The Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild meet in what ought to be a competitive matchup between the second and third-place teams in the Central Division.
After both teams lost in the first round of last year’s playoffs, one is guaranteed to advance this time around.
Forwards
The Stars have one of the best lines in the league, as the trio of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski outscored opponents 52-24. Robertson has emerged as the premier offensive threat on the club, scoring 46 goals and 109 points, with dominant play-driving numbers to boot. What makes the Stars more formidable this season is the improved play from the supporting cast. Captain Jamie Benn had 33 goals and 78 points, his highest totals in both categories since 2017-2018. Tyler Seguin added 21 goals and rookie Wyatt Johnston produced 24 goals, tying Seattle’s Matty Beniers for the rookie goal-scoring lead.
Dallas added Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov before the trade deadline to improve their scoring depth. Dadonov contributed 15 points in 23 games, but Domi added just two goals and seven points in 20 games with the Stars. The Stars do have some intriguing depth options. Center Radek Faksa has been excellent in a checking role while Mason Marchment and Ty Dellandrea both tend to play a physical style that could be useful in the playoffs.
While Minnesota did get leading scorer Kirill Kaprizov back from injury late in the regular season, they also lost Joel Eriksson Ek, Mason Shaw, and possibly Marcus Johansson to injuries. That will test Minnesota’s forward depth. When Kaprizov was injured, second-year winger Matt Boldy emerged as a star in his own right, scoring 14 goals in his last 16 games. Mats Zuccarello is a proven point producer and Gustav Nyquist added five points in three games for the Wild after returning from injury late in the year.
The Wild had just four players – Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Boldy, and Eriksson Ek – with more than 40 points, so they will need contributions from others. Ryan Hartman, Frederick Gaudreau, and Sam Steel have all had good moments and Marcus Foligno brings a physical presence, but this series could be a battle between which team gets production beyond its top scorers.
Defense
Miro Heiskanen set a Stars defense record with 73 points, but he is also a premier defender who logs more than 25 minutes per game. The 23-year-old is going to be a Norris Trophy candidate for years to come. Ryan Suter and Esa Lindell are reliable defensively and Jani Hakanpaa consistently lays his body on the line. Colin Miller has been steady enough on the third pair and it looks like rookie Thomas Harley has supplanted Nils Lundkvist on the third pairing. Dallas’ defensive play has been above average, ranking ninth in all-situations shots against per 60 minutes and sixth in expected goals against per 60.
Minnesota’s blueline has been solid and has added a few potential upgrades, too. Captain Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin are two of the better shutdown defenders in the league. Matt Dumba has lost some juice offensively but still logged more than 20 minutes per game for a seventh straight season and Jacob Middleton is a hard-nosed defender. While the Wild have veterans Alex Goligoski and Jon Merrill, both could be bumped from the top six. Trade deadline pickup John Klingberg had a tough season in Anaheim, and his defensive play has seriously slipped, but Klingberg contributed nine points in 17 games for the Wild. He can quarterback the power play and that ability cannot be ignored. The other potential addition to the Minnesota blueline is rookie Brock Faber, the University of Minnesota captain who played two games at the end of the season for the Wild. Faber blocked nine shots in just over 40 minutes of ice time in those two games and he could add some youthful exuberance to Minnesota’s defense.
Although the Wild rank 15th in all-situations shots against per 60 minutes, they have managed to rank eighth in expected goals per 60, an indication that Minnesota is doing okay when it comes to quality of shots allowed.
Goaltending
After last season’s spectacular performance in a first-round loss to Calgary, when he had a .954 save percentage in seven games, Dallas’ Jake Oettinger should not shrink from the playoff pressure. The 24-year-old netminder had an excellent season, posting a .919 save percentage in 62 games, and the Minnesota native looks like one of the premier up-and-coming young goaltenders in the league.
Minnesota is in a rare position heading into the postseason, with the expectation that they will ride a goaltending tandem of Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson. Gustavsson has been the better option this season, posting a .931 save percentage in 39 games. Marc-Andre Fleury has seen everything in a career that includes both great and abysmal playoff performances. The option to turn to Gustavsson is great, but this series could be close enough that one bad goaltending performance could make the difference.
Special Teams
Dallas’ power play has been excellent, scoring 9.40 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, ranking second in the league. It was even better down the stretch, scoring 11.16 goals per 60 after the trade deadline. Part of the unit’s strength is balance. Robertson, Benn, and Pavelski each had 13 power play goals and Hintz added nine. Heiskanen recorded 34 points on the power play, tying Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes for the lead among defensemen.
The Wild ranked 12th with 7.66 goals per 60 during five-on-four play, and while it was fading late in the season, some of that can be attributed to Kaprizov’s absence, as he led the Wild with 17 power play goals. Eriksson Ek contributed 12 power play goals while Zuccarello added nine and Boldy had eight.
Not only have the Stars excelled on the power play, but their penalty killing has been highly effective, ranking fourth in both expected goals against and actual goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play. The Wild ranked fifth in expected goals against but 12th in actual goals against.
Conclusion
While this series looks like it should be a competitive matchup between two quality teams, the Wild could be undermined by injuries, most notably to Eriksson Ek, a two-way threat who can’t be easily replaced. In a series this close, that pushes the edge to Dallas. Stars in 7.