MCKEEN’S 2023 NHL PROSPECT REPORT – #29 – Colorado Avalanche

Prospect System Ranking – 29^th

A Stanley Cup in the books, with an elite core at the beginning of their prime in MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen, who all rate among the very best at their position. Their quest to repeat was derailed by injuries and a surprising Seattle team in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. They have graduated three first rounders from 2018 (Martin Kaut, 16th) and 2019 (Bowen Byram, 4^th and Alex Newhook, 16^th) and traded another in Justin Barron for Artturi Lehkonen, who was a useful piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle. They have done a good job of development, but the pipeline is not deep at this point. Surpising Nikolai Kovalenko had a tremendous year but remains in Russia. Jean Luc-Foudy has exceeded expectations nicely as a third-round pick and may be close to the NHL in the next two years.

The Avalanche still retain their first-round picks for the upcoming three seasons, but that is likely to change. Captain Gabriel Landeskog is slated to miss all of next season, along with some other glaring holes that remained unfulfilled by last season departing free agents, most notably Nazem Kadiri. The hope had been that Alex Newhook would be able to step into the second line role, but he struggled to carry that load. It is unlikely the Avalanche will risk that chance again and look for them to be active with the resources they have. By the time they picked in 2022, it was in the sixth round. They only have four picks for 2023, so you can count on a similar scenario.

1. Nikolai Kovalenko

The son of former NHLer Andrei Kovalenko, Nikolai took a massive leap forward this season in the KHL. Joining his third different team in three years, which could have gone poorly, turned out to be exactly what the doctor ordered, as his scoring totals exploded with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod. He had the highest point-per-game total among all KHL players under the age of 25 and was the top scorer on his team. With his NHL bloodlines and being a two-time MHL champion, the foundation was always there for him to break out as a pro, but this much success was a surprise. He loves to have the puck on his stick and lead play driving, and repeatedly attacks the opposing net with pace and purpose. He should be ready for a role with Colorado whenever he decides that he wants to cross the pond.

2. Jean-Luc Foudy

Foudy has always had elite speed, and he is a fascinating case study for how far a prospect can go when they have that one defining trait in particular. It took him some time to really understand how to translate that dangerous tool into actual scoring results and not just wasted energy, but he seems to have figured it out now, producing at nearly a point-per-game clip this year. His hands and vision have notably caught up a lot with his feet, which not only help him do more actual damage when he creates separation space for himself, they also allow him to have more of an impact when the play has to slow down, especially on the powerplay. He'll be a full-time NHLer soon enough, and it's scary to think of how well he could mesh with the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

3. Sean Behrens

If Behrens were a little bigger he would have gone a lot higher than 61^st overall in the 2021 draft. You'd be hard-pressed to find a single scout who has seen him who wouldn't make time for him and how he plays, but the question has always been around how likely it is that he can become an impact player in the NHL. Defensemen his age don't get much more smart or competitive, he never seems to back down from a challenge, and the brighter the spotlight, the better he plays (see: Denver's 2022 NCAA championship). He competes hard in all three zones and rarely makes any mistakes. The lack of size, the lack of high-end skating, and the lack of true offensive pop make him a little hard to project at the sport's highest level, however, underestimate him at your own peril.

4. Oskar Olausson

There's no denying that Olausson has talent, but the actual results of his play have been quite inconsistent since his draft year. Feed him the puck in the offensive zone and give him enough time and space and there's a good chance he'll make the other team pay, primarily through the hard, accurate release of his wrist shots and one-timers. Unfortunately, he runs into troubles creating scoring opportunities for himself or his teammates, and his-off puck play leaves a lot to be desired. Puck watching and low pace are two bad habits that have persisted for a while and still need to be corrected. In fairness, he has played in six different leagues spread across three different countries over the past three seasons, which surely made it harder to really get his game to the highest level that it could be at right now.

5. Justus Annunen

As much of a built-in advantage that large goalies can have when it comes to naturally taking up a lot of the net, the challenge is supplementing that size with enough corresponding quickness, athleticism, flexibility and reflexes. That's the challenge that Annunen has been trying to overcome ever since his draft year, and while progress has undeniably been made, there is still a lot of work left to do. He relies on a pretty straightforward blocking style of goaltending, keeping focused on what's happening in front of him, trying to stay square to shooters, and letting his butterfly do the work. However, if teams can get him moving around in the crease, they can open him up, and they figure that out quickly. Colorado is thin for prospect goaltending depth, so Annunen will keep getting starts in the AHL to see how much progress he can make.

6. Ben Meyers

The Avalanche signed Meyers straight out of college in 2022, he scored his first NHL goal in his first NHL game, and while he wasn't actually eligible to play for Colorado during their Stanley Cup championship run it must have been both a surreal and valuable experience being around that team. Now in his first full year as a pro he is firmly a part of their attempt at a repeat. He is a sharp-minded forward who never takes a shift off and works hard for every inch of his ice. While he doesn't generate a lot of offense or really excel in a defensive role, a coach can send him over the boards with a lot of trust. The hope is that Meyers can elevate his game to the kind of high level it reached at the end of his time in the NCAA.

7. Sampo Ranta

Ranta now has 18 total NHL games under his belt between the regular season and the playoffs but is still searching for his first career point at that level. Colorado probably isn't too concerned about that, though, and will likely keep giving him looks because he has produced offense at lower levels and has a combination of attributes that should lead to further results. He has long, strong skating strides that can create separation moving north or south, he can use his frame and reach to fend off opponents and possesses some finishing touch. That, really, is his game in a nutshell, and he hasn't diversified it much or added layers to it, even going back as far as his draft year. He knows what he is and sticks to what he knows, which can be both a good and a bad thing at times.

8. Ryan Merkley

The enigmatic Merkley struggled to live up to his potential while he was a member of the Sharks organization, and requested a trade just four and a half years after San Jose used a 1st-round pick on him. The good news is that his wish was granted. The bad news is that he is struggling just as much as he did before, if not moreso. He was drafted in the 1^st round in 2018 because of his superb offensive vision, puck skill, playmaking and shot, despite red flags with his discipline and defending. To succeed he always needed his pros to shine enough to outweigh his cons, but ever since turning pro that hasn't happened. His skills aren't translating. The clock is ticking, and Merkley is running out of time to figure these problems out find a way to prove that he belongs in the NHL.

9. Alex Beaucage

Beaucage has been pretty quiet in his two years since turning pro, but there were times in the QMJHL where he was able to really elevate his game and sometimes even looked like one of the best players in the league, so the Avalanche are hoping that he will be able to figure out how to reach those kinds of levels again. He is a toolsy winger with size, though his goal-scoring really stands out as his biggest asset. His shot can be outright terrifying and unstoppable on occasion. The challenge for him now is fully understanding the difference between scoring goals at the two different levels, as he has less time and space to work with now and can't shrug off opposing defenders as easily as before. Utilizing his size better would also be a welcome change. Beaucage is a prospect worth being patient for.

10. Colby Ambrosio

Ambrosio led his USHL team in goals and points in his draft year as a 17-year-old and was a dynamic force, so it's a bit of a mystery as to why he hasn't been able to find a similar level of effectiveness yet after three years at Boston College. He's a quick player, but not necessarily a fast one, and that distinction is important. He can use his quickness to capitalize on small windows of opportunity created by lucky bounces or small mistakes, but he isn't really adept at creating opportunities at this level. And if he can't do it in the NCAA, how will he be able to do it in the NHL? As easy as it is to commend Ambrosio's high pace and work rate, those attributions can only do so much when a player has a natural size disadvantage.