UMEA, SWEDEN - APRIL 18: Finland's Anton Lundell #20 stickhandles the puck against Canada's Peyton Krebs #19 during preliminary round action of the 2019 IIHF Ice Hockey U18 World Championship at A3 Arena on Apirl 18, 2019 in Umea, Sweden. (Photo by Chris Tanouye/HHOF-IIHF Images)
I’m endlessly fascinated by watching Finnish hockey. I find it to be extremely team-focused and the best teams value possession heavily. Anton Lundell has often been called the “future of Finnish hockey” and after tracking seven games of his, I can absolutely see how he gets that reputation. He isn’t the flashiest player much of the time, but he’s the king of being subtly effective. He was the 2nd ranked full time Liiga player in SAT% behind Jesse Puljujarvi, which on the surface is remarkable and I had to explore what drove those results. The more I study the game, the more I respect players like Lundell, especially at this age, so let’s find out why.
If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.
Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video
Think
We’re getting Lundell’s best asset out of the way early. He’s extremely reliable, especially in his own end. He’s no-nonsense with little flash to his game, but he’s extremely effective at applying pressure, prolonging offensive cycles and attacking forecheckers to cause turnovers. Some centres can cover deep in their own zone but fail to mitigate the threat of a specific forechecker. Lundell not only can keep gaps tight, but he’ll tie up players in front of the net and always be ready to turn pucks back up the ice. His approach to the game is extremely projectable as a solid centre, especially in his own end. Offensively he can anticipate play well and rarely makes poor decisions with the puck that cause turnovers. He’s willing to be patient and can make a play to maintain possession or create offensive chances. He isn’t perfect as 52% of defensive transitions were done with control of the puck, which may not be what you’d expect from such a strong possession player, but he’s rarely out of the play and constantly works defensively to gain possession of the puck back one way or the other. Lundell may be a 40/60 offense/defense split centre, but for his age, he’s extremely well refined, responsible and mature and I can imagine NHL teams won’t hesitate to call his name in the draft.
Bad Think
Think 1
Think 2
Think Get
Move
To some, this is where his game might be lacklustre, and while I can see the reasoning behind those critiques, and I’m not afraid of a player’s skating being a major hindrance if they can drive results, Lundell is a player that might not quite live up to the expectations of a Top-10 NHL pick in the eyes of some fans. He isn’t a slow skater so much as his skating looks a bit laborious from time to time. He’s older for the draft class and didn’t flash his raw speed a ton, but a peak blueline to blueline time of 1.75 seconds is certainly not slow. Something I’ve picked up on with timing players blueline to blueline is that smaller players may often appear to be faster, and larger players may often appear slower, but guys like Lundell indicate that looks can be deceiving. Lundell likely won’t blow through opposing defenses all night, but he can certainly hold his own against men, especially with the pressure he can apply to opponents. His hands aren’t quite on the same level as other players in this range, but he’s shown flashes of being effective with evading defenders using his skill. I’ve seen him get taken for walks defensively from time to time, but he’s an exceptionally smart tactical player who can stick to a forechecker and find opportunities to strip him of the puck.
Get
Anton Lundell is one of those players who seems to just “get” the game of hockey. He’s not the quickest guy on the ice, but he’s at his most effective when it comes to closing and maintaining gaps on forecheckers and stripping them of the puck when he sees the chance. It’s consistent between shifts and games. He can be physical along the boards, he can knock pucks down with his stick, he can use his stick to knock pucks off opponents, and I think he’s only limited by how far his skating and skill development will take him. On the downside, while he was a top-level possession player in the Liiga, removing the low danger shot attempts from the seven games while Lundell was on the ice, Lundell’s SAT% dropped from 51% to 47%, which isn’t ideal. Gaining more speed on his feet over time will reduce the amount of times he gets outskated in the defensive zone, and more skill development should also help him drive more dangerous shot attempts in the offensive zone. That one caveat doesn’t take away too far from Lundell’s high level ability to gain and retain possession of pucks in all areas of the ice, which is a pivotal skill for NHL success.
