a speedy winger with strong hands. He can create chances on his own and can drive offensive plays. On this team he will play a middle six role and can be a strong point getter and make some teams regret that they did not draft him earlier.