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NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Did the Leafs add enough to finally get over the first-round playoff hump?

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TAMPA, FL - APRIL 11: Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Brandon Hagel (38) and Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (88) during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 11th 2023 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

For the second straight season there is a solid case to be made that the Toronto Maple Leafs are better than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Not by a lot, necessarily, but the Maple Leafs finished higher in the standings, with a better goal differential, and superior puck possession numbers.

Is that going to be enough for the Maple Leafs to finally get over the first-round playoff hump for the first time since 2003-2004?

Forwards

Auston Matthews battled through a wrist injury and still finished with 40 goals, after scoring 60 goals last season. He seemed to be in fine form in the latter stages of the year, putting up 14 goals and 28 points with 114 shots on goal in his last 22 games. If the Leafs are going to win the series, they will need Matthews and Mitch Marner to elevate their play for the postseason. Both have managed 33 points in 39 career playoff contests and that’s respectable, but Toronto needs even more from their star forwards. It is fair to wonder about the Leafs’ scoring depth. William Nylander had his first 40-goal season and John Tavares remains productive, but there is a thinner cast of productive forwards behind the Big Four.

Ryan O’Reilly adds something to the lineup when healthy, and both Calle Jarnkrok and Michael Bunting have proven to be useful complementary pieces, but someone in the supporting cast needs to step up. Maybe it will be rookie Matthew Knies, who has recorded one assist in three games since joining the Leafs after his University of Minnesota season ended with a loss in the national championship game.

Tampa Bay has elite talent with a track record of playoff success. Nikita Kucherov has 93 points over the past three postseasons, most in the league by a long shot. Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon ranks second with 64 and Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point ranks third with 61. Steven Stamkos has 33 points in 47 games across the past three playoffs, missing most of the 2019-2020 Stanley Cup run. With three straight trips to the Final, Tampa Bay has received ample secondary scoring.

Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli have been contributors throughout Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup runs while Ross Colton, Brandon Hagel, Nick Paul, and Corey Perry have joined the fray more recently. The expectation was that Tanner Jeannot might offer some more toughness and scoring depth after he was acquired from Nashville, but a late season lower-body injury could prevent him from being ready for the start of the playoffs.

Defense

For all of the changes that the Maple Leafs have made to their blueline in recent seasons, there are still going to be questions about how strong this group is heading into the playoffs. Toronto ranks seventh in shots against and 11th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, but the results since the trade deadline are not quite as encouraging. Since adding Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, and Erik Gustafsson, the Leafs rank 18th and 20th, respectively, in those categories. McCabe and T.J. Brodie have formed an effective shutdown pair while Mark Giordano and Justin Holl are competent, but there are legitimate concerns about the performance of Morgan Rielly, whose ice time has dropped under 20 minutes per game over the past month, and Luke Schenn, who has been getting caved in consistently since returning to Toronto. Timothy Liljegren offers a steady alternative, but only if head coach Sheldon Keefe includes him in the lineup.

When the Lightning have been making their runs to the Stanley Cup Final, they have had a strong defensive record and this season has revealed some vulnerability on that front, with higher-than-average rates of shots and expected goals against. Mikhail Sergachev busted out with the best season of his career, scoring 64 points while playing nearly 24 minutes per game.

For the first time in a long time Victor Hedman was not a standout on the Tampa Bay blueline, showing more defensive vulnerability, but he has produced 59 points in 71 games during Tampa Bay’s last three playoff runs, so he could easily be a difference maker once again. Erik Cernak and Ian Cole are effective shot suppressors while Nicklaus Perbix and Darren Raddysh have been seeing more regular action than Zach Bogosian. Overall, though, this group represents an area of legitimate concern for Tampa Bay.

Goaltending

With Matt Murray injured, Toronto has a lot riding on Ilya Samsonov, a 26-year-old who had the best season of his career, posting a .919 save percentage while starting a career-high 40 games. However, he has modest playoff experience, with just one win in seven career postseason starts. Any goaltender that achieves playoff success has to start somewhere.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the standard bearer among active goaltenders for playoff performance. Not only has he started 71 games in the past three postseasons, but he has delivered a .928 save percentage, which is tops among goaltenders to appear in at least 10 games. With Tampa Bay’s suspect defense, the Lightning will need an epic performance from the 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner. That is not out of the question, but it is the first time in a while that Tampa Bay has been so dependent on its star netminder.

Special Teams

Given the top tier talent on these teams, it comes as no surprise that both clubs have fared well with the man advantage. Toronto ranks fourth with 9.25 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play and Tampa Bay is close behind in fifth with 9.10 goals per 60.

Maple Leafs captain John Tavares tallied 18 of his 36 goals on the power play and Auston Matthews added 13. Tampa Bay’s top triggermen on the power play were Brayden Point, who scored 20 of his 51 goals with the man advantage, and Steven Stamkos, who added 14.

Toronto’s penalty killing is a strength, ranking fifth with 5.72 goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play, thanks largely to allowing the lowest rate of high danger shot attempts in those circumstances. That does offer Toronto an edge over Tampa Bay, which ranks 15th with 7.21 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play.

Conclusion

The Maple Leafs were right there with the Lightning in last year’s playoff matchup, ultimately losing in Game 7, but this year’s version of the Lightning is not quite as formidable. There is the possibility that the Lightning can just flip the postseason switch and be ready for another Stanley Cup run, but it looks like Tampa Bay has slipped enough that the Maple Leafs can finally earn a first-round victory. Maple Leafs in 6.


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