Bad Get
Get 1
Get 2
Pass
Lundell’s game gets a little off in this regard. He’ll need to complete more of his passes from a pure percentage standpoint. 67% of his pass attempts were completed, and as a centre he’s going to need to be more reliable. Pace can be slower in the Liiga, but it ramps up quickly in North American pro leagues. On the plus side, he’s often very creative and intelligent with his pass attempts. If he’s under pressure, he finds teammates and attempts to avoid getting grinded out of possession. He’s unselfish with the puck and if he can’t generate enough speed on his own, he’ll use his passing to move the puck quickly up the ice. 12% of his pass attempts were done with control, which is about average for a pro-level centre, so while I don’t see him being a tremendous playmaker in the NHL, his creativity and relatively quick decision making leads me to believe there’s nice offensive potential. He can chop at opposing defenders attempting to turn pucks up the ice and manage to get the puck to dangerous areas. Sometimes in the NHL, you just need guys who can force the puck to the slot one way or the other, and Lundell is capable of doing so. If his reliability can take a step in general, and he can adapt to smaller ice to get pucks in front of the net more often, there could be nice potential as a playmaker here.
Shoot
This is a question mark of his game to me. His shot is good, but he wasn’t driving a ton of attempts from high danger areas. 6% of his attempts came from the slot, but he did manage to get 47% of his attempts from medium danger areas. It isn’t perfect, but he’s likely going to be a player that shows his value in many other situations. He shows flashes of being able to use his size to push deep into the offensive zone, so with more experience and strength he should be able to turn those natural instincts into shot attempts from in front.
Shot Get
The Best Part
Lundell is probably the most defensively refined player available. He’s responsible, sticks to opponents, applies pressure and turns pucks around extremely well. There’s no wonder why he’s such a top possession player in the Liiga. He’s an intelligent pace controlling player who can close gaps and consistently will do those little positive things that push play positively.
The Good Part
His pass completion rate isn’t great, but he’s quietly effective at moving pucks around the ice. He’s unselfish, can find teammates and maintain possession well. He can quietly move pucks to dangerous areas in a variety of ways. He’s patient with the puck and will use players on the ice to his advantage. Once he hits his targets a bit more often, he could unlock some nice playmaking potential.
The Not-So Good Part
This is a complicated one for me. As refined as Anton Lundell is, the question is how much development he will need to do between now and his peak. In the Top-10, there are other players with more offensive flash, better mobility around the ice, but perhaps without the defensive refinement. You need players like Lundell in the NHL, but if other players in this range develop as well, will they surpass Lundell’s refinements while leaving him behind in the offensive sense? That’s a hard question to answer right now, but I can simultaneously see why some would find him extremely valuable, and a big risk in the Top-10. If the expectation is a second line centre useful in any situation, does your team have the offensive weapons to add the offense he may lack down the road? There’s a lot of exceptional high-octane offensive talent this year and passing to draft a more defensive player with some issues passing pucks might be something you regret in a few years.
Overall
Lundell is a player you just have to respect. He does the little things right in his own end, moves pucks unselfishly and while he could do to complete more passes, there’s potential there for him as a playmaker over time. He has some parallels to Minnesota’s Mikko Koivu with his defensive responsibility, likely Top-10 Draft slot, and never really recognized for his contributions until he’s much further along in his career. If he can refine his skill, complete more passes on a consistent basis, and gain some more footspeed to be even more effective in the defensive zone, he could be a tremendously valuable two-way centre, but at the very worst, you’re looking at an excellent defensive centre who can push possession well and strip forecheckers of the puck to turn the game around. He should fit in on any team and you certainly need player like Lundell, but the question will be what you’re sacrificing by passing on other talent, and if his footspeed and skill doesn’t take a step, are you happy with a very good middle-six centre who can drive possession? I don’t think there’s a wrong answer, but I’m very curious to see how Lundell’s profile translates to the next level.
NOTES
Data tracked includes controlled and uncontrolled zone entries and exits the player is involved in, as well as shot attempts, their location, the player's pass attempts, and the percentage of those pass attempts that are directed to high or medium danger areas. The grades referred to in the video are assigned with a number and a letter grade. The number from one through four indicates the general tier of talent, with one being highest, and the letter indicating the consistency around that tier of talent.
Final Rankings: Think - 1B, Move - 2B, Get - 1B, Pass - 1D, Shoot - 2B, Overall - 1C
Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841