The Boston Bruins accrued 135 points, the most ever in a National Hockey League season, and they are the Stanley Cup favorites heading into the postseason. The Florida Panthers won the Presidents’ Trophy last season, but it was a much more difficult path to reach the playoffs this year.
Naturally, the Bruins are expected to win their first round series against the Panthers, but it could be closer than the standings might suggest.
Forwards
The Bruins’ attack is paced by right winger David Pastrnak, who led the team with 61 goals and 113 points, but he has a strong supporting cast. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand may be getting older, but they are still dominant two-way players. Bergeron is 37 years old, and the Bruins controlled 63.2% of expected goals and 71.3% of goals during five-on-five play when he was on the ice. It’s preposterous.
Jake DeBrusk, Pavel Zacha, and David Krejci all had at least 50 points. Charlie Coyle, Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Trent Frederic all provide additional scoring depth. This is one of Boston’s big advantages – scoring threats throughout the lineup.
Florida is more top heavy, with Matthew Tkachuk both the scoring and spiritual leader of the group, putting up 40 goals and 109 points with 123 penalty minutes. If the Panthers are going to pull off the upset, they will need Tkachuk to continue his outstanding play. After the trade deadline, he produced 12 goals and 30 points with 85 shots on goal in 19 games. Carter Verhaeghe, with a career-high 42 goals, and Aleksander Barkov, who topped 75 points for the fourth time in his career, are the other top scoring threats for the Panthers.
Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett are quality secondary scoring options and Bennett does have a knack for rising to the occasion in the postseason, putting up 21 points in 30 games over his past four playoff appearances. Bennett has also been out since March 20 with a lower-body injury, leaving his status questionable for the start of the playoffs. A supporting cast that includes Anthony Duclair, Anton Lundell, and Eetu Luostarinen has some potential but, overall, the Bruins have a deeper forward group.
Defense
Boston brings one of the best bluelines in the league to this series. Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy are both legitimate No. 1 defensemen worthy of Norris Trophy votes and having two players of that calibre is a luxury available to precious few teams. Adding Dmitry Orlov at the trade deadline only made the group stronger as it gives the Bruins another well-rounded blueliner who can move the puck but handle defensive responsibility, too. Matt Grzelcyk adds mobility while Brandon Carlo, Connor Clifton, and Derek Forbort bring more of a physical presence to the game. While the Bruins defense is strong, the defensive results since the trade deadline are relatively mediocre, with Boston ranking 14th in all-situations shots against and expected goals against per 60 minutes. It’s not egregiously terrible, but it is not as dominant as the Bruins were earlier in the season.
Brandon Montour emerged as a premier offensive defenseman this season, finishing in a tie for fifth among blueliners with 73 points while playing a career-high 24:08 per game. Montour averaged more than three shots on goal per game, a big jump from his previous high of 2.21 shots per game, set in 2018-2019. Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad both logged more than 23 minutes per game, and they form a solid nucleus on the blueline. It’s beyond those three where the questions start to hit. Marc Staal, Radko Gudas, and Josh Mahura round out the top six and that looks like a defense that will eventually get exposed against Boston’s forwards. The Panthers ranked 22nd in all-situations shots against and 23rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, so there is a defensive vulnerability that lingers over this Panthers team.
Goaltending
Maybe the biggest edge that the Bruins hold in this series is the potential goaltending advantage offered by Linus Ullmark, who is favored to win the Vezina Trophy after leading the league in wins (40), goals against average (1.89), and save percentage (.938). Jeremy Swayman gives the Bruins an excellent secondary option in goal, delivering a .920 save percentage for the season, but a .932 mark in 23 games after the calendar flipped to 2023.
While Boston has two strong options between the pipes, the Panthers have more question marks. AHL call-up Alex Lyon played big role in Florida’s late season push to the playoffs. He is a 30-year-old journeyman who had a .912 save percentage in a career-high 15 games but had a .943 save percentage in his last eight starts. Goaltending is unpredictable at the best of times, but just about anything can happen in small samples, and that could include Lyon making a name for himself by stonewalling the top team in the league. If Lyon turns into a kitty cat, a now-healthy Sergei Bobrovsky would be available for the Panthers. The 34-year-old was mediocre during the regular season and has a spotty playoff track record, but it would come as no surprise if Florida’s $10 million goaltender appeared in this series.
Special Teams
Both the Bruins and Panthers are above average with the man advantage. Boston scored 8.21 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, which ranked eighth. Pastrnak led the Bruins with 18 power play goals, followed by Bergeron and Marchand, both with nine. Florida scored 7.92 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, ranking 10th. Reinhart tallied 16 power play goals and Tkachuk added 14, while Barkov and Ekblad both contributed eight. The Panthers spent 5:26 per game at five-on-four, tops among all playoff teams.
Penalty killing is a significant advantage for the Bruins, as Boston ranked first in expected goals against and actual goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play. Their goaltending has been great, but Boston has allowed the lowest rate of shots against per 60 in those situations, too. Florida had slightly better than average penalty killing results, but that is still operating at a deficit against Boston.
Conclusion
As great as the regular season was for the Bruins, their possession numbers do not quite match their historically dominant place in the standings, so they are probably not as good as 135 points would suggest. At the same time, the Panthers had better possession numbers than their 92-point season would indicate and might be better than their point total. With Tkachuk leading the way, the Panthers could be a lively underdog if they can get quality goaltending. That ‘if’ is a big factor, though, so Boston is still the pick to advance. Bruins in 6.